lukemc

Would you expect the ECM to be a cool outlier I would think so (as that low does not seem to have support from the other models) - and is thier the possibility that we could have widespread 24-25 degrees C temperatures by the end of next week as IMO a summer without 25 degrees plus temps at least on some days is like a winter without frost and snow. Anyway that low on the ECM is still quite far in FI so I don't think it has much chance of coming of as shown and the trend still seems to be towards warm, settled weather do you agree? Luke

I don't think I would agree with a cool (i.e. below average) outlook though I do think we could expect at least average temperatures especially if there is little cloud and a lot of sunshine remember we are now nearly into the middle of June were insolation from the sun is at its strongest and I think temperatures should easily reach 21-22C if it is sunny for the weekend especially if the winds are slack. As for next week I would agree that above average temperatures are looking increasingly likley - do you think the HP could remain in situ for a while allowing the heat to build resulting an a warm spell similar to the one we had at the beginning of the month - it would not take much movement in that high pressure to create really warm or even heatwave conditions in my opinion. Also I have noticed that a lot of central and eastern europe are experiencing very warm temperatures at the moment isn't thier a possibility that that heat could be sent in our direction by only very small changes in synoptics - looking at some of the temperatures in Eastern Europe at the moment, a straight easterly flow over the UK in the next few weeks certainly wouldn't be cool! (And it wouldn't take much change to the NE'ly flow shown in some of the models at present for that to happen). Luke Luke

Hi, Do you think that warm and settled weather is looking increasingly likley next week? Maybe not exactly on topic for this thread but I do not like having to wear a coat or layers in the summer months period! I think summer should be summer. Even though we do not live in a mediterrian climate we should expect at least some warm and settled weather in the summer months. The good thing though is that thier has not really been that much rain (in my area at least) over this so called "unsettled" week. I have noticed that the consensus on this forum is againsed this year being a particually good summer but do you think that some of the long range forecasts could actually be wrong and we do get a really good summer on the lines of 2006 or 1995? Remember a lot of people on this forum were saying that it was going to be a mild winter (including Ian Brown as we all know) but it actually turned out to be the coldest winter since 1978 - I see no reason to rule out a hot summer too! Luke

Why are you not confident about HP rebuilding? Surely if we do have a cooler and more unsettled period thier is nothing IMO in the way of high pressure building sooner rather than later even in quite poor summers we have had HP dominated spells mid summer like last year at the end of June/beginning of July or in 2008 in mid-late July so even if an unsettled pattern where to continue a rebuild of HP should be just as likley. I do have a question regarding the "mid atlantic high" scenario - reading posts on this forum seems to suggest that it is to be associated with poor weather in the summer but is that always the case? Surley it could either ridge across us, merge with the Azores high or even a Euro high to give us a warm or even hot settled spell so when the likes of GP mention the Mid Atlantic High do they take that possibility into account? Luke

Hi, It does appear that the ECM does want to build the high pressure again after that LP progged for next saturday clears though it looks like thier is potential for a warm pattern to build from thier on it could just be the case that it is delaying the warm pattern more than the other models. Luke

Indeed thier does seem to be some quite autumnal looking deep lows in that FI but that's all it is - FI and the tendancy in the summer especially is for the lows to be downgraded nearer the time and I would not really consider those lows to be that viable at this time of year I would imagine a low of that depth and extent in June would be a rarity in itself so maybe it is GFS going of on one in FI again. Anyway a few warm days to enjoy is in the bag even if that did occur. The only thing that would possibly worry me is that we were looking at similar charts this time year that moved into the reliable timeframe after initially being in FI during the warm spell at the beginning of June, but the positive thing was the unsettled spell did not last that long before warm settled weather again returned in later June/early July. I am not sure if we had cross model agreement then on the unsettled weather coming of - we don't at this present time as it is only the GFS that is going for this more unsettled option at present. Anyway do you think that this summer could be at least more thundery than the last few is thier much potential for thunderstorm activity as I believe some poor/cool summers have also been quite thundery I believe that summer 1985 had some quite potent thundery outbreaks. Luke

What make you think a poor summer is likely? IMO even if we do get a poor summer a decent summer is equally likley as after 3 poor summers in succesion a good summer could be considered likley on the law of averages and also consider the fact that we are overdue a really warm month (16C CET or more) as we haven't had one of them since 2006. Luke

Hi, I think I will have a bet on the CET tempeature for June I am expecting 15.7C which would be above average if that came of would it be the warmest June since 2006? Luke

Hi, I am intrested to here about the statistical link that a cold winter makes a cool and/or wet summer likley as I would dispute it in some respects for example we know that some cold winters were followed by quite mediocre summers like 1963, 1982 and 1985 but there were the cold winters of 1946/47, 1954/55, 1968/69 and to some extent 1995/96 which where followed either by a hot summer or quite a respectable summer with several noteable heatwaves. So I would say that a cold winter does not always mean a cold and/or wet summers and also it seems to be that cool and/or wet summers are just as likely to follow mild winters than cold ones for example the washout of 2007 followed an exceptionally mild winter, similar for 1998 and 1993 was a classic example in this respect as the cool summer that year came on the back of a very mild winter so that further disputes that thier is a link between the winters weather and the weather the following summer. Also does anyone have an example of a year where there was a cold winter followed by a cool and/or wet summer that had either a dry May or a significant warm spell in late May. It does seem that May 1947 had a significant heatwave near the end with 30C being exceeded but I am not sure weather it was a dry May though so maybe as far as May is concerned 1947 is more of an anologue and this summer would be more likely to be a good one in that respect. And I have also read on these forums that the teleconnections do not support a hot summer this year - does anyone know what the teleconnection signals for the following summer where showing just before the summers of 2003 and 2006? Luke

So do you think a poor summer this year is nailed on then? Do you really see it being 4 poor summers in a row with no improvement at all on the last 3 - remember if you look over the last 3 summers they have actually shown an improving trend since the dire wet summer of 2007, 2008 had more warm settled spells than 2007 and summer 2009 was better overall than 2008 for heat and sun so why wouldnt you expect maybe not a 1976 type summer but a slightly better one than last year this year? Also remember that cold winters are not necessarily followed by washout summers - 1947 was an example of that and poor summers are just as likley to follow mild winters than cold ones for example 2007 followed one of the mildest winters on record. Remember to we are in a prolonged dry spell at the moment and thier is nothing to suggest it will not continue and also that blocking does not mean wet weather infact often quite the opposite (HP domination). Do you consider the evidence againsed a decent summer to be overwhelming or something even 2 weeks before the start of official summer? Bit depressing for me to hear that news because I am not going away abroad this year so I really do need this summer to be an improvement on the last 3 for my own sanity LOL! Luke

Hi, Do you think I could see at least some falling snow or even some lying snow this week? Of course I live in Liverpool and do you think we could be in the firing line as I have read that north western areas are favored looking at the snow risk and snow depth maps the risk seems to include us I know we had lying snow in Liverpool in April 2008 but most of it had melted by lunchtime do you think if I get lying snow it will melt away quite quickly due to the stronger sun at this time of year?

Hi, How similar is this upcoming event to April 2008 - could we expect something similar as April 2008 had lying snow even down to the south coast not saying that will happen this time as the low pressure is further north but could Northern parts of England expect something similar - and where the synoptics in April 2008 similar? It would be interesting to know what the thickest snowdepth recorded in lowland England in April is does anyone know that and what was the snowiest April on record? Luke

Do you genuinely think that we have entered a run of poor summers similar to the 1980s or 1960s then Eugene? Personally I think that even if we have entered a run of poor summers, it has to change and sooner or later we will get another hot summer what you have got to understand is that in the 80s even though we had some real stinkers of summers like 1988 (especially July) there where also decent summers aswell like 1983 and 1989 so even in the 1980s we did not go more than a few years without experiencing a decent summer so one has got to happen sooner rather than later so I do think in statistical terms at least we are due a good summer. As for a cold winter preventing a good summer to follow I do not buy that theory I think that the previous winter has no effect on the summer that follows as they are normally determined by different factors coming together for example the summer of 1947 was hot following one of the coldest winters of the 20th century and the summer of 1996 couldn't really be called a "poor" summer after the chilly winter of 1995-96. As for GP's opinion that the teleconnections/signals as they stand at the moment are not favorable for a hot summer, is I think there is still plenty of time for things to change in our favour as we a still only in March remember - a full 2 months away from the beginning of official meteorological summer remember GP was expecting a mild February for a long time which turned out to be colder than average - so even an excellent and well respected amateur forecaster like GP can sometimes get it wrong especially far in advance. So Eugene I think you are a bit premature in writing of the coming summer a full 2 months before that start of official meteorological summer - is this the earliest "Summer is Over" post we have seen on this forum? Do you have a psychic mind that can see forward into the future or something (only joking of course)! Luke

Hi, Is a neutral to negative AO/NAO signal in the summer more likley to result in a poor or washout summer? Did the summer of 2007 have a negative AO/NAO signal? I thought that was mainly a result of a La Nina pattern resulting in a more southerly tracking jet. Is a negative AO likley to result in a southerly tracking jet in the summer. Is it also likely to suppress the possibility of Azores ridging leaving us prone to more cooler/unsettled incursions? Luke

Isn't this a bit too far out to making an accurate forecast for this summer, remember we are still only in March and that forecast doesn't even include May which can bring warm spells too (remember the warm spell we got in May 2008 I thought that was warm and humid and we got a good thunderstorm from it too). I am just wondering what they are basing that forecast on? It is not like their is currently a signal for most of June to be cool and wet? And the second half of July too? Is the forecast based on a weakening El Nino trending neutral and even towards a weak El Nina? Or the jetstream being so far south (further south than average) over the winter period and expecting that to continue into summer? Maybe the saving grace is that they expect a settled and warm/hot spell at the beginning of June, again at the end of June and beginning of July, and then another warm spell in the middle of July (which seems to be around my birthday - 18th July) and then again in mid August so if that came of I don't think it seems as bad as I initially thought when I first read it - it seems more like they are expecting a "mixed" summer rather than a "poor/cool/wet" summer similar to the last summer with quite a few opportunities for 30C to be reached based on that forecast. Luke

Hi, Do you think that if this spring stays predominately mild it could mean a warm or hot summer to follow? Yes I know we had a warm spring in 2007 which was followed by a poor summer but it could prove that temperatures are on the rise and the transition towards the summer months is underway - is the weather pattern we are in at the moment more typical for El Nino and isn't that expected to last into early Summer? So if this pattern continues I could expect a rather warm first half to summer including May. As we all know 2007 resulted from a stong La Nina pattern, and I do think that it will take a while for an El Nino pattern to wind down. A question. I have heared some this forum and other forums mention the theory that being at a solar minimum makes a poor summer more likely? Personally I do not think that that is true because I would think that as long as we have the right synoptics the strong insolation at that time of year will mean that high temperatures are still possible - also wasn't the hot summer of 1995 at a solar minimum? - and 1995 was a hot summer both here and in the USA and across most of the NH I would have thought aswell? - as this graph shows: http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/images/solarcycleupdate/ssn_predict_l.gif That also shows the solar minimum has already peaked and solar activity is currently on the rise again so if we did get a poor summer this year I don't think sunspots will be to blame. Luke

So do you think we could see another quite mediocre summer then? Personally I think that this summer is more likely to be better than the last three - especially in July as statistically we are due an above average one (remember we have not had an above average July since 2006 so it would not take much to get the warmest July since 2006!). Also remember the cold winter of 1995-96 (which had a rather cold spring too) was followed by quite a decent summer heatwise with several heatwaves, the realitivly cold winter of 2005-2006 (with the coldest period in late winter and Early Spring) was followed by one of the warmest summers on record, and of course the famous winter of 1946-1947 was followed by an equally ground breaking summer for the time one of the warmest of the 20th century. Also don't forget 1975 had a cold and snowy Spring which continued into June with the famous "snowed off" cricket game and then a few weeks later we were talking heatwaves! So I do not buy the idea that cold winters mean a poor summer. Luke

Hi, I did notice when we reached 15C in sunshine for the first time last year after a rather cold winter, in mid March, as I was quite acclimatised to the cold by then, that it really did feel like a summers day - it felt really warm even though 15C is what would be considered cool in the summer - did anyone else notice the same effect and do you think when we do get 15C for the first time it will feel really balmy as this winter has been even colder than the last? Luke

Hi, I did notice when we reached 15C in sunshine for the first time last year after a rather cold winter, in mid March, as I was quite acclimatised to the cold by then, that it really did feel like a summers day - it felt really warm even though 15C is what would be considered cool in the summer - did anyone else notice the same effect and do you think when we do get 15C for the first time it will feel really balmy as this winter has been even colder than the last? Luke

Hi, Does anyone know what the earliest date that a) 25 degrees C and 30 degrees C could be possible in the UK under the right conditions? Does anyone know the earliest dates that these temperatures where recorded in the UK? I am just thinking could their ever be the case where 30 degrees C could be recorded in April in the UK and could 25 degrees C be possible by the first week of April? Was the warm spell in April 2007 caused by high pressure with a southerly continental feed? I am thinking we might see our first 25 degrees C early this year, possibly by early May what do you think (similar to May 1990)? Luke

Why do you think the rest of the week will be cloudy ? as we are under high pressure and some of said that the high pressure over us is a "sunny high" rather than "anticyclonic gloom" Luke

Hi, Do you think that we could see one more widespread snow event before we finally see a warm up as Spring arrives in earnest? As we all know snowy episodes in March and even April are certainly possible so do you think we could be looking at a snowy spell say in the middle of this month before milder weather takes hold. Of course it won't stay on the ground that long because of the strengthening sun but significant falls cannot be ruled out. Most Marches in recent years have seen at least some snowfall and I would not expect this one to be an exception especially after the cold winter we have had. Talking of that was April 2008 a Northerly event and was it a frontal type snow event? Luke

Hi, Talking of the prospects for the coming summer, wasn't the winter of 2005/06 rather cold and "blocked" with a rather cold first half to spring and the fact that in some respects we just missed out on a severe winter similar to the one we have just had (it was quite a severe winter in parts of Mainland Europe and 2006 was a hot summer here and on the continent to). And I also remember that the Met Office actually forecast a cold winter that year so they almost got it right (was winter 2005-06 the coldest since 1995/96 at the time or 1996/97?) And we know that that winter was followed by warm to very warm summer so it goes to show that a blocked continental type winter can be followed by a similar type summer. Luke

Hi, With this high pressure continuing in situ for a number of days is it possible we could see a snowy breakdown (i.e. a transitional snow event) if the Atlantic breaks through? Can the Atlantic pushing in against the HP result in a battleground type snow event I am thinking along the lines of March 2006 was that caused by LPs pushing against a HP in situ? Also is the trend to take the easterlies and hence the HP cells further south (therefore reducing the chance of precipitation over the British Isles) this winter a symptom of the jetstream being so far south? Luke

And as we all know snow is possible well into March and going by the experience of past Marches over the last 6 years or so I would be extremely surprised if we did not get lowland snow at least in some areas of England this March. Video taken in Liverpool not far from where I live March 2006: http://www.youtube.com/watch#playnext=1&playnext_from=TL&videos=9rGtJuO0jvA&v=fe3ZoACw16c Anyway what where the exact synoptics and upper temps in that event? Despite someone posting on this forum that we need -10Hpa uppers to get lying snow in March, I have read a post on the NW Regional forum saying that the uppers for that event where not that high and actually quite marginal. I think there was 12cm or more in parts of lowland NW England from that and it extended into Western Scotland and of course North Wales too. Was it a battleground event and did it come out of a northerly? Anyway considering that I would not bet against lowland snow this March, and is it true that in recent years March has often been snowier than December? So it is perfectly possible for places to have thier heaviest snowfall of the winter in March so plenty to keep the interest going on these forums for snow as we go into March. Also did March 1996 which was also cold have any significant snow events? Luke