lukemc

Hello again, Do you think we will see lying snow again this winter - I am starting to get a bit desperate now as we have not had a day of lying snow in Liverpool since the beginning of January and that is after a cracking December. Yes I know December was fantastic but I still can grasp how the synoptics that favour snow suddenly disappear after the beginning of January but at the other side of the coin I know that lying snow is still possible were I live until April - April 2008 produced lying snow and that was after a mild, snowless winter and also we had March 2006 as well which was a good event with 20cm or snow in Liverpool - I think this video shows the March 2006 event in Liverpool: So do you think we will see some snow with cold in the next few weeks especially considering La Nina often favours a cold/blocked early spring - 2008 being a good example. Luke

So would you really think that the charts we are seeing at the moment are the worst charts we have seen from a cold and snow perspective since probably January 2008? I would disagree as we did have a mild period in the second half of February 2009 after the cold spell when everyone was unhappy about the predictied Stratopheric Warming not coming to fruition. The thing that puzzles me is that we are in a cold spell at the moment but people are going on about "dire" or "dismal" charts for cold! In fact the cold spell that we have at the moment would be considered very good in a pre 2008 "even larger teapot" - if it was in a winter like 2006/07 it probably would be the coldest spell of the entire winter! I think some people are having an anti climax from an amazing December and that is why the charts looks so bad - maybe they are not as bad from a cold lovers pov than a lot of people make them out to be. Anyway I think that late February - early March could end up being cold or very cold do you think we could even end up with a record cold first half to March it is possible but a March similar to 2006 would be nice so don't give up hope for cold and snow just yet. Luke

Do you think this upcoming zonal westerly spell could be a cold zonal variety in the style of January 1984 or March 1995? It would be nice to get a cold westerly zonal type rather than a mild zonal type and I think with the Eastern Seaboard of North America being cold in the last few weeks that must surely increase the chance of the zonality being of the cold variety. So does anyone think we could be in for some wintery surprises in the next week or so with the possibility of some snow similar to what we had in early January (i.e. settling snow but not on the ground for long). I would happily take that scenario considering that January since then has been devoid of snow. But does anyone think that after the zonal spell is over we could see quite a cold end to Winter - a cold late February/early March - a March similar to 2006 would be good - we must have had about 20cm of snow then! Regarding March 1995 was there any lying snow in Liverpool from that event? Luke

Hi, Have not posted on here for a while but just to say that despite the fact that I am content living in our "maritime" climate here in the UK as when cold and snow does come it is something to look forward to as it does not happen very often (as opposed to say if I lived in Canada or Mid West USA were I might get fed up with snow after a while as it would be just a normal part of everyday weather) what I do not understand is how suddenly synoptics which are favourable for snow can disappear without trace. Yes I have noticed the moaning and groaning in the model thread over the last 2 weeks or so and every day over the last 2 weeks seems to have posts like "poor output again this morning" or "clutching a straws" or posts from the likes of Ian Brown taking advantage of the poor output to wind the cold and snow lovers up. Yes I do admire the good posts from the likes of Nick Sussex, TEITS, GP who try to keep at least some sanity in the thread during times like this. Yes I know that December was an amazing month that was a 1 in 100 year event but what you have got to understand is that even mild winter months like the Februarys of 1999 and 2007 can contain synpotics favourable for snow but I still cannot figure out how synoptics favourable for snow can just vanish (Not cold though as we are in a cold period at the moment but I mean cold conductive to snow) like they seemed to do at the beginning of January. Yes you could say that a La Nina winter would favour a cold early winter and milder end but La Nina should apply to the whole of the Northern Hemisphere - so it does seem to be the case for Western Europe but not for parts of North America (remember New York is close to recording its snowfall record this January - and in a strong La Nina Winter too)- so can anyone explain how our synoptics become so poor for snow lovers (not necessarily cold lovers though as we are in a cold HP dominated period at the moment) especially as this winter is not following a normal Nina profile for the N Hemisphere as a whole - remember December was a lot colder than your typical strong La Nina December. Despite this do you think we could see one more good snowy period before winter is out personally I think the second half of February and/or the first half of March will be wintry and cold to very cold as a few medium range forecasts are already hinting so I think a late February/March similar to 2006 could be possible does anyone else agree. It also fits in well with La Nina cold spells in early spring but as I have mentioned above this winter is not following a normal Nina profile so you never know. Luke

Not bad Backtrack - I thought it was pretty cold this morning it was certainly a hard frost. The only think I seem to be cocerned about is how the synoptics which are conductive to cold and snow (as described in the model thread) just seem to suddenly disappear like they did at the beginning of this month - yes maybe we have had cold since then but not synoptics that favour widespread snowfall especially for our area. Yes I like our "maritime" climate here in the UK due to the fact that snowfall is possible in the winter but it does not pesist all the time for weeks on end and thats why I thought December was amazing as far as our climate is concerned - in our climate snow and cold can be seen as something special that we can look forward too - unlike the situation in Canada or midwesten USA were you might just get used to the cold and snow and think it as a normal thing so when it does happen it does not seem as exciting (expect when you get a major blizzard). But one of the things that does frustrate me about the climate in this country is how easily the synoptics that a favourable for cold and snow can just disappear without trace - like they seem to have done at the beginning of January (maybe not for cold but certainly as far as the white stuff is concerned) - even after an amazing spell like December - yes December was an exceptional month but even in quite mild winters we can get synoptics which are favourable for snow like the Februarys of 1999 and 2007. I also hear that La Nina normally favours a colder first half and a milder second half of winter and that does seem to be the case at the moment on this side of the Atlantic but it certainly does not seem to be the case on the other side of the Atlantic with New York likley to record one of it snowiest months on record this January so does anyone think there is still hope for cold and snow lovers in our part of the world. I do certainly have a feeling that the end of February - first half of March could be on the wintery and cold or very cold side so maybe a March like 2006 or 1995 coming up does anyone agree? Anyway BT what is your temp at the moment - do you think cloud could ruin our chances of a good frost tonight? Luke

Interesting to here your mention of La Nina and the fact that if often results in the coldest conditions in December and then getting less cold later on in the winter. This has got me thinking about the conditions across North America at the moment as opposed to Western Europe - does the normal rule the La Nina = colder than average early winter - milder than average late winter apply to North America also as North America (the eastern half at least) is going through a severe spell at the moment with some very cold temperatures forecast e.g. -20C and below in Chicago etc. so very cold even by thier standards. I have also seen some posts saying that the deep cold over NA is not helping in us getting a sustained cold pattern over this side of the Atlantic but I thought that is more favourable for cold here further down the line with winter storms coming of the US eastern seaboard resulting in Warm Air Avection over Greenland - can you explain how the severe cold over NA at the moment could be unfavourable for cold (or at least upper cold conductive to snow) over UK/Western Europe. Luke

Hi, I have noticed on the model thread that some people think that the weather that we are having at the moment - HP dominated in winter is boring or a "borefest" or "snoozefest" - I for one disagree as HP in winter can bring freezing fog like it did last night and the night before and I seem to like freezing fog almost as much as snow in the winter - it can keep tempeatures very cold especially during the daytime and icedays are possible where freezing fog persists. Not to mention the rime frost and hoar frost that can be spectacular under freezing fog conditions. And it can be almost as distruptive as snow especially to air travel - noticed that Liverpool Airport had a few flights diverted elsewhere last night with a Runway Visual Range (RVR) visability of 100m for a lot of last night. The main thing that fustrates me about the model thread is that if severe cold and snow is not on the models, some posters, probably only a minority but enough to make my blood boil, seem to think that it is going to be either mild, boring or poor for the forseeable future. Anyway onto the possibilty of snow in the next few weeks, does anyone think we could see some snow in the next few weeks? Yes I here from a lot of posters that the models show low pressure both to the north and south of us keeping the High Pressure over us but I do remember looking at the charts for late January 1996 which seemed to show HP over us - was that similar to what we have now? but then a few weeks later we had the battleground situation between the very cold air to the east and the mild Atlantic air that brought that big snowstorm on the 5th and 6th February 1996 - does anyone think we could see a similar evolution into this February - a "battleground" scenario that could deliver big time for our region? I would like to get a similar snowstorm this February because I think it is nice to have snowfall spread thoughout the winter and not concentrated in a single month and it would be nice for me to get lying snow in all 3 winter months - December, January and February - even though January this month for me so far has only had 1 day of lying snow. What I don't seem to understand however is how the synoptics that are conductive to snow and cold in December can suddenly just disappear as we move later in the winter - yes I knew it happened in winter such as 1981-82 and 1996-97 but we just has the coldest December for over 100 years so I can't see how synoptics conductive to snow can just vanish without trace - I do think we will see some more snowfall from February into March - can anyone explain? But even in winters in the so called "christmas pudding" before 2008 February, March and April have often delivered not just cold wise - but snow wise too - examples that I think of are the Februaries of 1999 and 2007 which were mild overall but had good snow events contained within them, March 2006 and April 2008. So I certainly do think there is good potential for snowfall over the next few weeks - infact I might stick my head out and say that I would be extremely surprised if nowhere in the lowland British Isles has significant snowfall within the next 6-8 weeks. Luke

Hi, I have noticed on the model thread that some people think that the weather that we are having at the moment - HP dominated in winter is boring or a "borefest" or "snoozefest" - I for one disagree as HP in winter can bring freezing fog like it did last night and the night before and I seem to like freezing fog almost as much as snow in the winter - it can keep tempeatures very cold especially during the daytime and icedays are possible where freezing fog persists. Not to mention the rime frost and hoar frost that can be spectacular under freezing fog conditions. And it can be almost as distruptive as snow especially to air travel - noticed that Liverpool Airport had a few flights diverted elsewhere last night with a Runway Visual Range (RVR) visability of 100m for a lot of last night. The main thing that fustrates me about the model thread is that if severe cold and snow is not on the models, some posters, probably only a minority but enough to make my blood boil, seem to think that it is going to be either mild, boring or poor for the forseeable future. Anyway onto the possibilty of snow in the next few weeks, does anyone think we could see some snow in the next few weeks? Yes I here from a lot of posters that the models show low pressure both to the north and south of us keeping the High Pressure over us but I do remember looking at the charts for late January 1996 which seemed to show HP over us - was that similar to what we have now? but then a few weeks later we had the battleground situation between the very cold air to the east and the mild Atlantic air that brought that big snowstorm on the 5th and 6th February 1996 - does anyone think we could see a similar evolution into this February - a "battleground" scenario that could deliver big time for our region? I would like to get a similar snowstorm this February because I think it is nice to have snowfall spread thoughout the winter and not concentrated in a single month and it would be nice for me to get lying snow in all 3 winter months - December, January and February - even though January this month for me so far has only had 1 day of lying snow. What I don't seem to understand however is how the synoptics that are conductive to snow and cold in December can suddenly just disappear as we move later in the winter - yes I knew it happened in winter such as 1981-82 and 1996-97 but we just has the coldest December for over 100 years so I can't see how synoptics conductive to snow can just vanish without trace - I do think we will see some more snowfall from February into March - can anyone explain? Luke

Hi, i have a feeling that the upcoming summer could end up being a rather good one - i.e. warmer and dryer than average. Just a hunch of course, but the reason for this is that we have had 4 quite mediocre summers in succession and looking at the evidence from the past it seems that it is quite rare to get more than 4 poor summers in a row (I think that happened in the 1960s). In the 1980s we had 4 wet and/or cool summers in succesion and that run was ended by the belter of a summer of 1989. 1989 was again followed by another quite hot summer in 1990. Was 1989 also La Nina or La Nina trending the neutral? So does anyone think that we could possibly get a summer similar to 1989 especially if the La Nina signal starts to weaken as we approach the summer months? I would be delighted by such a summer as I live in the North West of England where the last 4 summers have been somewhat poorer than some other parts of the country, especially the South East. For us however the last 2 summers (2009 and 2010) had been decent until early July and then it went downhill from then. So it would be nice to get a consistantly warm and dry summer for most of the country for a change, especially in more northern parts. Luke

Talking of this winter as a whole do you see the potential for this winter overall to be the coldest since 1962/63? Even if January was slightly below average but February was very cold (lets say 1C CET or lower) that should mean that we get the coldest winter since 1962/63? So I do think there is a good chance (probably more than 40%) that we record the coldest since 1963 beating last winter and 1978/79. And that would mean that we get 2 significantly cold winters back to back - I don't think that is something that happens very frequently. When was the last time that happened - I think posted that it was in the 1940s or even earlier (Mr Data?) I think there is an outside chance we could even equal or beat 1962/63 if we had a very cold second half of Janaury like some are predicting and then a cold February but I am just asking about the potential for coldest winter (CET wise) since 1962/63 which I think will be fantastic to see in my lifetime. And also to have 2 of the coldest winters in my lifetime back to back. Luke Luke

Hi, With the interest that many of the weather enthusiasts have on here have in following the models and other associated output (ensembles, Met Office Updates, etc.), especially during a winter like last or this current one, I am just wondering what the maximum amount of resources avaliable to an amateur weather enthusiast would be before the Internet era, for example if we were living though winters like 1962/63, 1978/79 and 1981/82 what sort of information could we get to give some indication that a cold blast is on its way back then with the technology around those times. Obviously for 1962/63 I would imagine television and radio forecasts would give the first indication that something severe is on its way but back then I don't think the resources available to professional forecasters where anywhere near as much what is around today - take for example this video - it is from the US and it mentions the major blizzard that hits the New York area in 1966. It also compares how that event was forcast comparing it with how similar events could be forecast today: Note the weatherman at 2m40s explaining that today he could give a good idea that snow was on its way 3-4 days out, but back in 1966 it was a day maximum. He also explains that they had no models at all back then and the main information going into forecasts came from observers on the ground, people reporting and I presume information gathered from weather balloons etc. I would also think that the same would also apply to 1962-63 in the UK as it was around the same time period and I would not have imagined the UK Met Office to have any more resources at thier disposal than thier US equivalents (NWS/NOAA) so would it be the case that in 1963 we would only have known it was coming at most 2 days out and snow events could only be forecast with even the slightest degree of accuracy a day out or so? Moving on to my next example, 1981/82, I would have thought that some models would have been available at least to professional forecasters back then as computer technology was better by the early 1980s (but still in its infancy by todays standards). Did NOAA/NWS have the GFS model back then? And did the UK Met Office have thier own model to? In the absence of the Internet was thier any way for the general public to gain access to model output or would you have to have contacts within the Met Office etc? Another thing that I read that could have been useful if your where a weather enthusiast back then was access to TV/radio forecasts from Contiential Europe (especially Germany or Holland/Benelux) as because the are to the east of us they would normally get the cold weather before we do so would that give a good indication that it was about to turn cold. Does anyone have any experience of being an amateur weather enthsiast back then. And finally to the 90s lets say 1995/96 did Netweather exist on the Net back then and was any model output available online? Luke

Hi, I think I will go for a January with similar severity to 1985, i.e. a severe month but just missing out on a subzero CET would be my guess. I will go for 0.4C. Luke Hi, I think I will go for a January with similar severity to 1985, i.e. a severe month but just missing out on a subzero CET would be my guess. I will go for 0.4C. Luke

Here is what I just posted on the North West regional forum - it is a very good post and relevant to this thread so I will copy it to here: Hello again, Been feeling rather down and upset today seeing all the snow melting away but I think that feeling is also added to by the fact that we have had fully entact snowcover on the ground for over a week which is unusual for my area (Liverpool) so seeing it go is rather saddening - I will certainly miss walking over ground covered in powdery snow and the way it has all gone is certainly depressing with heavy rain speeding up the thaw so I feel for a lot of you on here as I know many of you are more excitied by this weather than I am. I would always have -3C, sunny and snow on the ground any day over 2C, rain and wind - any day. The snowcover also brightens up the landscape during the dark nights in winter it seems so depressing when it all turns to rain. There also seems to be a metaphorical significance in the thawring of snow which makes me rather emotional - it tells you that in nature nothing lasts for ever - it reminds me of the ending of that well known cartoon film "The Snowman" where he just melts away at the end and the boy is very upset . But the positive side of me also tells me that we are only at the end of December and that the synoptics for this winter have been very different from your typical "even larger teapot" with seemingly endless mild South Westerly wind and rain off the atlantic. In fact history tells us that a December as cold as the one we have just had, we can expect at least a cold January in most cases (can Mr Data back me up on that one) and usually a cold February too (although there are exceptions like 1982 and 1917). Remember that in most historically cold winters like 1981-82, 1962-63 and 1978-79 the cold and snow was not continous and there was often a milder interlude before the cold and snow returns with avengance. In fact from a statistical point of view a have a feeling that this winter overall will come as at least the coldest since 1962-63. We have managed to get the coldest December in over 100 years, so can we go all the way and beat 1962-63. If that is not possible I would be happy for us to beat 1978-79 and be the coldest since 1963 - could you see that being the case? It is also worth understanding that by UK standards we have had a very cold severe spell of weather giving a taste of what the winter weather is like in more "continental" climates like Chicago, Toronto and Moscow - which I have found very interesting. In fact even if you lived a temperate continental climate like Chicago and Toronto it is not always subzero, snow and ice all the way for 3 months most winters have milder interludes were the tempeatures go above freezing resulting in a thaw for a bit so at the moment we are giving areas like these a run for thier money which I find amazing! I do think that we will be on this forum again in the not too distant future discussing the specifics of our next snowfall. I wish everyone on this forum a very happy and hopefully snow and cold New Year. Luke

So would you see a sub zero month as being odds on KW even with a breakdown just after Boxing Day? Amazing achivement especially considering we have not have had a subzero December for over 100 years! That is amazing in itself regardless of how the rest of the winter goes! Luke

I do think that even though we might not get the coldest December ever we are certainly odds on to beat 1981 which would mean that we have the coldest December for over 100 years which would be an impressive record especially after all the mild winters we have endured and I do still think we will get a negative CET figure the first since 1986. I also have a feeling and it is just a hunch at the moment that January is going to be a colder month than December and it is possibly going to be the coldest since at least 1963 would that mean that we get the coldest winter since 1963? I think February might be too close to call at the moment but I think it will still be below average. Luke

Hi, I am just wondering even though we are now in High Summer, July and August why is it that we are now lucky to exceed 20C on most days, never mind 25C in my location (Liverpool)? In June I would have considered myself lucky to get 25C but I would have expected tempeatures to exceed 20C on most days as a matter of course but now most days seem to be peaking in the high teens at best since the middle of July. Does anyone know when 21C/70F was last exceeded in my location, it will now feel really warm when we get 70F/21C (never mind 25C) as I think I have now acclimatised to the cooler conditions. This even now appears to be reflected in the local weather forcast on the TV as they are now describing tempeatures in the high teens as warm. I am just wondering why a weather pattern that makes it difficult to exceed 20C has been so stubborn since mid July because our average max for our area at this time of year is about 20C so statistically quite a few days in July and august should exceed 20C. Is it something to do with the seemingly endless cloud cover we have had for the last few weeks most days have at least started with 8/8 cloud cover and many have been consistantly cloudy thoughout the day, so much so that I am noticing the warmth and power of the sun when it does appear, does anyone else notice this? Luke

Hi, I don't think it will be as bad as the last 3 Julys especially 2007 and 2008 for example where I am not far down the road from you we have not had that much rain our first significant rainfall is today - I think the CET tempeature will be higher this month and this month will be the warmest since July 2006 why do you think a poor july is possible yes it is unsettled at the moment but most long range forecasts (including the MetO and our own Netweather forecast) are going for a warm HP dominated last week of July/first week of August do you see that happening and if not why? It would be nice to see a warm settled end to July as it coincides with the first week of the school holidays. Luke

Hi, I am from Liverpool do you think I have a good chance of a decent thunderstorm over the next week we did have a few thunderstorms last summer including one that woke me up at about 3AM - is thier even a chance of seeing anything over the next 24 hours? Or later in the week when thier may be more potential I think that we are overdue a thunderstorm here at the moment. Luke

But even the current model output is nowhere near as bad as July 2007 IMO, it cannot get much worse than that summer! I cannot see this summer being anywhere as near as bad as summer 2007 or 2008 even if we get a poor or mediocre second half to the summer, I would however trade off a settled second half of the summer for more thundery activity though. Luke

Hi, It seems as so there has been a lot of cloud cover up here which is preventing temperatures rising significantly is thier any chance of this cloud breaking up soon so we can have a warm and sunny afternoon? Luke

Hi, Of course most of the talk on this thread has been about the South East where most of the heat is going to be but what sort of temperatures could I expect where I am (Liverpool). Would 25C or even 26C be possible for me on Saturday - if it is going to be 31-32C down south then surely a 25C should be possible up here in this warm and humid air mass? What sort of temps should I expect for tommorow (Friday) - could 24C be possible BBC are going for 22 up here but usually thier temperatures are a bit to conservative so on the face of it I would expect around 24C especially when the cloud breaks up in the afternoon. Also as I mentioned on the model thread do you think we could see a warm, settled end to July even in northern areas I have noticed both the Met Office and BBC monthly outlooks seem to still be going for such an scenario and I would like to see it happen I would like to see at least one day pushing 30C even up here do you think it is possible? Luke

Hi, Why is it that there has been very little in the way of thundery activity for my area this year so far? Yes I know it has been drier than usual but normally we do get a few storms in June/July it is possible that quite severe thunderstorms are possible in my area I remember being woken up by a bad thunderstorm when I was a kid would have been in the late 1980s - with thunder directly overhead and lightning every few seconds or so - I was scared then but I like thunderstorms now and find then quite exciting what sort of synoptical setup could have produced a storm like that Spanish Plume type event it was in the early hours of the morning we also had a similar "night storm" last July I always find night storms the most spectacular what are the prospects for some good storms for the next few weeks or so I really need July to deliver storm wise for my area - also does anyone else remember any really severe thunderstorms that have stuck in thier minds? Also with it being really warm and humid with southely winds why isn't thier any thundery activity with this front we have passing over us at the moment why is it just plain old rain? Luke

Hi, Do you think that this summer could follow a similar patten to 1947 considering the way it is going so far - for example the summer of 1947 followed a cold winter and it was a long hot summer (but I don't think it was as warm and dry as 1976) with all 3 summer months above average and from the archives it seemed that that summer peaked in August but thier was quite a major heatwave in June - July was hot too - a CET of 18C does anyone know if the synoptics in the summer of 1947 were similar in any respects to what we have seen so far this summer - was the hot summer in 1947 caused by a pesistant mid atlantic blocking high ridging over the UK/NW Europe (rather like this summer so far), pesistant Azores ridging or a high pressue block to the east of the UK or over mainland Europe - and was the summer of 1947 as dry as what we have experienced in this summer so far? Also I have read GPs recent posts explaining that the current downstream signals/teleconnections etc. are not conductive to a 1995/1976/2006 style summer at present can anyone explain to me why that is the case and is it possible for some other factors to override the downstream signals/teleconnections for example 1995 summer was during a weak to moderate La Nina which normally favours cool and unsettled weather but it ended up being one of the warmest summers on record, and we all know that last winter was a weak to moderate El Nino which normally favours mild winters but we all know what happened then. And also I have noticed that this month has turned out warmer than what you might of thought from reading posts about the downstream signals from the likes of GP etc. (e.g. he predicted a Mid Atlantic Ridge) earlier in the month so do you think that this summer could still turn out to be one of the better summers of the last 10 years or so overall with quite a warm or even hot July - of course I want warm weather for my birthday on the 18th July! Luke

Felt quite warm where I am though - 26C is about right I call it hot but not too hot (like 30 degrees C+) - so I thought it was pleasent and even with the breeze it still felt warm with the humidity involved aswell - BTW was that breeze a classic "sea breeze" set up and do you get them often where you are on the coast? Luke

Hi, Talking of this so-called "mid atlantic ridge" pattern does anyone have any examples of where it was dominant in previous summers? Was it dominant in the summer of 1993 which was considered to be as dry but cool summer for most? I have also read comparisons to 1988 in particular June was it the dominant pattern that month as it was mainy a dry and sunny month but not much in terms of above average temperatures? Also I have noticed looking at the WZ archives that the major heatwave in 1990 started out with HP to the west was that the case? Would show that this set up can deliver hotter than average tempertures if the HP is in the right position. Luke