lukemc

Yes and I do remember Ian Brown saying before last winter when he gave his winter forecast how a even a 1995-96 winter was in his opinion no longer possible, never mind a 1981/82, 1978/79 or 1962/63! how times have changed since then LOL! Even Ian seems to be cold ramping now! You have got to understand, that in climatological terms 1995 is just like yesterday, climate change takes a long time to take effect. Anyway which winter would you say that this most closely resembles, 1991, 1995, 1982, 1979 or 1963? Luke

Hi, Is this snow for later tomorrow frontal snowfall? with bands of snow moving up northwards/northwestwards? (as opposed to snow showers?) And also what sort of minimum temps could I expect tonight (South Liverpool)? Would -8C be possible? Luke

Hi, Any possibility of any further snowfall at the weekend for me (South Liverpool)? And also will the cloud clear to allow our temps to drop - does anyone know what the South Liverpool/Garston temp is at the moment? Also the only thing that I don't like is the fact that somebody mentioned that any snow events after the weekend could be marginal I am worried because that could endanger our snowcover with rain - does anyone else agree? Luke

Hi, Just asking how much does cloud cover affect night time minimas, does it make a big difference, for example can low mimima still occur with small amounts of cloud cover? Luke

Hi, Does anyone know what the lowest temperature recorded at Liverpool Airport last night was? I know they where recording -7C at midnight when I went to bed but what was thier lowest? Did they make -9 or -10? Luke

Hi, With the surface cold deeply embedded across the UK at the moment, I am interested if say we get an inversion situation with milder upper temperatures encroaching over this upper air would it be possible for us to get North American style ice storms or widespread freezing rain events that could cause havoc with power supplies etc.? Luke

Hi, Why is it that we get very cold temperatures by our standards, pushing negative double figures, we are still below freezing by midday, yes, midday and then the precipitation is in marginal territory with RAIN, yes RAIN a real possibility! Surely anything falling out of the sky in this sort of severe cold by our standards has GOT to be snow, and even a kid could work that one out, but I have a physics degree so I can analyse things logically but even I am puzzled by some of the temperature rises etc. being reported today and the marginality situation? For example some stations where reporting around -6 degress or lower last night, and where still below freezing by mid afternoon and then temps shot up and where almost pushing 5 degrees C by one stage and even now temperatures have not dropped to below freezing in most cases even with the loss of sunlight - We seem to have most of the things in place a) we have the shortest period of daylight that we could possibly have we have a very cold airmass over us with -10 uppers d) we have had a bitterly cold night and one of the hardest frosts for a long time that should allow the cold to imbed e) we are within the correct thicknesses i.e. 528 dam f) we have a COLD front approaching that should have even COLDER air approaching from a COLD direction - the North! so what is missing here is thier a conspiracy against us getting snow or something? It will be intresting to get an explanation because some of the things on here puzzle me for example I heard people saying that Saturday would be marginal (I could understand that one), but thier was going to be nothing marginal about this week at all as very cold air would now have digged in! - it would be all snow no ifs no buts! Update - I have seen snow falling at my location in South Liverpool any more to come? Luke

Hi, I am in South Liverpool, I have seen the low temperatures for here (around -5C) what sort of temperatures could I expect to see by morning? is -10C possible or if not -8 or -9? Also will we be in line for an "ice day" tomorrow where temps stay below freezing all day? Luke

Hi, Looking at the radar I can see a line of snow showers over Yorkshire that seem to be coming in our direction, some appear to be making it across the penninnes is thier a possiblity that we see something today snow wise? Luke

Hi, Really? Is their some sort of Fohn effect setting up or something? It seems quite a shame that our area is cursed by these warm temperatures preventing precipitation falling as snow when a lot of the rest of the country and even our region has conditions which are conductive to snowfall. As I have said, we have had quite a few good falls during previous cold spells so why not assume it will change as the colder air digs in, -10 upper temps are modelled aren't they? Anyway what time do you expect the cold air to undercut, and do you think we get some snowfall after it occurs (say later on this evening)? Luke

Really with cold upper temps that should be conductive for snow to fall - is the reason why you don't see much by the way of snowfall because of lack of precipitation or because temps/dewpoints may be too high for snow to fall? I thought this spell was supposed to be colder than the last it certainly seems to be as far as the upper temps progged. Luke

Hi, As a matter of interest what sort of synoptical set up caused the December 2000 snow event which brought a fair dumping of snow to my area? Was this frontal snowfall or from showers (convective)? And also March 2006 - what was the set up for then? Luke

Is it true that our area (Liverpool) is one of the warmest places in the country at the moment, and why is this so? And why did today have a higher maximum than yesterday when we where still under the influence of the low pressure system, surely the cold air should be well embedded now and we have fairly clear skies I would expect temps to plummet yes I know we are near to the coast and this can mean milder temperatures than what can be experienced inland but did we have this problem of marginality etc. in this area in the big cold spells of the past like 1962/63, 1978/79, 1981/82 or even 1995/96? It did not stop us from getting big dumping then did it? So would a situation where we are almost at 4 or 5C and a lot of the country below freezing occur in the past? Be interesting to here what your views our on this? Luke

But aren't we supposed very low upper temperatures from now on? like -5 and below and aren't these forecast to drop to around -8 or below? And also we should be well within 528 dam line now with that being well to the south of the UK? And with winds coming from the north-east (therefore reducing the chance of warmer air from the Irish Sea getting into the mix) - I would say this mostly goes in favour of any precipitation we get in the next few days falling as snow surely? And also we now seem to have sub zero dewpoints. Also a question - if the air temperature is say 3C and a sub zero dewpoint wouldn't that fall as snow providing all the other parameters are met (upper temps, thicknesses etc.)? I thought the main criteria for preceipitation falling as snow was the dewpoint or wetbulb temperature being below freezing, not the actual air temperature? I do know that for snow to settle the temp has to be at about 1C or below is that correct? Luke

Hi, Regarding previous snow events in the Liverpool/Merseyside area this decade does anyone know what the synoptical set up that caused them, and how well they where forecast for example: December 2000 the snow event between Xmas and New Year did this come from a Northerly, or a even a Polar Low? - was the snowfall mainly frontal or showers coming in from the Irish Sea and did it occur at night or day? Also the March 2006 event I think it was on 12th March that year what sort of set up was this? I do remember snow being forecast the night before but I was surprised to see that much snow in March was that the deepest fall in my area this decade (i.e. 2000s)? I think we must have had around 15cm - does anyone else remember it? And I think we also got some lying snow in April 2008 was that the latest date we have seen lying snow here? I think being April did most of it melt rather quickly (longer daylight hours)? Luke

Hi HotCuppa when you said the dam line moving further south does that mean that colder air is going to move in and therefore temps and dps will drop? Also what is your temp and dp currently and has it been falling? Should we expect a possible transition of ppn to snow overnight what have you got now is it sleet like some others are reporting for example on the midlands forums some have been reporting a repid transition from rain/sleet to heavy snow what do you think the next few days will bring? Luke

Hi, As a matter of interest does anyone know why this event has been so marginal with respect to snowfall as I was expecting it to be rain south of the M4 or whereabouts and then snow further north of that line and if the precipitation was to reach as far here it should have been wintry in nature, it isn't like we have the effects of the irish sea as the wind direction is supposed to be from the east now, so why aren't dew points dropping like they did the other night when we got the snowfall? Luke

Hi, I did notice a BBC weather forecast that had a band of snow across Northern England including my area on New Years Eve - white new year anyone? do you see it coming off? By the way we did have a "White" new year in Liverpool in 1997 - does anyone remember that with snow falling on new years eve/day? Was that caused by an Easterly or a Northerly? And also do you know when their was last a White Christmas in Liverpool - I do defiantly remember it snowing on Christmas Day relatively recently (within the last 15 years) but I cannot remember what year it was does anyone know? Also, now onto the possibility of snow for tonight is thier a possibly that the rain will transition to snow later on in my area and if not will thier be some more snow opportunities over the next week or so? I would think that thier could be quite a few chances considering it is going to get colder and in these situations is it true that the possibility of snow can pop up at short notice? A final question, does anyone know if a "Polar Low" has ever brought snow too my area? Luke

Hi, Do you think we could see some very low min temperatures in our area during this upcoming cold spell e.g. pushing negative double digits? For example I did notice that Liverpool Airport recorded -10C in December 1995 I don't think we have had a -10 since then, does anyone know any different? Also does anyone know what the record minimum temperature for the Merseyside/Liverpool area is I believe that possibly -15C was reached in 1981 but can anyone confirm that? It would be nice to see that record rivaled even if we do not get much more in the way of snowfall. Anyway, talking of snowfall being affected by temps why did we have such a large increase in due points and temps in the early hours after getting down into severe frost territory - usually if we get down to -5 or below it takes a while for the temps to recover and dew points even longer what has come into play is it the wind direction? Surprising when it is still dark at that time of morning? Also it did notice that Metcheck had our area (South Liverpool) down for a high probability for moderate to heavy snow for tonight and tomorrow not sure if that has changed now and their was a guy who lives in St Helens on the TWO forums that said he was predicted over 24 hours of continuous snowfall with accumulation of a foot on Metcheck! Maybe that is a bit OTT but if the PPN did get heavy enough could cold air undercutting come into play bringing dew points and temps down especially after dark - and also wouldn't the wind coming from a more easterly component help with less chance of modification by the Irish Sea? Luke

Hello again, Did Liverpool get any lying snow during the January 1984 "cold zonal" spell and if yes how much did we get? Luke

Hi, Just wondering what would happen if FI to deep FI on the ECM and GFS where to come off somebody posted that on the GFS 12z run the Greenland high fails to link up with the Scandinavian high and this could open the door the the Atlantic coming back in but I can't see why if this happened it would necessarily mean a quick return to zonality can anyone explain as the greenland high would still be in situ anyway can anyone explain? Anyway is their any zonality progged in FI in any of tonights 12z runs? And if we did get a return to zonality I don't necessarily think it will be of the mild variety for example last January was an example of "cold zonality" and we even got some lowland snowfall out of it where I live in Liverpool and could anyone see a January 1984 style scenario occurring that would be interesting!

Hi, I am just wondering if it is more easier to model or forecast significant snow events in a continental climate like that of the North Eastern USA than in our climate taking for example the Northeaster winter storm that gave New York and Washington a good dumping last week would it have been less marginal than our snow situations for example I noticed that surface temps during this event where not exactly that low for example about -2 or -1C in NYC but what would have dps and 850s been like? And was most of the snowfall in NYC, Washington etc. during this event frontal (rather than convective) in nature for example is it similar to our battleground situations between very cold and milder air that causes it. Luke

Hi, One of the things that intrigues me is the differences between different climates in particular the difference between continental and maritime climates including how synoptics can differ in these climates. So I have decided to discuss the differences in the climate between the UK/BI and the Northeastern USA. So I do know that the NE USA has on average, colder and snowier winters than the UK, with hotter and more humid summers. I have a few questions though about the specifics of the two climates, for example overall would you say that do they get as much frontal precipitation as we do in the NE United States, and do they get any frontal rainfall in the summer (I know they do get a lot of convectional rainfall though showers and thunderstorms). Also is it true that when a mild spell does occur in the Northeastern states during the winter, it can be as mild or even milder than the UK, for example I have read that 25 degrees C has been recorded in New York in February which I would imagine would be way above the record high for the UK during February does anyone know why this would be the case. Also, for example New York City when it gets snowfall in the winter is most of its snowfall frontal or convectional (like lake effect snow). For example when NYC got the big dumping last week from the Northeaster storm, is that snowfall frontal in nature (rather than convectional) and is it similar to the battlegrounds that we sometimes get with a very cold airmass and a milder airmass doing battle? Also during some Northeaster storms I remember NYC getting rain rather than snow (with Upstate NY getting tons) is this because they can sometimes be effected by a warm sector? And is also is NYC/Long Island/New Jersey milder in winter than most of upstate New York and is this because of Atlantic influence? Also how many Ice Days do they get per winter? And I have also read that the changes in temperature from day to day can be far more dramatic than they are here, for example can it sometimes be 30C one day and 15C the next (or visa versa) when a front passes though? And also how do the summers in the NE US compare to ours, yes I know that they are on average hotter than ours (for example average daytime highs of 25C) but are they more settled than ours and are they more sunny than ours? It would be interesting to here you thoughts of experiencing the two climates an to point out any further differences you have experienced. Luke

Hi, Is it possible we could see some more snow next week as some of this evenings chart output places the low pressure further north? And if we do get any will it be convectional showers or frontal and how much could we expect? Would Tuesday into Wednesday be the best bet? Also I an in Garston as I have said just asking will be get an air frost tonight with temps going below freezing? And if not can we expect a few this week? Luke