lukemc

Why would you say that as I would think that considering we haven't had a decent August in a while we should a least be due a good one by now - don't you see a prospect for improvement soon. Remember other parts of the Northern Hemisphere are having hot weather even by thier more continental climate standards - think USA and Russia at the moment - surely the UK and Europe should be due thier turn of above average temps soon! I am going on holiday to Cornwall this year I am really looking forward to it as I have not been to Cornwall in 14 years but I think it is important that we get settled weather as I know that Cornwall can be extra special if you get nice weather! I think I will go for 17.5C seems more realistic than my 20C prediction for July! Luke

Good as it is always good to keep all options open and anything is statistically possible even if it might be improbable. I do think this summer has not been as bad as some seem to make it out to be on here and IMO we will get one more warm spell of temperatures above 28C before the end of August - I think the potential warm spell will last around 5-7 days or so and if we get that I will be happy. Luke

So really don't you see the prospect of anything decent for the rest of July and August - remember we have got 6 weeks left of meteorological summer left plus September which can often involve warm spells. So why would you think that a good August would be long odds at the moment? Remember statistically we are due a good August even if it is just by the law of averages. I do find it funny how increadibly pessimistic this thread is at times - I think the last few weeks were I live have not been too bad - it has been a mixture of good days (Thursday was fantastic) and not so good days but at least in my part of the world this summer has been an improvement over the last few in some respects - especially in terms of sunshine. As far as the synoptic pattern is concerned again as far as statistics are concerned we should be due a change shortly - If you have been following the likes of John Holmes posts you will notice that we have been stuck in the same wavelength pattern for a few weeks now - surely we should be due a change shortly considering how long the pattern has lasted. Luke

I live in the North West of England (Liverpool) and really taking this summer weather into context it has not been as bad as many seem to make out even here in the North West. Yes we have had some washout and rainy days but overall it seems that this summer so far frontal rain or completely overcast skies has been rare with most rainfall coming in the form of convective showers (and we also had an impressive thunderstorm on Thursday). As we have a martime climate in the UK, charaterised by moderately warm summers as opposed to hot and dry Spanish or Greek style ones with our rainfall being distributed equally thoughout the year, we are not supposed to have hot summers in this country. Looking at our climate in context (and looking at the statistics from the past it does seem that the weather this summer is pretty normal for my part of the world. In fact I do think sunshine wise we are above average actually were I live at least there has only been 1 day that I remember that was almost totally overcast. The only whine from me is that if I was not browsing the Netweather forums everyday (e.g. the MOD thread) I would probably think that this summer has not been as bad as some of the posts on here seem to make it out to be - there does seem to be a lot of negativity in the forums at times especially the MOD thread that can sort of condition my brain to think that this summer is poor of even dire by UK standards but actually I am a very rational person when I am focused and the rational side of my brain tries to take over! Luke

Maybe the UKMO seems to be the more accurate model at the moment - and remember we are talking about the GFS 06z run which seems to be among one of the less accurate GFS runs. What I do want to see is a July which is better than June I am not asking for much more than that but I do not want so see a southerly tracking jet make a return as I think we have had enough of that in recent weeks. Even though it might be correct I think it is a bit naive to automatically assume that the worst case scenario is the right one! Does anyone think that there is a chance that we could get a similar July to 1990 with a hot July following quite a poor June? Does anyone thing the Azores High could ridge far east enough to make it possible. As I said I would be happy with a better July than June but it would be great to get a July like 1990, 1991, 1955 or even 1999 even though the latter was followed by a mediocre August. Luke

What makes you think that the GFS is correct - other models are showing more settled scenarios at the moment and I might expect the GFS 06z to not have much ensemble support? Luke

Modern Summer? Hope you don't become the summer/heat lovers equivalent of Ian Brown LOL! - remember him saying that cold winters are a thing of the past and look what happened over the last few years - I hope we don't get people on here saying that aummer heatwaves are no longer possible due to a change in our climate pattens! Also the mood on here tonight seems a bid depressing at the moment - remember its only one GFS run and we are still on for a "mini heatwave" or "hot snap" but by some of the posts I have seen in here this evening you would be forgiven for thinking that the charts were like July 2007 before the floods or July 1988 etc. - but even if July does not live up to expectations I think it is unlikely it will be as bad as 2007 - cheer up guys! PS - the weather has been respectable here today no rain at all yet so even better than forecast. I do have a question about Sunday - I thought it was going to be a warm sunny day - where has this talk of cloud come from? Is it certain or very likely to be overcast or predomiantly cloudy now? How do you know if there is so much cloud around. Luke

Hi, Here is a facinating timelapse of a thunderstorm over the Great Plains (South Dakota) at night in June last year - it seems to go on all night from dusk to dawn with frequent C-G lightning in all directions - all pretty amazing. A question for you on here - does this look like a Mesoscale Convective System? And does anyone ever remember a similar duration storm occuring at night in the UK? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7b9OBhrE5o Luke

Hi, Do you think there is any hope for an improvement in the outlook anytime soon? I am normally quite an optimist but even I am starting to get a bit impatient as far as warm, sunny, settled weather is concerned considering that I live in the NW meaning that the last 4 summers in many respects could be described as being "quite poor" as far as not just rainfall but also cool maxima and cloud cover are concerned. In my area, however, this June has not been as bad as some make it out to be but it has been a bit on the cool side with the threat of showers on most days and of course we had the warm and dry spell at the beginning of the month. It would be nice for me to go places without having to ware a jacket or coat which I would expect to be able to do at this time of year. Even though this June has not been too bad in some ways, I would certainly not want our current pattern (with HP over greenland, deflecting the Jet Stream southwards and LP after LP over the British Isles with transitory ridges inbetween at times) to persist all summer - I think that would be very depressing - not just for me but for many on this forum so I do feel for them. As far as the grading of summers are concerned, you only have to look at Mr D's Manchester Summer Index to see how "mediocre" they were especially in the NW of England. As I have mentioned on the MOD, when did we last get a run of 5 consecutive summers that could be considered "poor" or at least "mediocre" - even in the 1980s that was not the case and we did not have to wait more than 4 years before the next decent summer (1985-88 and then 1989). I was thinking possibly the period 1977-83 but I have read on another forum that the last time we got a run of 5 summers with above average rainfall for the UK as a whole was in the decade 1910-1920 and if this summer turned out above average in rainfall it would be the first time we have had a run of 5 above average summers for rainfall since then. Considering that does anyone know if the last 4 summers clocked above average rainfall for the UK as a whole? Luke

Talking of years that had a poor June followed by a dramatic improvement in July and August was that the case in 1955 also? Also was there an element of improment in 1984 too as I think that the best weather then came in August. Do you think we could have a similar improvement this year as those years certainly show that a "poor" June in the eyes of some can certainly lead to an improvement in conditions later in the summer. Luke

Hi Gavin, Thanks for the info - I am starting to see the picture more now and it seems to be that the fact that our weather can get "stuck in a rut" in the summer rather than at other times of year may have been a factor that contributed to poor summers like 2007 etc. with a sluggish jetstream that becomes "stuck" over us. But I personally don't think the pattern that we are going into is going to be as stubborn as some on here think - remember we are only talking about computer models here they are not playing god and can only accurately predict the weather out to a few days or so there is plenty of time for things to change for the better. An example would be that if the Netweather forum had been around in 1990 (at this time of year) I am sure there would have been the doom mongers screaming out "summer is over" or "this summer is going to be very poor" or "another 1985/88 type summer" - as 1988 would have been the latest example of a summer that could have been considered poor back then. This was because the June in 1990 was quite wet/poor but then came along the improvement in July which cumulated in that record breaking heatwave in late July/early August which result in the hottest temperature recorded in the UK before 2003. So if we got a 1990 type summer which is still certainly a possibility I am sure GP's forecast would be given a good appraisal with just the timing considered to be a bit out as the Netweather forecast says that the best of the weather to be in June and July with a more average August. What I would say however is that if we do get a 2007/08 type summer we will need to look at why it happened in more detail and look to see at why our weather patterns in Summer have changed for the worse - because as I have said it is quite rare even in this country to get 5 wetter than average summers in a row (I think - can anyone tell me if 2009 and 2010 were above average rainfall for the UK as a whole?) - it didn't even happen in the 1980s with the run of wet summers then - 1985-1988 and then we had the good summer of 1989. Even despite that I do think we are unlikely to get another 2007 type summer at least as far as the extreme rainfall and flooding is concerned - I think that the extreme rainfall and flooding we saw in 2007 was quite rare and unprecedented - I think that the rainfall over England that we saw in 2007 is as rare and extreme as the extreme heat we saw in 2003 and therefore I would say we are just as likely to get another 2003 type heatwave as 2007 type flooding. Luke

Hi, I am wondering why a Greenland High is such bad news for good weather in the summer months in the UK? Can anyone explain? I can certainly see how it can make us cooler as we have a HP out to our east, and as HP moves clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere it is likely to bring Northerly winds over the UK on its eastern flank, but what I don't get is how it can potentially lead to an unsettled, wet pattern for the UK in the summer months - I would think that that would more likely be the result of a zonal pattern with lows steaming in of the Atlantic on a Southerly tracking jet so just looking for a bit of info on why everyone says Greenland high in summer=poor/unsettled weather. I would have thought that cool and dry weather would more likely be the outcome with the HP anchored out west. I have seen references to 2007 on here this morning, but wasn't that caused by low moving depressions moving in from the Atlantic on a southerly tracking jet rather than any Greenland HP? I am an optimistic person, and I do think this summer will turn out rather good in the end but what I do find depressing is coming onto the site sometimes to find no prospect of any warm or settled conditions in the near future or posts saying "unsettled" or "very unsettled" or "very poor model output this morning etc.". Yes, I know we live in the UK but at least in the North West of England I think we have had our fair share of "poor" summers recently so I do think that we are due at least a drier than average summer. What I don't like is having to wear a coat almost every day in the summer months, not because it is too cold but because of the threat of rain. Sometimes I have read comments about nature "balancing itself out" specifically in relation to the dry spring that we have just had and we are going to get a wet summer etc. or we are going to pay for this nice weather in the summer etc. - but at least in the North wouldn't that also be true of the last few summers being poor and nature balancing itself out by giving us a good one! One of the fustrating things is that some of the recent model output (but my no means all) seems to want to prove those who said in April that we are using up our quota of High Pressure and lovely weather now right! I am also wondering why the models want to deteriorate things so quickly is it something to do with the current teleconnections/upstream signals at present and will something need to change upstream to give us a proper warm/sunny outlook? I have booked some days off work near the end of June and I am really hoping they will be nice do you think things could have changed for the better by then? Luke

Hi, Regarding Stormmads comment were he says that the models seem to suggest that we get all the poor weather next week and all of the rest of Europe are going to be warm and sunny is this really the case? Even parts of Spain seem to be having poor weather at the moment for the time of year - another post that I saw said it might struggle to reach 20C in Ibiza today due to rain. And I think that comes after Spain having quite a wet spring too. The main place in Europe that seems to be having excessive warmth at the moment seems to be part of Eastern Europe - like Poland/Hungary etc. I would also think that parts of Northern France and Benelux could be rather unsettled next week too given thier proximity to the UK, especially near the coasts. I know that in 2007 it was not just unsettled in the UK but it was also unsettled across most of Western Europe - but the likes of Greece roasted in a heatwave. What was 2008 like in comparison - compared to "average" conditions would it be considered a "poor" summer in both the UK and parts of mainland Europe? Luke

Hi, As some were saying on here I know GP is amazing at long range forecasting but I really hope he does not get an egg in his face this time - even if it is for only one month (i.e. June). This is because good summer weather always makes me like a lot of people feel good and I sometimes feel depressed when we have long and protracted periods of "cool and unsettled" weather during the summer months. Also, as I live in the North West of England (Liverpool) the last 4 summers have been relatively poor - even though we have had warm and settled spells within those summers (and as others have said, 2007 was by far the worst of those 4), the warm and settled spells have either been almost non existent (i.e. 2007), short-lived (2008) or coming in June before it breaks down in early July to cool and unsettled conditions for almost the whole remainder of the summer (2009 and to a lesser extent 2010). Personally, I think Glacier Point's forecast will be rather accurate for this summer - I think the Netweather forecasts have been very good over the last couple of years e.g. 2009 when the MetO forecast a "BBQ summer" the Netweather forecast was closest to the mark predicting mixed summer conditions. But looking at some model output over the last few days and seeing some posts in the MOD threads both on this site and on other weather sites I could understand why at least a newcomer might be getting concerned for our June prospects! I think it would be nice to get an "official" 30 degrees C in this part of the world this summer too - I don't think Liverpool has recorded an official 30 degrees C (at least at the Liverpool Airport or Liverpool Crosby stations) since 2006 but can anyone confirm that? So I have had to travel to Spain to experience unbroken sunshine and 30C+ heat (for the last 4 years) and when I have been in Spain over the last 3 years it has been cool and unsettled for most of the time at home as we go to Spain in August. As for someone on hear implying that a 1976 type summer is highly unlikely - even if we don't get a 1976 style summer I think that we should at least get a summer with below average rainfall - I think the last 4 summers have had above average rainfall and it is actually very rare statistically for us to have 5 consecutive poor summers as far as rainfall is concerned at least - the last time we have a run of 5 summers with above average rainfall was in the 1910s I think - even in the 1960s and 1980s we did not get a run of 5 summers with above average rainfall as far as I am aware - in the 1980s we had the run of poor summers from 1985 to 1988 and then we had the very decent summer of 1989 so if this summer was similar to 1989 it would closely follow GP's forecast. Even if 1976 in itself was quite a one off in this country warm and settled summers themselves are not - in the last 30 years we have had quite a few summers which have been decent enough so I think we should be due one soon (e.g. 1983, 1984, 1989, 1990, 1995, 2003 and 2006 and I am sure thier are other examples in the last 30 years which would be considered an improvement on the last 4 especially in the NW of England). One of the most frustrating terms I hear on the forums (especially the MOD threads) for me living in the NW of England is "NW/SE split" - where the SE of England along with nearby mainland Europe has warm and settled conditions and we are stuck in cool and unsettled dross. It seems to have happened quite a bit in the last 2 summers - can anyone explain why just 150 miles or so can make such a difference and how the synoptics of say July 2010 (in which the SE England and nearby contiental Europe had a decent month, N to NW UK quite poor) from months were the whole of the UK has good weather like August 1995 etc? I sincerley hope we do not here much of that this coming summer and us in the NW does not miss out on any heat or sunshine! Luke

Could this qualify as the first "summer is over" post for 2011 - over 4 weeks from the start of meteorolgical summer with the full 3 months of summer ahead of us?!? LOL - only kidding!! On a more serious note what makes you think that this coming summer will be a poor one? Do you have any evidence - statistical, model related or other to suggest this? Even if we did get a poor summer I certainly cannot see the coming summer being as bad as 2007 as far as rainfall was concerned the summer of 2007 was exceptional and it could be a while until we get another summer as wet as that. If anything, we are overdue a drier and sunnier than average summer especially in the North West were I live. I could not stand another summer like 2007 though and I really hope that you are wrong in your predictions. Do you base your prediction on the theory that a warm April is more often than not followed by a poor summer? I don't think that can be statistically backed up - as Mr Data and the likes have quoted in the past there have been warm spells in April that have been followed by poor summers like 2007 and 1987 but there have also been warm spells in April that have been followed by decent or very good summers like 1984, 2003 and of course the famous example of 1976 - so I still don't buy that theory. Yes this summer may turn out either way but I think it is a bit premature to effectively write off the coming summer more than a month before June 1st - yes the NAO may be turning negative but there is plenty of time for things to change in your favour if it is a good summer you are after. If you feel that there are compelling signals for a washout summer please feel free to explain why you think that may be the case. Luke

Hi, I know that this theory might not be true and I personally believe it is not but I did read in a post on this forum from summer 2007 that someone back then suggested a theory that the warm sea surface temperatures caused by the warm spring in NW Europe could have been a contributory factor to the poor/washout summer that year in that the warm SSTs could have either affected the position of the jetstream or have helped provided "fuel" in terms of moisture for the slow moving low pressures making thier way across the British Isles leaving the coupious amounts of rainfall. Does anyone think that thier could be some basis in this theory. Also for Summer 2006 I do remember a similar theory for why August was nowhere near as good as July - again it was the heatwave increasing the SST's and fueling the moisture available to the jetstream or encouraging easier formation of low pressure systems in the Atlantic - it was like the intense heat in July had "burnt itself out" by August - does anyone have any evidence to back up that theory. Luke

Just of a matter of interest Damien what are your thoughts on this coming summer do you think we could be in for a good summer this year in the first half at least? It would be nice to get a sunnier summer this year especially considering recent summers in our part of the world (NW England) have been rather dull especaily in the latter half so I really want to see good sunshine levels distributed thoughout the summer this year. Luke

Hi, Talking of the warm (possibly record warm spell in April) does anyone think that thier could be a link between a very warm April and poor or washout summers? Personally I think thier is no link and a warm April is no more likley to be followed by a cool and wet summer than a warm one but I do think the experience of 2007 with a record warm April followed by a poor summer with exceptional rainfall has got some people concerned - people are starting to ask me "is this our summer and is this all that we will get?" but I cannot see any scientific explination to why a warm April will be followed by a poor summer - indeed if we can get a record hot month in April we could also get a record hot month in July too which could actually make it more likley that we will get a hot summer especially if we get a run of above average months again - I think we have been above average since February (was March above average?). It will be interesting to hear peoples views on the possible iink but as I have mentioned I do not subscribe to it myself - I think that the summer of 2007 makes people seem to assume that a hot April =poor summer just in the same way that winter 2010-11 could be used to support a theory that if you get a winter cold spell early on in the winter (i.e. before Christmas) the rest of the winter will be mild even though the winter we have had was pretty exceptional. Luke

Do you really think there is a link between fine, warm, settled spells in April and poor summers? Yes I know about the example in 2007 with the warmest April on record which was followed by a washout summer but sometimes isn't it the case that warm springs can be followed by hot or decent summers like the 2003, 1995 and 1984 (I think the April of 1984 was one of the driest Aprils of the century in some parts of the country) - I am sure there are more examples to prove that dry/warm periods in the spring are not necessarily followed by poor washout summers - I do think in recent years there is a bit of a myth disseminated on these forums that good dry fine weather in April and May is likely to be followed by a poor summer IMO a warm and dry spring is no more likely to be followed by are poor summer than a decent or even hot one - also remember the April of 1976 was drier and sunnier than average too - I think this myth comes from peoples experience of the summer of 2007 which was an example of a poor summer following a warm and dry April. Luke

Hi, Did we not have a run of 4 poor or mediocre summers in the 80s between 1985 and 1988? By poor I mean by each of those summers had at least one month that could be considered to be a washout with considerably above average rainfall (like August 1986 or July 1988). And then the glorious summer of 1989 came along. We have now had a similar run of 4 summers with at least one month with well above average rainfall at least in the north, so like 1989 ended a run of quite wet summers do you think this summer could be drier overall than the last four and could we have a chance of reaching 34C for the first time since 2006? Luke

Hi, If this winter finishes around 6.5 to 6.7 CET as projected would this February be the mildest since 2002? Would it be our mildest February for 8 years? Luke

Hi, Just curious, do you think the February is likely to end up as a top 5 or at least top 10 mildest on record? Luke

Hello, Just asking do you think I will see any more lying snow this February or this winter season. Yes I am normally very optimistic when it comes to these things especially after the amazing December that we had but like many of you on this forum will understand even I am starting to loose my patience having not had a single day of lying (or even falling snow) since the first week of January and we have had to endure synoptics that are non conductive for snowfall since. Yes I know that synoptics that are non conductive for cold and snow would be the norm in many winters in the so called "christmas pudding" as some prefer to call it but even I can't seem to grasp how the synoptics favourable for cold and snow just seemed to vanish as we entered January. Yes, you could say that the strong La Nina profile was responsible but that does not seem to be stopping cold/wintery outbreaks in other parts of the Northern Hemisphere - just saw a report on CNN this morning about an unusually snowy spell of weather in the Korean peninsula. As for the rest of this week, even though we have had to endure a lot of ups and downs in the model output over the last week or so, last nights models were firming up on a possible battleground scenario which could potentially be on the scale of March 2006 at least which brought quite a bit of snow were I live - I had seen possible comparisons with February 1996 and March 2006 mentioned but what sometimes fustrates me is how the upper temps seem to get downgraded closer to the time - I have just seen a post from one of the more experienced posters in the model thread and he does not rekon that the continental air will get far west enough for it to bring widespread snow and he seems to reckon that the Atlantic air has more chance of winning this time at least based on current output. So do you think we are still in with a chance of a good covering of snow before winter is out - I don't mean it staying on the ground for over a week like in December but is a good fall of snow with it remaining on the ground for a day or two really to much to ask for now? I cannot see why the mild has to win all the time. I would actually be happy now with a similar event to early January with a fall of snow in the morning melting away by the afternoon considering the way this winter has gone in terms of snowfall since then really is even that too much to ask for or would current model output still leave us with a shot at something in the next week? Yes I am normally very optimistic but it will not be long until I start using emoticons like this :wallbash:in my posts and I admit I have never used that particular one before unless we get something exciting soon LOL! I would also be nice to see NW regional forum busy again too for a change! Luke

Hi, Talking of this winter being an exceptional December (and late November) for snow and cold and then becoming poor or unexceptional for cold and snow for much of the rest of the winter, what do you think has caused the rest of the winter to go "pear shaped" as some put it? Top of my mind would be the strong La Nina - but even that does not explain all e.g. it does not seem to apply in some other parts of the Northern Hemisphere - e.g. I just saw a report on CNN today about an unusually snowy spell of weather in the Korean peninsula (including Seoul) so the strong La Nina does not seem to be stopping snow and cold in some other parts of the world this month! Anyway if we consider the strong La Nina to be at least partially to blame for the disappearence of the synoptics conductive for cold and snow, does anyone think that if it wasn't for the strong La Nina (e.g. if we had an ENSO close to neutral) we could have been looking at a true classic winter on the scale of 1947-48, 1962-63 or at least 1978-79? Luke