lukemc

Hi, Do you think we could see any further snowfall in our region this week? Of course we all know from the likes of 2006 that March can deliver. And also do you think that we will see some air frosts later this week with temperatures of a night going below freezing? It will be a nice way to finish off the winter before Spring begins in earnest. Luke

Hi, Although some have mentioned that very cold winters with a CET less than about 2 or 3C are statistically more likely to be followed by cooler summers (seasonal CET less that 15C), even if that is the case, I do think that the fact this winter was an El Nino one could alter the mechanics in a way that the coming summer would more likely to be warmer than average than if this was not an El Nino winter for example I know that this winter will come as one of the coldest winters where a moderate to strong El Nino was present so maybe a better comparison when trying to predict the conditions for the forthcoming summer will be those sub 3C CET winters where an El Nino was present and their following summers rather than sub 3C winters overall. This could especially be the case if the current El Nino pattern continues into the following summer without receding to neutral until late summer. Talking of that does anyone know if the cold winters of 1947 and 1955 which were followed by good summers where El Nino winters? Luke

Hi, Does anyone know what the snow depth record is for the Liverpool/Merseyside area - have we ever achieved more than a foot of level snowfall? Would that be in 1963/1947 or possibly even earlier than that in say the 19th century? I am also interested in how the 5th January snowfall (the deepest snowfall for my area this winter) compares with other snow events in the past - was that the deepest snow that we have had in Liverpool since February 1996? March 2006? or did it exceed those events brining the deepest fall since 1981/82? I knew that it was the deepest snowfall in Liverpool since at least March 2006 looking at the depth of the snow (in a single fall of course!) I would also find it very interesting to know snowdepths for my area in the past for example did we get quite deep snow (by that I mean at least a few cm or so) in January 1985, February 1986, January 1987, December 1990 (that was a bit of a blizzard in the Midlands but did Liverpool/NW get any lying snow from it?), February 1991, February 1994 (I am pretty sure Liverpool had snow on the ground from that one - remember being ambushed by snowballs (painful) at school but does anyone know what the depths where?) etc. and are their any other events you can remember? It would be nice to have a record of snowfall and depths for my area like they do for many individual cities in the USA etc. I also know for certain that we had snow on the ground in Liverpool in February 2009, December (31) 2008 (slight dusting), January 2009 (dusting i think) April 2008, February 2007 and March 2006 but does anyone remember any more events to add to my record? Anyway it has been a very good winter as far as snow is concerned for my area, but can anyone confirm has this been the snowiest winter overall since 1981/82? Luke

So do you think that even though this winter was the coldest since 1978/79 (I think), we where very close to even exceeding that winter and recording the coldest and snowiest winter since 1963 and 1947 (or even rivaling them?)? What do you think the main reasons are for not achieving a winter rivaling those historic winters of the 20th century? Is it the lack of a prolonged potent easterly spell? At least we can say that this winter was the coldest of the 21st century so far the UK and Northern/NW Europe, do you think that we could get a winter in our lifetimes that could event beat this one and be on a par with the above? Certainly I do think we will get a 1947 par winter in our lifetimes and it will also be pretty safe to assume we will get a 1976 type summer in our lifetimes too possibly even before 2020. Anyway how cold can March be? Is it theoretically possible for March to be as cold as December? As in my area one of the largest snowfalls of the last decade came in March and I think that most Marches over the last 10 years or so have seen some snow events with significant falls in some areas so I would be extremely surprised if we do not get at least one snow event this March. I think that some meteorologists define the first half as March as winter is that true especially in North America where severe snowfall and ice days are possible well into March and even April? Luke

Talking of that what was the summer of 1991 like following the cold spell in 1991 wasn't that quite warm overall? And 1997, following the realitivly cold winter of 1996-97 had a very warm second half? Does an average to cool summer normally mean an unsettled summer, or can it also be rather settled with warm days and cool nights? I would disagree on an unsettled summer being the form horse this year however as I think that the blocking patterns could continue into the summer months which could keep the Atlantic out and lead the settled and rather warm weather by day. Luke

Hi, To start with with official winter coming to an end I should revive this thread with my thoughts on what the forthcoming summer may be like. Is it true that their is a collaration between cold winters and poor/cool summers? I think I do remember Mr Data stating last year that the statistics show that cold/severe winters are more likely to be followed by below average summers? But personally I do not believe that the winter pattern has any bearing on the pattern for the following summer which is likely to be determined by different factors. Also it is true that we can get quite a few warm and settled days even in so called poor summers. I do think that the coming summer will be warmer than the last, continuing the improving trend (remember last summer was better than 2007 and 2008) and I do think we are due drier summer this year with below average rainfall, and I think we will have a warm to hot July in particular, maybe not as hot as 2006 but pleasant nevertheless (I would go for the hottest July since 2006 with a notable heatwave mid month). I also think that like last summer, most of the rainfall will be convective rather than frontal in nature (unlike the likes of 2007 that had a lot of frontal rainfall leading to devastating flooding), I also think it will be more thundery than the last 3 summers with some quite severe thundery outbreaks in places and more by the way of "Spanish Plume" events bringing MCS thunderstorms to our shores - what do you think - would that make a decent summer? Luke

Hi, Although we have had quite a severe winter especially by recent standards, I have seen posts stating that despite quite a few major snow events for most one thing that has been lacking this winter is a severe blizzard like snowstorm with widespread falls over a very wide area and very large accumulations - by this I would define as an event that produces widespread accumulations of a foot or more even over low ground and possibly accompanied by strong winds (30mph+) and very high accumulation rates (several cm/hr). By this I mean something on the scale of the recent snowstorm hit the East Coast of the USA (with Washington being hit the hardest of course) - would something on that scale be possible in the UK? I would also like to know what sort of synoptics we would need to get such an event? Would it be a battleground scenario with an Atlantic Low/fronts coming up a very cold block over Europe? Would it require the presence of a strong Greenland high? Also I am interested in the synoptics that causes such heavy snowstorms along the US East Cost is the most common set up resulting in this situation a Northeaster storm - is that where an area of low pressure moves in a Northeasterly direction from the Gulf of Mexico up the Eastern Seaboard towards New York/Boston - does the heavy snow result from the deep low pressure interacting with deeply embedded cold air over the North American landmass (i.e. polar continental air) and if so is it similar to our battleground situations with Atlantic lows moving into a cold block of continental air? Luke

Hi, It also seems that Greece has had a bit of a heatwave over the last week or so apparently they have just recorded the record February temperature not just for Greece but possibly the whole of Europe of 32.1 degrees C and with 80F plus temps widespread across Greece - that is as high as the UK summer maximum for 2009! Goes to show that thier really is some sort of link between our weather and Greek weather with the conditions being almost the polar opposite at the moment - so if you can't wait until summer to get a tan etc. then Greece is certainly the place to go at the moment! Luke

Yes I think it has been a fantastic winter it does look like that this winter will become officially the coldest since 1978/79 which is really good for cold and snow lovers. Also we know that it has been a colder than average winter not just for the UK and Northwestern Europe but also Eastern Europe, China, the Eastern part of the US and the Midwestern US but is it true that the Pacific Northwest of the US (which also includes Western Canada where of course the Winter Olympics are being hosted) has had a very mild winter? I thought I read that Seattle has had a record mild January is that correct? Have the conditions in Seattle this winter been similar to what we get in our midler more zonal type winters with LP after LP piling in bringing constant wind and rain? Also have Greece been milder than average considering that they often experience colder than average temperatures when we are milder than average? Luke

Yes as we are not expecting any precipitation tonight a hard frost is likely instead I would imagine some areas could record some pretty low minima tonight especially in those that have remaining snowcover GFS suggests -6 or lower could be possible for parts of our region so maybe no further snowfall but certainly a cold night and morning! Be interesting to see what some of you get down too especially those that have snowcover still intact as the temps could be very low for late February if the skies remain clear. I got a few cm of snow this morning but most of it has melted away during the daytime now. Anyway I am interested in the snow potential for later this week especially on Tuesday and Wednesday as even though I have had a lot of snow events this winter, and overall what has been a very snowy winter for this part of the world especially by recent standards, I still think it will be nice to get a very big dumping of snow that could rival record falls for a single event the sort of event I am thinking of is that of February 1996, could their be the potential for a similar event to that for this week as I have read post saying that their is the potential for very heavy snowfall totals for Northern England this week I did read that the latest Countryfile forecast suggests a mostly rain event for our region but that seems to be following the latest GFS output that puts the low further north (almost over Scotland) making it more marginal for us, but it seems to have little support from other model output including the UKMOs own model output and also I remember somebody posting on this forum that the February 1996 event was forecast to be rain at first but was then changed to heavy snow at a few hours notice, was that correct? Will be interesting to here your thoughts on this one also a question - how long did the February 1996 event last for and did it occur mainly overnight making the situation less marginal and is Tuesdays/Wednesdays event progged to occur overnight? Luke

Would that GFS FI be a similar outcome to late March 2009 or February 2008? With settled weather with warmish days but still with the possibility of frosts at night? I think many would welcome such settled weather with all the cold and snowfall that we have had this winter even among the cold and snow lovers on here! Yes I got quite a bit of snow this morning most of it has melted now but how is it looking for further snowfall for me later this week? (I am from Liverpool of course) - we have had a few good snow events this winter but it would be nice to get a lot of snow in a single event to rival records in winters in the past for single snowfalls if the ECM came of could I see quite a bit of snowfall this week? Surley their is the potential for a February 1996 style event for the North looking at current models - I would be delighted with that - anyway talking of February 1996, how long did that event last and what where the depth was it like a true snowstorm in sense of what was recently experienced on the East Cost of the USA with heavy drifting and blowing snow? Luke

Surely that would mean fog is likely, not snow! Luke

Hi, How is my area doing for the latest snow risk this week (i.e. the North West) the reason why I am asking this is it would be nice to see quite a bit of snow in what is the last week of official meteorological winter to put the icing on the cake for this winter, do you think we could see quite a bit this week as earlier models where putting our part of the north in the firing line this week (think the 0600 hrs GFS) - and as this week could be best described as a battleground situation between cold and milder air do you think we could see something similar to February 1996 or March 2006 which brought quite a lot of snow to NW England/N Wales? Luke

So why do you think that this set up is a lot more marginal with a lot of factors in our favour (Like a very negative AO/NAO etc.)? In fact it is getting cold outside now and now I am near to the coast. But was it true that similar events that brought lots of snow like February 1996 in the northwest etc. where also marginal like next weeks setup (as a matter of interest - what did the south get out of that event - was it mainly rain thier? Or just dry?) Luke

Hi, I am from Liverpool in the Northwest of England of course I know some say that we don't see as much snow as some other parts of the country but we have done quite well this winter with some good snow events including the event in January (5th I think) that effectively paralyzed Liverpool with busses stopping and assorts looking at the latest output do you think I will see at least one more good snow event before winter is out I think it would make the icing on the cake to what has been a very good winter snow wise for me! If that run verified, how much could I expect I know the Midlands would see the biggest falls but what could I expect could it rival February 1996 (which gave us a lot of snow in Liverpool - just goes so show that we can get big snowstorms just not as often as some other places!) Luke

I think it is amazing to get the sort of winter that we have had in many ways, especially when, just before last winter (2008-09) Ian Brown was arguing that a 1995-96 style winter was no longer possible - and this winter seems like it is going to beat that one and probably 1981/82 too making this the coldest winter for the British Isles since 1979 - just proves how wrong Ian Brown was all I need is now is a 2006 style summer and then 2010 will really be a good year for weather fans!

Hi, Do you think that climate change could be resulting in a more "continental" climate for the UK with a quieter Atlantic, an increased prevalence of blocked weather patterns and therefore trending towards warmer (and more humid) summers but colder winters? I was chatting to a regular of this forum on Facebook and his opinion was a cold winter was more likely to result in a poor summer (i.e. cool and unsettled) as he thinks the Atlantic will come back with a vengeance after a long absence) but it is true that cold winters are not always followed by poor summers (1947 winter was followed by a good summer and 1995-96 was preceded by a good summer) so I do think that the blocking could continue though to the summer months giving a more continental feel to things this year and therefore quite a warm and humid summer (but not necessarily dry though with quite a bit of convective/thunderstorm action) what do you think? Luke

Hi, Thanks for that reply it is always fascinating this sort of weather! Anyway is the synoptical situation for early next week in anyway similar to the battleground snowstorm of February 1996 or also March 2006 which both brought rather heavy snowfall to my city (and also I know if we get deep snow North Wales always gets it too - usually even deeper!) and does anyone remember those events and what the exact synoptical situation was - was March 2006 a battleground situation with Atlantic lows moving in pushing againsed colder air in situ? Luke

"Hi, Is the situation for next week best described as a "battleground" situation with a low from the SW moving into colder air from the north, is it similar synoptically to February 1996 or March 2006 when parts of Northern England ended up with a lot of snow? Luke

Hi, My name is Luke I am from North Liverpool so not too far away from North Wales so I have decided to have a pop in here to see what my snow chances are for my area we have had a few good falls this winter but what I am looking far is another good fall to finish off this winter for me and really seal this as one of the coldest and snowiest I have seen in my lifetime (at least as an adult)! Just to say it does seem to be getting cold out thier now do you think I could catch a shower or two tonight (a dusting)? And I have heard that thier is significant snow due for tomorrow night, then Sunday into Monday and that is due to arrive at night when temps should be lower ensuring anything that does fall should be of the white variety. Was a bit disappointed yesterday when I thought it should have been cold enough for snow (it was freezing outside) but we got light rain/drizzle instead but what do you think my chances are of getting one more good snowfall to but the icing on the cake for this winter? - looking at the evidence look pretty good but please keep me posted. Luke

Hi, Does anyone around me know what thier current DP is? is it possible it could turn to snow later? Especially if some if the heavier stuff makes it up this way. Surprising it is marginal considering what they have had further south of here. Luke

Hi, Yes seems to be a good sign for me here in Liverpool. Looking at the radar thier does seem to be the possibility of some of the heavier stuff currently over the Midlands making it this far north late on tonight should that readily turn to snow with evaporative cooling? Also does the fact that it is now after dark make the situation wrt snow less marginal? Also what is the situation on the snow event on Friday/Saturday for my part of the world I think some models where putting us in line for it is the precipitation expected to arrive overnight (therefore making it less marginal). Anyway with all these snow chances I would be surprised if we did not get a least one more covering of snow before winter is out do you agree? If it is marginal here it would be surprising because the wind is coming from a southerly direction and doesn't appear to be coming of the Irish Sea (bringing less chance of warm sea modification) so looking at that I would not consider it to be any more marginal than places further south that have had snow at low level what do you think? Luke

Oh yes just had some moderate snow (quite big flakes) here not bad not sticking at the moment though as the ground is wet it's defiantly snow though I like the "big flake" snow the best it seems to me that some snow that we have had has been big flakes for all of the snowfall and thier have been falls with mainly small fine flakes too what affects the size of a snowflake is it the dewpoint or the temperature or both? Luke

Hi, I was a bit disappointed that we did not get at least a few cm of snow this evening especially considering that I thought that the precipitation was going to arrive after sunset meaning that temperatures would be lower, meaning I would have expected snow rather than rain. Instead it seemed to break up does anyone know why this happened? And it has felt cold all day here too! What I would like too see is one more good snow event (with at least a few cm of covering) for my area before this winter is over and done with as in my opinion it will make this winter a real one to remember IMO. Do you think that will be possible over the next week or so? When do you think the best chance may come? I have heared that they could be numerous chances over this weekend and even early next week providing the models don't change to much also is thier a possibility the snow forecast for tomorrow affecting the Liverpool/Merseyside area if the front tracks further north than forecast? Whatever happens please keep me posted guys on the prospects of snow for my area! Anyway we should I least get a frost tonight I will imagine that will be the next best thing after snow for the cold lovers among us! Luke