lukemc

Hi, Would that mean that this would be the coldest February since 1996? Luke

So do you think that widespread 10C+ is possible before 1st March based purely on the latest output (including Northern areas)? Or do you thing that Northern areas at least will have to wait until March for the first 10C of 2010 (remember many places up north have not been in double figures yet this year!) I think where I am it will be at least the first week of March before we record double figures (I am from Liverpool) - don't think we got above 3C today. Luke

Yeah so do you think that mild by the end of the month is nailed on now? Strangely some would not be implying that if a cold outcome was showing in FI, remember it is FI so expecting a mild outcome is hopecasting just as much as expecting a cold one IMO especially when we have a stratospheric warming event and an NAO which is progged to stay negative for the foreseeable! No sign of mild in the reliable timeframe! Anyway would this attack from the SW result in a battleground snow event if it came off as progged on the ECM - could it be something rather widspread? Luke

Hi, But even if that was the case the main band is quite slow moving so the precipitation should last longer than you think - remember the event just before Christmas where we ended up getting a few cm which was also from a front moving in from the SW the band did not seem very wide but we got a fair hour or two of snow out of it. That event started of as rain/drizzle but when the heavier ppn arrived it quite quickly changed to snow - do you think that could also happen this time. Anyway it would be nice to see one more snow event this winter before Spring arrives proper it will be a good way to finish of what as been a very good winter as far as snow and cold is concerned. Anyway what is the latest on the snow situation over the weekend - are the models still showing the potential for a big snow event on Saturday and Sunday as they where showing yesterday? How much do you think we could get if that came off?

Hi, So what time is the PPN expected to arrive in our neck of the woods? Will it be after 5pm? And if it snows will we get a few hours of snowfall? If we get snowcover how long should it last with a frost predicted overnight it should last at least until tomorrow morning I would assume. Also in replying to Backtracks post about wet snow being unsuitable for making snowmen - I thought that wet snow was better for making snowballs and snowmen than dry (powdery) snow because it sticks together more easily (dry snow tends to just fall apart easily so it is not as easy to make snowballs etc) so if you get quite a bit of accumulating wet snow you should be ok? Luke

Hi, If we get some snow in the next few days when would be the best time too look out for it? Tomorrow? Tomorrow night or Wednesday and Thursday - which is looking best for snow at the moment? Is it possible we could see some frontal snowfall as that front moves back west into the cold air? Are the parameters expected to be ok for us I notice that we should under -5 uppers by tomorrow how are dewpoints looking for our area (Liverpool etc) - what is the wind direction at the moment I think the winds are coming from the South West - would that reduce the chance of Irish Sea modification what is the wind direction expected to be for the next few days? Are the irish sea SSTs colder now than they were in December and should that reduce the chance of modification increasing our chances of seeing snowfall? Luke

What you also must remember is the outlook in the models although not particularity cold outlook by the standards we have just had in the likes January, is showing the potential for quite a few marginal snow events in the reliable timeframe. Some of the biggest snowfalls we have seen in this country in recent years have come from marginal situations when uppers where not particularly low (e.g. the likes of March 2006 yes in March not February! - one of the biggest falls for Liverpool (where I am from) in the 2000s), and where rain instead of snow was forecast just a few hours before hand so although it could rain heavy equally is could snow heavy even down to low ground in places. Luke

So an early spring then in your opinion LOL! Remember we can still get cold and snow into March and even sometimes into April (remember April 2008?) Anyway I do not think thier is any teleconnection support for anything mild until at least the first week of March! Luke

Hi, How do you think things are doing for my part of the world this week (I am from Liverpool) in the North West - looking at those charts posted above we are in the 522 thickness zone and dew points are progged to be conductive to snowfall at least for a time and I have also noticed the NAE/NMM charts show the ppn as snow over the Irish Sea on Tuesday morning so do you think that we could actually get something wintry or snowy out of this? Also it was posted that their is a possibility later in the week of fronts moving in from the SW hitting colder air to our north, this sounds very similar to the situation that we had just before Christmas (23rd December) which gave us some quite good snowfall in my area and gave us some lying snow on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. So do you think I am in with a chance of seeing something rather good snow wise before this winter comes to a conclusion? Luke

Hi, This is a pretty interesting video it is filmed at the McMurdo station (an American base) in the Antarctic yes it looks nice and warm inside that building - the heating bill must be astronomical! But just look what happens when this lady opens the back door apparently they have a scale to measure the weather conditions there Condition 1 is the worst that means a windchill of at least -60C or winds of at least gale force (55 knots) - would you even think about going outside in that what do you think: Pretty amazing stuff ah! Here is another one actually going outside in such weather: I would say even the most ardent cold and snow lovers on these forums may find this a bit too cold to handle LOL! Luke

Hi, Just asking are parts of Mainland Europe near or adjacent to the UK (such as parts of France, Germany and the Benelux countries) more snowier on average in the winter? Because I thought that more "continental" areas are colder but drier in the winter but we have more precipitation but it is more marginal and more likely to fall as rain in those situations (with the possibility of convective showers of the North Sea too that nearby mainland Europe don't normally see) For example I remember that during the February 2009 snow event the UK and Ireland seemed to get the most out of that set up with a cold and snowy pattern, whilst Holland and Belgium seemed to be cold and dry, but for the same period in 2010 the exact opposite has occurred with the nearby parts of mainland Europe bearing the brunt of the snowfall whilst most of the UK (except the SE) remains cold and dry - why the difference is it due to the position of the HP and the trough? It would be interesting to see the average snowfall stats for those areas and compare them with the UK. Also question about the climates of Europe, is it true that the true continental climate in Europe does not begin until you reach the eastern part of Germany (into Eastern Europe) as I have read that some define a true continental climate as a climate that is able to maintain a fixed period of snowcover every winter down to low altitude, with at least one winter month with an average temperature at or below freezing, then surely going by this definition would you say that the western parts of Germany and Benelux have a more continental influenced variant of a maritime climate? Luke

Hi. My name is Luke and I come from Liverpool - I normally post on the North West discussion thread but as it is very quiet in thier at the moment, I have decided to pop into this thread as we are not that all that far away from North Wales and when we get snow North Wales normally gets it too. Do you think that I could see at least one more big snow event before winter is over with. Just asking for you opinion as it seems frustrating that we can't get a good set up for snowfall next week despite a lot of things in our favour (like a very southerly tracking jetstream, a -NAO set up, cold over mainland Europe, a retrogressing HP and a stratosphere warming event). What really puzzles me is that we have a low pressure moving in from a cold direction (it is not like it is your standard Atlantic zonal low) and we are still in mid February, not April but according to some - stating what the models are showing it still can't deliver! A good example would be to say that in 2006 many of us had the biggest snowfall of the winter almost into mid March which was almost a full month on from where we are now in this winter! Talking of March 2006 some on here have said that event was quite marginal with some realitivley warm uppers involved and does the set up for next week in any way resemble it? I would be interesting to see what the models where showing in the run up to the March 2006 event considering its marginality. Could it be possible that we end up with a surprise similar heavy snowfall over the next week or too? I not being particularly greedy for snow as we have had a lot by our standards this winter, but I am surprised that the set up for next week does not look likely to deliver the goods considering all the factors in our favour. Luke

Hi. Do you think that I could see at least one more big snow event before winter is over with. Just asking for you opinion as it seems frustrating that we can't get a good set up for snowfall next week despite a lot of things in our favour (like a very southerly tracking jetstream, a -NAO set up, cold over mainland Europe, a retrogressing HP and a stratosphere warming event). What really puzzles me is that we have a low pressure moving in from a cold direction (it is not like it is your standard Atlantic zonal low) and we are still in mid February, not April but according to some - stating what the models are showing it still can't deliver! A good example would be to say that in 2006 many of us had the biggest snowfall of the winter almost into mid March which was almost a full month on from where we are now in this winter! Talking of March 2006 some on here have said that event was quite marginal with some realitivley warm uppers involved and does the set up for next week in any way resemble it? I would be interesting to see what the models where showing in the run up to the March 2006 event considering its marginality. Could it be possible that we end up with a surprise similar heavy snowfall over the next week or too? I not being particularly greedy for snow as we have had a lot by our standards this winter, but I am surprised that the set up for next week does not look likely to deliver the goods considering all the factors in our favour. Luke

Hi, A question for you guys on here. Does a Stratospheric Warming Event mean an increased probability of colder and snowier conditions in North America as well as Europe? Is the cold and snowy pattern at the moment on the Eastern Seaboard of the USA also possibly stratospherically driven? Luke

Hi, Just expanding on what I said before does the outlook for next week in any way resemble that of March 2006? And if not then surely I would think that we could be in a pattern like that further down the line? Could we see another major "battleground" snow event before the winter is out? I am saying this because some tell me that the March 2006 event that resulted in substantial snowfall in my part of the world was also very marginal (with realitivly high uppers) like a lot of events like that are does anyone know what the models where predicting in the run up to that event? Because of that would it still be possible for the models to go back in our favour? Also is it true that the models have backed away from a -NAO too far west scenario that was being hinted at earlier last week? If that is the case then surely we should be looking down the barrel of another cold and snowy spell providing the NAO is still programmed to be negative (can anyone tell me what the latest NAO forecast is? Is it still programmed to be as negative as it was a few days ago). If that is the case I struggle to understand some of the negativity on here as I would think we would get a substantial snow event at some point? Luke

Hi, Just asking a question regarding next weeks low pressure system? Why would it seem that rain rather than snow would be likely for most of the country (except high ground) as we seem to have most or if not all of the building blocks in place for a cold and wintry spell of weather, we have a negative NAO that is negative (and trending deeply negative), a jet stream that is way way south of us over North Africa (surely this should allow the cold air build), a cold continent still and the retrogression of the high pressure system towards Greenland, in essence a Greenland High. And also you have got to remember that we are still Mid February, not April - the days are still quite short and as an example a few years ago we got the biggest snowfall of the winter in many areas (including mine in Liverpool!) in March (2006) - which was almost a full month on from the time we are now in the winter. So what puzzles me is why this event is looking light a non event in many areas as far as snow is concerned taking into account those factors just asking for a logical explanation also why do you think over the last two weeks or so the models have trended to downgrade cold/snowy weather as we get closer to the reliable timeframe, is it something to do with the programming of the various systems? Luke

Hello again, Do you think it would be possible that if say the cold becomes established and the high pressure then moves North West towards Greenland and then the Atlantic makes an incursion as the block moves west towards Canada (as hinted on the ECM output) we could see a very major snowfall on the scale of February 1996 (or even exceeding it)? Would it be possible to get a situation where we get our biggest snowdepths (in a single event) say since the late 1970s? I would be really nice to see such an event as it would really put the icing on the cake for this winter IMO firmly sealing it as one to remember! If we got an event like that I would not mind if it turned mild after that and Spring arrived! Does anyone else the the potential for such a "snowy breakdown" and when would be the best time to look out for it according to model guidance etc. Would early next week be a possible window say next Monday or Tuesday? If I couldn't have a Feb 1996 or better style event, a March 2006 would do me - can anyone tell me what the snowdepths where like in that event and February 1996 in the Merseyside area? Luke

Hi, I have read a lot of talk on here recently of a west based negative NAO pattern and the blocking high moving too far west allowing milder air from the Atlantic in? Is this why it turned milder in the second half of February 2009 after the cold and snowy first half of the month? And did it also happen in February 1991 as I believe the tail end of that month was milder (-NAO setup moving too far west?). Also I hear a lot of talk on here of "downgrades" but surely it is just the precipitation that as been downgraded, and not the cold! Surely we could get some very cold temperatures this week in some areas? An example would be early January 2009 when some places got to -12 or below with little or no snowcover under a largely dry HP setup. Also some are saying that the downgrade has occurred because the high is further south meaning more stable high pressure dominance, but the teleconnection signals suggest it will move NW towards Greenland, so wouldn't the fact that the high is further south mean that the cold would last longer because the high would take longer to retrogress? Then we could say it is an upgrade in the longer term? And also wouldn't that mean that the cold would embed itself for longer meaning that when say a breakdown from the Atlantic does occur we could get a very big snow event do you think that a February 1996 style event could be possible at the moment do you think that the synoptics shown in the charts are similar to early February 1996 I have read that thier was a lot of cold and dry weather before that event can anyone correct me on this? Luke

Hi, Was summer 1996 following of from the cold winter of 1995-96 a good summer i.e. better than the last three that we have had in terms of heat and sunshine? If that was the case would you be happy with a 1996 style summer this year as I would probably go for a 1996 style summer at the moment? Luke

Just to make a point I do not normally complain but have you noticed how polarised some of the posts have become on the main model thread recently? One minute you may have a post saying that we are going to have a prolonged severe cold spell based on these models, whereas the next you will get a post like it is looking like a "damp squib", "uninspiring", "nothing to right home about" based on the same models! It is like people contradicting each other making it very difficult to know which poster to believe! Why do you think this is? Do you think this is a sign of how spoiled we have become this winter with some now expecting severe cold and heavy snow as the norm in every cold spell and others getting depressed over it not being as good as it has been and putting their expectations to high? I am sure it would be different if we have had a mild December and January and this upcoming cold spell was looking to be the first cold/snowy spell of the winter! Do you think the mood would be a lot more positive on the model thread if that where the case? It would be nice to have a more impartial view for a change! Luke

Hi, Yes interesting potential for this week both cold and snow wise hopefully with some harsh frosts before we get some further snowfall. What sort of temperatures could we expect this week would temperatures of -4 or -5 be plausible for me considering that the wind is coming of the land rather than the Irish Sea helping to bring the temperatures down. Anyone on another topic I do not normally complain but have you noticed how polarised some of the posts have become on the main model thread recently? One minute you may have a post saying that we are going to have a prolonged severe cold spell based on these models, whereas the next you will get a post like it is looking like a "damp squib", "uninspiring", "nothing to right home about" based on the same models. It is like people contradicting each other making it very difficult to know which poster to believe! Do you think this is a sign of how spoiled we have become this winter with some now expecting severe cold and heavy snow as the norm in every cold spell and others getting depressed over it not being as good as it has been and putting their expectations to high? Luke

But even if we don't get much in the way of snow this week we should see our coldest temps since early January surely? What sort of temps could we expect in my area (Liverpool) could we get down to -5 or even below considering that the wind will be coming from the east so the airmass would be less likely to be modified by the Irish Sea? Also if we did get snow would even lower temperatures be possible and would it stay on the ground for more than a day or so considering the low temperatures? And I have heard a lot about ice days being less common in February due to the longer days and stronger sun but they are still possible even into March in some cases - what sort of synoptics are likely to result in ice days in February? Also does anyone see the potential for us being hit heavily by snow when the breakdown comes (e.g. from an attacking LP or a stalling front) like February 1996 if something like that happened it would certainly be the icing on the cake for us this winter agreed! Are the synoptics being modeled at the moment in anyway similar to early February 1996 - what was the synoptic situation before the Atlantic attacked then?

Hi. So is it likely that we will see our lowest temperatures since Early January next week then? What sort of temperatures can we expect next week could we expect widespread minima of -4C or -5C and below with some areas down to -10 or below? (of course lower if there is snowcover?) Also what sort of synoptics are required to bring ice days in February I keep hearing that the days are longer and the sun is stronger than January meaning that they are less likely now but I know that February 1986 was a very cold month with a subzero average what made February 1986 such a cold month and are the synoptics being shown now similar in some respects? Luke

Hi, But even if that was the case (ECM right) I am sure we should be seeing some severe frosts next week icy indeed I would imagine we will be seeing the lowest temperatures since early January do you think? Also like with the situation in early January isn't it the case that snow situations can appear at short notice with troughs etc. I would only imagine it to be completely dry with just high pressure in situ over the British Isles. Luke