lukemc

Yes, look at Holland and they are normally only slightly colder than hear in the winter (Amsterdam average about 5C at this time of year, Liverpool about 7C) - Schipol airport almost made it to -20C the other night - and remember when we had the mild weather at Xmas the Low Countries and northern France were as mild as us with double figure temps - we get mild, they get mild but when they get severe cold, we have to miss out on the best LOL! Luke

Hi, I have read over on TWO that the overly strong Azores High is the reason why the British Isles has not made the most of this European cold spell (in a nutshell blaming it for keeping the very severe cold away from the UK) - and some parts (Scotland and Ireland) have not been in the game at all as far as this cold spell is concerned? Is it the Azores High which is sending the coldest of the air south of the the UK rather than France - if pressure was lower over the Azores considering the same setup, would the UK being experincing cold on a par with 1987? How close did we come to January 1987 type cold considering the synoptics - and does anyone know weather this spell is rivialling 1987 in France and the Low Countries going by thier records - how does it compare over their? Luke

But remember the Met Office medium range forecasts are updated every day and are liable to change at short notice, so I would imagine confidence is low for "milder weather" at the moment especially considering it is for the second half of the month and it is difficult to predict from that far out. Luke

One thing that interests me it why when thier is severe cold extremely close to the UK - look at some of the temperatures over in Holland and Northern France - why couldn't we tap into it this time? Yes, I know that they are on the landmass of contiental Europe so are likley to be colder in the winter but what has been experienced over thier has been severe cold - well below average whereas at the moment we have not been as cold relative to average - the cold in France/Benelux/Germany could be colder that what was experienced over thier in 2009/10 and December 2010 - also Scotland and Ireland have only been around average for the time of year - does anyone know why this is?

.But they are often not that accurate and are subject to change - and also - why oh why does the 18z run last night want to pick up on a milder trend - BT said ignore it, it is just the "pub run" - but the Met Office seem to think that it may possibly be right - personally I don't think it is because it was against the backround signals like the stratospheric warming etc. Luke

I do not think we are in an El Nino phase at the moment - I think it is a weak La Nina? Wasn't the winter of 1946-47 or 1962-63 a weak La Nina too? What seems strange to me about this cold spell is that fact that very severe cold seems to be close to the UK (look at Benelux - I wouldn't be surprised if they are having thier coldest start to February since 1947 or at least 1963 or 1986 - and as they are normally only slightly colder than the UK at this time of year it is severe cold for them - well below average temperatures. And as mentioned on here, France too - they also must be having thier coldest spell of February weather since at least 1986. But looking at Ireland and Scotland - Scotland only seem to be around the average for the time of year (and Scotland is probably the snowiest place in the British Isles on average - and in December 2010 Scotland was colder than most of Europe except Scandinavia!) and Ireland may even be milder than average in some places. But I thought that the winter of 1946-47 was caused by a similar setup - a massive Siberian block (not a Greenland block like 1962-63)? And in 1946-47 we all know that Ireland, Scotland and Northern England were affected by the severe cold and snow so what seems to be keeping the western half of the British Isles on the milder side this time - is it the Azores High? - I would not expect it to be the Polar Vortex as it is supposed to have weakened dramatically. Anyway, this month goes to show again that severe cold is still possible in this part of the world - and if this blocking persists does anyone think that an outcome simliar to February 1947 could be a possibility - these blocks seem to set in for a long time and surely if the Siberian block persisted for a long period of time surely it will be only just a matter of time until the whole of the British Isles is affected by the severe cold - even without Greenland blocking? Does anyone have any previous examples of a cold spell that was severe in France/Benelux but average in Scotland/Ireland from previous years? Luke

I found it pretty interesting you don't normally get very much freezing rain in England especially in the North West - it is quite common in Canada/USA though - the icicles were strange don't think I have seen them without snow before. I still do think that this month is going to be a cold one when you get a massive block coming out of Russia like the last week or so they can set in for a long time - wasn't it a big Siberian block that caused the big freeze in 1947 - and that lasted until March - and I have just read that March 1947 was even snowier than February 1947. If it did dig in for the rest of the month, I think it will be only a matter of time before us in the NW get the severe cold what do you think? It will be interesting to compare the 1947 synoptics to now though. Luke

I could see the moon outside about 30 minutes ago - yes it was pretty clear from what I saw. I think Siberia would be a bit too cold for you though! Another cold few weeks coming up, that is, if the GFS 18z op run is not right according to some - but I would not even say the FI on that run is mild! To get the cold and snow, maybe they need to move Liverpool and Runcorn 300 miles further east LOL! Luke

Yes that was good it was about -11 were I live all frozen up - what is your temp now btw it is clear now will we be below freezing soon? I do want a cold February possibly record breaking but on the model thread they are saying that the latest GFS run has gone a bit pear shaped - come on - we need our snow not just for me but for you - as I know you are more mad on snow than me! Maybe a quick flight on Easyjet over to Amsterdam or Nice would be a good thing if you want snow and bitterly cold temps! Also BT, do you want to chat with me in the chat room?

Good to see it getting colder. Still need my snow fix though especially when quite a few other places have either had snow or getting snow - I want our time to come for a good covering here in Liverpool. Yes it was disappointing getting no snow at all but the freezing rain was interesting - on the plus side I would imagine that is less common than snow here. Luke

Sounds more promising to me - but sometimes an Easterly can deliver for this part of the world but not very often so that could be a possibility too - and we would not have to worry about marginality with the air being so cold from that direction - it could give us at least a few cm to keep around so we can get some low night time minima - do you forsee low minima this coming week like -6 or -7C that would be good. I do want my snow fix though - I am not being greedy - if this continues we could see most of Europe get snow - except - you guessed it - Ireland and the western part of NW England were we our LOL! Luke

OK BT, as you have said - I understand how you are feeling I know that even Rome and Nice in the Med have had snow - Nice of the south coast of france too - that must be near a 1 in 50 or even 1 in 100 year event surely snow on the beach in the south of France is exceedingly rare - but if we do get a sub zero CET February I am shaw we will get our fair share of snow and severe frosts (-10C temperatures) - so I am sure it will come. Some of the synoptics across Europe at the moment look similar to 1947 do you think too? Luke

Hi BT, Just posted as I was feeling a bit despondent today after no snow came at all - but on a positive note do you think that the upcoming spell has the potenial to exceed December 2010 - if you look at some places (e.g. Benelux countries) they are even colder now than in 2010 and the last time they had temps like they have had over the last few days must have been 1947 and 1963 surely? I know they are normally a bit colder than us in this sort of synoptical setup - but the cold they are getting in Germany/Benelux is rare to very rare even by the standards of thier more contiental climate - so I think that the worst of the cold could still be to come? Luke

Hello again, Are we expected to get another shot at getting snow this week I would really like to see proper snow next time not this freezing rain and ice pellets what would be the best chance of that occuring? Luke

Then we will get a nice frost then but I really do want our turn for snow to come - I was expecting it today so I am a bit disappointed we had Freezing Rain and ice pellets all day when it should have been cold enough for the white stuff!

Just thinking, do you think it is possible that this cold spell could exceed or at least rival December 2010 for its severity? As mentioned above Holland got temperatures below -20C last night - even though they are closer to the contiental landmass and more sheltered from the Atlantic I don't remember them being as cold as that during winter 2009-10 or December 2010. Did 1947 start with a similar setup with cold air moving across Europe eventually to hit the UK - we know that we get more Easterlys it is certainly not going to be mild! Luke

Hello you guys again, Been following activity of this thread all day today so I thought I will have a post. A bit disappointed we had no snow in Liverpool at all today considering how cold it has been, but I did get that freezing rain which still made it interesting. Everywhere outside my house including walls and car windows are glazed in ice - it seemed like one of those North American style ice storms - you don't get that to often in Liverpool - We even have icicles aswell. A question for you - why did we get zero snow today considering the low temperatures and dew points below freezing for most of the day - even with the heavier PPN? Considering how cold this spell is going, I would really like a good chance of snow in my part of the world - yes snow can be pretty rare in Liverpool considering our close proximity to the warm Irish Sea but in 2010 and 2011 we did well - really well for this part of the world I would say. Anyway does anyone think that this cold spell could potentially exceed December 2010 for severity - looking at some of the temperatures over the UK and nearby Mainland Europe I would say its certainly possible - -11C or -12C in the SE of England and just over the North Sea in Holland around -20C yes I know they are closer to the continental landmass but I don't remember Amsterdam being as cold as that in December 2010 - they must be having thier coldest start to February since at leas 1963 if not 1947! So if the Easterly wind continues it certainly isn't going to be warm and I want to see some snow to make the cold spell worthwhile! Luke

Hello again, I was reading in the Stratosphere thread that Chroniomaniac was concerned about something called the E-P flux moving away from the pole rather than polewards, he was saying that even if we get a stratospheric warming (a major one) if the E-P flux is moving away from the pole it would make it less likely to get rid of the polar vortex - could this be what today's modelling has been picking up on (e.g. the GFS 18z keeping the PV in situ in response to that signal)? However, I did find it puzzling that in the Stratosphere thread yesterday everyone was taking about an epic warming but today everything seems more cautious with these concerns emerging - if the Stratospheric output is so volatile how come we rely on it so much surely if it changes so much means that we can question its accuracy especially this far out? Luke

Wow looks good to me - at least if you like cold and snow - good things come to those who wait I am sure your time will come! Luke

Looking at things from a quantum mechanical point of view nothing is certain - yes cold is not certain but mild is certainly not certain too! It will be nice to see a bit more balance in your posts take it easy - I do find you seem to have a mild bias when predicting outcomes but it could be reverse psychology if you like cold weather that is. On that matter what is your preference - do you like cold weather, or are you a "mildy" like Ian Brown or Gavin D? Who knows what the next few weeks will bring! Good to see encouraging signs from the ECM for the cold fans though - and if the ECM is good lets hope that we get a good pub run tonight from the GFS to up the spirit on this forum a bit - at least it will help with the post Xmas anti climax LOL!

But remember it is known for the ensembles to flip suddenly - I remember during I think it was the February 2009 cold spell the models and ensembles were predicting the cold spell to continue but when the models started to change to a milder outlook the ensembles flipped suddenly - which could be the case IMO if we get our Stat warming event - as long as it results in blocking in the right places for us. One consolation is the fact that it is not just us in the UK that is mild ATM - as you said Oslo are way above average and even Eastern Europe is mild at the moment with very little lowland snow cover. Looking across the Atlantic to the east coast of the USA, it doesn't get much better thier either - NYC and Washington have been very mild recently too - remember this time last year NYC was about to get over a foot of snow! Talking of that is the USA eastern seaboard mild due to the same pattern that is keeping us mild as a matter of interest - i.e. the strong polar vortex and very positive NAO? Luke

Maybe this should be more appropriately placed in the "Moaning about winter" thread - but it has seemed this year that we have had a negative NAO thoughout almost all the summer - hence promoting poor, unsettled summer weather - but as soon as it hits Autumn and then into Winter it goes positive and seems to be stuck thier - with natural variablity I would probably expect the NAO to vary over shorter periods of time giving us more of a mixed season - was puzzles me is why does it always stay stuck in a certain state for months on end rather than just a few weeks? It is almost like the teleconnections have conspired against us getting "seasonable" weather in the right seasons this year - but not all was lost as we know that a positive NAO does not guarantee mild weather just like a negative one does not guarantee a cold weather pattern - as earlier this month prove with the cold zonality. Anyway HD, cheer up as I am sure things are not as bad as you make them out to be - we have got the unpredictable situation of what is happening in the stratosphere and remember the GFS was one of the milder members of the ensemble suite especially in the south - and the ECM seems to be modelling a PV split. I would expect the GFS to come on board over the next few runs - although that is just my own personal opinion. Luke

But last year when we had the very cold December you could also say at the time it would be a brave person to bet against a winter in the "very cold category" - e.g. a winter riveling 1962/63 or 1946/47 but look what happened - we ended up with a mild second half of the winter rather than a cold one cumulating in one of the mildest Februaries for a while - I would say that just like last winter turned mild in the second half you cannot discount the possibility of this winter turning colder in the second half - what you have got to realise is that 1988/89 is to mild winters like 1962/63 is to cold - it is extreme and is a rare occurance in or climate - we are talking extremes here - the former mild, the latter cold. Just my logic coming into play here as I am a logical person. Luke

Hello again, I haven't posted on this forum for a while but I am just making the point Ian that the "christmas pudding" does not exist - that was proven wrong by the last two winters - I remember you saying a few years ago that you said that "another winter like 1995-96 would not be possible anymore" - and how proven wrong were you on that - as we had the coldest winter since 1978-79 (1962-63 in Scotland) in 2009-10 and the coldest December for over 100 years last December - so if they can happen in a so called "christmas pudding" - surely they can happen again. Climate varies naturally - and we have been putting CO2 into the atmosphere for over 100 years so if that was true the effects would have been noticeable a long long time ago. I know many on hear find Ian Brown's posts annoying but there was a poster on another forum (TWO) who believes that the last two winters were just a fluke and winters are going to get milder and milder - and he also quoted that "if there is another 1962-63 in his lifetime, he will run naked down Oxford Street" - IMO and this is my personal opinion only, that is a whole load of nonsense - guys - and I am directing this at the cold lovers on here especially - many of you "coldies" on here find Ian Brown's post annoying but compared to that poster is is pretty benign - not saying that I agree with Ian's posts in any way but IMO we will have a good shot at cold and snow in the new year and I think the models will firm up on it soon. Merry Xmas to you everyone aswell! Luke

But 41C for NYC at this time of year is still quite a way above thier average - the average high in July in NYC is 28C or 29C so that is at least 12C above average. That would still be the equivalent of me in Liverpool (whose average July max is approx 20C) getting to 32C so even taking into account climatic differences, it is still quite a way above average in NYC or the Eastern Seaboard. NYC could be getting close to an all time high so it is the equivalent of Liverpool experiencing July 2006 temps or London August 2003 temps so I am sure if it can happen thier (i.e. local records being challenged) there is no reason why it can't happen here. BTW, I thought the last example of a poor June and July being followed by a good August was 1997, not 1871. Luke