PolarWarsaw

To be honest, a quick heavy covering of snow followed by the reset button to take the risk of a better reset is fine by me. This pattern, whilst cold and frosty is a waste of winter when it comes to proper, accumulating, snow. I've had 2 sugar dustings this 'winter' so far..and both of them combined wouldn't even be half a CM. That's not good enough, nowhere near it. At least Monday/Tuesday show some proper snow before it washes away. Hopefully the CFS and so on are pointing in the right direction for next month, as Ian has mentioned with regards to MOGREPS and GLOSEA.

There are plenty of places you could go. Alaska is cold for 9 months of the year, but it can get quite warm right in the middle of summer. You have various places all over North America. Denver/Salt Lake City can be 35c for a lot of the summer, or certainly hovering around 30 with the chance of storms not far away..then in winter it can be snowy and freezing. Parts of downtown Denver have had 30 inches of snow already this season and it's only half way through over there. Then you have places like Ohio, upstate new york, Michigan, MA. Always 25-30c in the summer, good chance of storms and then LES during the winter giving 100" inches in parts surrounding water. Finding a good balanced climate, is not hard - apart from in the UK. Where you struggle to get one decent covering of snow for 5 winters, then you get 2 in 2 and so on - it's ruddy crap. Tiny smattering overnight, looks more like a thick frost than snow. Very cold for the next couple of days and then rain/milder uppers early next week onwards.

Nothing here...not even rain.

80 or so ASL here, a power station, living in a ditch compared to surrounding areas. It's going to be a sleety/rainy or very dry night. Off to bed shortly I think.

That makes it worse for me! I can already tell it's going to be one of those nights where I can see the clouds in the distance full of the white stuff, meanwhile it's bloody dry here. Come tomorrow I'll have to sit through pictures of places I could drive too within 10 minutes covered in snow!

Yes, I fancy this too from all charts and forecasts I have seen. Sure things change late in the game and we may get lucky. I doubt it though. To be honest, I'm hoping we get the atlantic back in next week and then look at GP's torpedo at the end of the month. All long term charts are suggesting a mid-atlantic ridge up into Greeland for February. Let's hope this is true.

Literally having a laugh with this image. That is literally, 20 miles west of here.

Looking at the charts this morning. I'm happy to take the GFS. It gives most people a good couple of hours of snow before the milder air wins out. Most people want snow not just cold weather, so I'm fairly sure that would go down well for most people. The UKMO/ECM look like a slow painful strangling of the cold and no snowy breakdown. No thanks for me. It now looks virtually nailed on that we see cold and frost until Monday or so, perhaps midweek if the UKMO/ECM are correct. Then it's a breakdown of sorts, a 'reset' and we aim for GP's torpedo for the months end. Plenty to be happy about IMO.

Warning out for the very western reaches tonight. NMM looks like things stay over Wales in more of a Northerly air stream at the moment though. West is best tonight, I suspect places like Shropshire/Shrewsbury/Welsh Borders down into Worcester and then into the SW could find their way to a couple of CM's overnight tonight. Suspect we are too far east and will miss out.

Well I have to be honest. I'm a snow fan. I don't crave 10 days of frost and sunny days, I can have that in the summer for 3 months when I don't need to make the effort to wrap up. Tonight's charts are great for a cool off and they are indeed, part of what we would hope for. However, I can't help but feel like these charts, followed by a potential breakdown of sorts put us back another couple of weeks to see accumulating and/or proper snow. That's January almost gone and by that stage, you only have another month or so to get your fix. With the way things are in this country, that's a lot to fall nicely on our lap in a short space of time. I'm all for long Frosty and dry periods, but preferably after a nice snowfall. I'd sooner have a quick few CM's from an advancing front from the west or a 3 day toppler if it meant having snow on the ground than I would a week of Frost.

Spot on. Same with anomolies. They give you a small hint of a 'broadbrush, general pattern - but much like Steve said, don't deal with shortwaves, the fluid nature of patterns, short term differences etc. UKMO has had this nailed for about a week or so now. As far as I'm concerned, apart from picking the odd trend up with regards to breakdowns, the GFS has been wholly hopeless for about 2 weeks.

After a foot in some parts over the last few days, Buffalo and parts of Upstate New York look in the firing line for another round of LES snow in the next 48 hours. We can but hope huh.

I see a chilly week coming up, some frost, a bit of snow for higher elevations in the north. It looks currently very much like it will be incredibly marginal in built up areas without elevation from Northern England southwards. Next week see's a split between high pressure and frosty nights or a return to a westerly regime. Let's hope we see GP's torpedo showing up soon.

Snow event for the lakes/Chicago and Detroit this evening. Up to 6 inches looking likely.

Well, it pains me to say but today has been a dreadful day for a prolonged period of cold. Obviously the ECM dangles another carrot, but frankly, anyone chasing that right at this moment has serious will power - I can't be bothered to chase another carrot, another garden path right now. There is no way of dressing it up unfortunately, what has gone from a potentially memorable cold spell has downgraded to a regular chilly spell, cold dry days and chilly nights. Something may push in from the East thereafter, but I wouldn't be confident putting a single penny on any of it, especially considering the GFS (the constant trend spotter) didn't want much to do with it on the 12z. Once again, every single thing possible that could have gone wrong with the cold weather getting to the UK - has. I love everything GP has to say, trust him more than anybody on the site in terms of predicting how things can and might change with the atmosphere on this site - however, Steve's point wrt to shortwaves and patterns are spot on. You can have no Vortex and high pressure everywhere around the northern hemisphere, but if you have a shortwave diverting your fun, then it doesn't matter one single jot. Have a good one folks.

Morning, Well the charts did what I feared they may overnight, but they actually went too far the other way and allowed the Azores low to virtually ruin every run in the mid-latter time period. I've gone from fearing it may get in the way to thinking that the models don't know how to handle it yet and think they are probably over-playing it slightly. The fact that forecasters on Twitter are gung-ho for a DECENT Cold SPELL, not just a 2-3 day snap suggests that we may see a few upgrades yet. This pattern shouldn't be sniffed at still, it's going to bring us at least 3-4 days of jacket weather and the potential for a few flurries in select places. If anything, this MIGHT work out better in the long run with a few harsh frosts cooling soil and the earth down for a potential Torpedic assault later in January.

Still think there will be snow around next week, just nowhere near what was potentially on offer 48 hours or so ago.

A fairly dissapointing end to the day. Let's see what the Euro's bring in the morning...I for one will not be surprised if they tone things down on the cold and delay it further...but like Steve and CC said the other night, they couldn't see the models backtracking after the Greenland High had been modelled to tone down. I can't see the bitter cold coming to fruition - hope I'm very much wrong. Night folks. Who is on for the 0z?

Yeah...T-144...7 days away...just like the cold and snow chances were....48 hours ago. They should be moving FORWARD, getting closer to us. Any experienced model watcher (and I'm not even remotely experienced in comparison to some) will ALWAYS advise caution on looking at charts at that kind of range. Lowland England, without cold prior to a snow event and without any sort of elevation GENERALLY need -6 uppers to feel 'comfy' about PPN falling as snow. Uppers look great at T144 tonight...but they did 2 days ago...and just to re-iterate my point, they haven't been moved forward, they've gone backwards and watered themselves down.

IMO we have. As mentioned in my post, just 48 hours ago the ECM showed cold uppers reaching the south coast by late Sunday night and Monday morning. The solution, was in with a chance was obviously the smoothest possible route to potential cold. Since then, we have slowly but surely pushed back the cold, or the deep cold uppers that are 'comfy' for lowland England snow right back to Monday...Tuesday...then Wednesday..and then today they have been phased out virtually all together, right into the deep realms of FI. Once that starts happening, you do start to wonder whether getting the freezing, truly deep, outstanding charts in this period of weather is going to happen. Obviously, it's still a case of getting the cold here and seeing what happens, but if the charts from 48 hours or so ago were 10/10 then the OVERALL picture today is much more uneasy at a 6.5 or so. We have gone from a solution that looks clean and smooth, to one that has hurdles and big questions over certain periods of time. Let's get the cold here first, but I think this will turn out to be a rather regular 'cold and frosty' sort of week, nothing to look back on or remember particularly fondly. However, I'm in line with BFTP/Tamara/GP/RJS in that I think a colder 'second bite' is on it's way at some point between now and mid February - probably the end of the last week in Jan.

Well, another interesting day of modeling. Unfortunately, it looks to me like the chances of the 'deeper' cold keep getting pushed back and back, with the phasing out of the proper bitter uppers, replaced by uppers condusive to snow for most, but quite a bit of lowland England would be right on the margins of rain/sleet and snow overall today. The GFS TENDS to be a trend picker and 3 of it's last 4 runs have delayed the meaningful cold from getting here. Just 2 nights ago we saw bitter uppers making there way in to cover the country by next Tuesday...then it became Wednesday...today they have been phased down and pushed back even more. That being said, I expect next week to be much colder, with frosts and the chance of a few flurries, more snow in specific and expected locations than most. Overall, a turn for the better and I like the way that RJS is thinking, remembering that we still have GP's torpedo to come in 2-3 weeks time - something we can all potentially keep ourselves excited with over the next few weeks. We have overall edged away from dramatic cold, truly exciting SNOWY charts today somewhat. So to me it looks like a cold spell at first...with a 50-50 chance of either mild/atlantic or something truly epic coming thereafter. As they say, let's get the cold in first and see what happens from then on in/ Plenty of model watching to come methinks folks!

The low plays ball on this run...but as far as I can see, each run that gets closer to the time frame, waters the cold uppers out and delays them coming in.. the ECM last night and a couple of other runs in the last 48 hours had -7 uppers down over the centre of the spine of the country by Tuesday...then last night it's Wednesday...now it's Thursday and even then - they are modified. Not to be negative, the runs are very good - but these small features shouldn't go un-noticed. Its another very good run. But as far as I can see the main trend for today so far seems to be; - Delay of the proper cold getting in. - Snow chances reduced for the south/centre of England - Colder uppers being modfieid to make things more marginal.. ONE HUGE Tick for the 6z.. - The low plays ball (thank god). Wrong. If someone said to me... I'll give you a 3 day cold spell, with temps hovering just on the marginal bracket, but you will get 2 systems that produce 5cm and then 8cm of accumulating snow...or I get 10 days of ice days, that are sunny and frosty but don't bring snow to anyone bar coast fringes and Scotland then I would take the first one with my eyes closed, enjoy it and then search for another spell. The greater majority of people want SNOW, not cold and frost.

Slightly 'MEH' runs comparatively overnight for me. Now, don't get me wrong. Things still look cold and frosty for a period of next week, but snow chances have been reduced for a good chunk of the country on this mornings runs, they are certainly more marginal anyway. The 18z picked up on a smaller ridge last night, but this morning we have a spoiler low down to the SW and this makes me feel very uneasy. If the low wants to play ball, we need it to be shallower, moving slowly north east and in the shape of an oval - not a small football. That's definetely what we need to watch on the 6z and particularly the 12z this evening - if it's going to play ball it's weaker, slower moving and less of an issue...if it doesn't it will blow up and potentially shorten/ruin snow chances for a lot of low level England. Let's see if it's a trend or just the models blowing up a low to our west/south west as per usual.

As mentioned earlier, nothing set in stone as much as we would want it to be. 18z isn't the most reliable run of the day, but it hasn't been known to pick up trends (something that the GFS is well known for doing). Personally, I think this run will be closer to how things end up being. I can't see the beautiful synoptics of the 12z coming to fruition - BUT, I also don't expect this to be a 2 day toppler. I think we will be somewhere in the middle. 3-5 days of much colder weather. Frosts for ALL and snow for favoured areas of Scotland/Ireland - these look a cert to me. Let's hope we see a bigger wedge ridging into Greenland come the 0z. Can't see it myself, but we definetely have a good shot at it. Night all.

The Key phrase there in my post mate is 'AS SHOWN'. You would probably get about a 10%< of tonight's FULL ECM synoptics coming to fruition. Now that's not certain parts of the run, but that's them falling into place perfectly, in the exact smooth transitional mode you saw in tonight's run. The main thing to take from the models tonight is that cold weather of SOME SORT, looks almost nailed on for a period of next week. Now that could be short, transient, it could be wet or dry, it could be frosty and sunny, it could be snowplough material - however, taking those details for granted at this period is a BIG mistake and normally the main ingredient to the 'toy throwing brigade'. Just a word of caution that's all! I hope more than anyone tonight's ECM comes off as shown!