lukemc

Hi, Do you think that further down if the cold air becomes established for some time we could see a heavy battleground snow event along similar lines to February 1996? Surely there is the potential for a very widespread frontal snow event if we had an Atlantic low attacking from the SW later down the line? Are the synoptics we are looking at in the models at the the moment similar to early February 1996 or that month as a whole - what was the synoptic situation that month? Luke

Hi, What sort of temperatures could we expect next week could we expect harsh or severe frosts at night with temps down to -5C or below and not getting much above freezing during daylight hours for example could the frosts be comparable to early January but without snowcover (assuming that we don't have snowcover by this stage)? Luke

Hi, Maybe not another 1947 but I would defiantly be happy with a 1996 style February do you agree?

Would a cold El Nino winter be more likely to be followed by a warmer than average summer? I am just thinking was 1947 one case where a severe winter was followed by a warm/good summer and wasn't 1947 characterized by a weak El Nino? I do think that this could be one of those few years where a cold winter is followed by a warm summer (and as quoted above possibly spring too) and with us having a run of realitivly poor summers I do think that summer this year could be rather different - warmer overall than even last summer the reason for this is that when we do get runs of poor summers they don't normally last more than 3 years (like in the 1980s where there was a run of poor summers that was ended by a warm one in 1989) - So 1989 style summer maybe? (Did that involve a decaying El Nino?) What do you think? Luke

Hi, Is it the case that the current teleconnections that are predicted at the moment are not supportive of a long term mild pattern for example I read a post saying the AO/NAO is progged to go deeply negative (or one of them was) - wouldn't that be more likely to result in a cold pattern in about a weeks time for mid February? Also again I ask what is the state of play with respect to the Polar Vortex - I have noticed no one has mentioned this in the last few days there does not to seem to be any organized PV over the Greenland area or predicted to be in the near future in any of the model output. (feel free to correct me if I am wrong on this). Now earlier in the winter (early December) I have read posts saying that the lack of any organized PV over Greenland makes it easier for a cold pattern to set up. Looking at just these factors alone I have been surprised by some of the posts I have read on weather forums that seem to imply that we will be stuck in a mild pattern for weeks on end! Another thing slightly OT but does anyone think a white Valentines Day could well be a possibility at the moment (do they take bets on that like they do with a white Xmas) - and when was the last "white" Valentines day - how common are they? Luke

Hi, Why wouldn't it be possible - Irish Sea influence/breeze? Wind direction? I notice that Manchester Airport is already down to -3C so surely -3 should be possible by morning if it stays clear. Luke

Hi, As you know I am in south Liverpool what sort of temperatures could I expect for tonight? Would -3 or -4 be possible I would expect it with clear skies what are your temps at the moment it will be nice to get a good frost also is there anything wintry expected either for tonight or tomorrow morning looking at the radar is their any chance that any of those snow showers currently over Scotland and Northern Ireland some of them currently quite intense could actually make it here? Luke

Hi, So if February was mild or milder than January or February would that be the same as saying that Summer 2006 was not a "historic summer" in the same way that say 1976 was because of the relatively poor August, and if that is the case that if we do get a mild February would it be the winter equivalent of Summer 2006 with a warm first 2/3s of summer and an average end?

Hi, Intresting seeing all these twists and turns from the models today but one think I must make clear is that IMO this is not a normal "modern" winter in terms of the synoptics and I would think that a prolonged period of mild zonality would have been likley going by tonights charts in past winters (e.g. before last winter) but this winter is different and even if we got a UKMO/ECM type pattern setting up do you think it could flip back to a cold scenario quicker than many on here think - epecially with all that cold to our east? Also if the ECM or the UKMO where to verify as programmed, would it be the case that it would not just be mild for the UK, but also much of mainland Europe too including those parts that have had severe cold until very recently? I also have a question - in early December I heared people on here comment that a cold outcome would be more likely because thier is no strong Polar Vortex over Greenland - what is the state of play with regard to the PV now? I would think that as long as we have no organised PV in the Greenland area a cold outcome would always be more probable? And do you think that GPs earlier call of a mild (or even very mild) febuary could actually be close to the mark now, and looking at tonights models do you think it could go the same way as 1982 or 1997 rather than 1963 or 1947 etc? Luke

Hi, Do you think we could see some snow showers this weekend because it looks like conditions would be right for snow unless it is mainly dry over at least part of this weekend (uppers etc.) - correct me if I am wrong. Also if we don't get snow will there be some hard frosts over this weekend what sort of temperatures could we expect (I am from South Liverpool btw) - could -4 or -5 be possible this weekend for us because if those skies are going to be clear it is going to go very cold isn't it? Also a question to the guys who live in my vicinity (like HC and Stephen Prudence etc.) - when did you last have an air frost and how long have you been "frost free" for as I haven't noticed one for over a week). Anyway I would expect a run of frost free night to broken this weekend. Anyway further down the line would you expect another major snow even for the North West in February, and with some predicting a cold February from model signals etc at the moment does anyone see the potential for a February 1996 style event this month? - that would be a great finale to a great winter if it where to happen! Luke

Hi, Again interesting model output which is always entertaining. Anyway a another question for you guys on here. Why is it that with their being very cold temperatures over Central/Eastern mainland Europe and Scandinavia at the moment is the UK remaining realtivly mild at the moment with many places not even recording a frost for over a week? Because I have noticed that during our cold spell in early January even though Germany, Poland, Scandinavia etc where cold, some places in the UK where at least as cold as Eastern Europe and even parts of Scandinavia at the time (remember -15C being recorded in Manchester?). Now with those sorts of temperates being recorded in Germany etc. not to far away from the UK, and temps pushing -30 in Helsinki etc. (severely cold even by their standards! - even places like Poland have not scene cold that intense for a long time) what interests me is what so different synoptically to the situation early in the month (and in December) that means that the British Isles is not in the "very cold club" at the moment? Another point would be that when parts of mainland Europe have got as cold as that in the past I think it has always been a precursor to a very cold spell in this country (for example wasn't it the case that before the 1987 severe spell one of the first signs was very cold temperatures over say East Germany a few days before - for example -20C in Berlin) - do you think that the same thing could happen again this time? Would be difficult to even consider a mild outcome with all that cold air around us! Luke

Hi, Just asking if this high pressure expected after the projected northerly blast would result in frosts by night and if mild only mild by day for example might we expect something similar to February 2008? Or January 2009 with it being cold by day? Just asking as I normally do not look at the models myself. Also I have a question for you on here. It seems that a lot of posters on here do not seem to be optimistic about a cold and/or snowy February, at least for the first half with a mainly downbeat mood prevailing. Why is this so considering we have had the one of the coldest winters for the last 30 years and the fact that for this part of the world February is often the coldest month and for where I live at least it is the snowiest month. Is their any credible scientific basis at the moment to say that February will mild or will at least not be cold considering the winter we have had so far and especially looking at how cold parts of mainland Europe have been which has not been the case in the mild winters of the last two decades? Luke

Hi, A few questions with regards to the current output: 1) Even if the output indicates cold and dry with frosts by night would it still be possible to get widespread frontal snow events in the not too distant future like those that occurred in February 1996, 2007, March 2006 etc.? Of course we know that these situations can crop up at short notice and can be trigged by an incoming Atlantic front where the cold air fights back. 2) As we all should know, for the UK and also for most of Europe this winter has been, throughout so far very different synoptically and metrologically very different from the so called "even larger teapot" pattern that we have become so used too over the past two decades or so. During a typical modern type winter like 1997/1998 we usually had a very strong roaring Atlantic jetstream bringing mild weather (zonal dross) well into Eastern Europe and even as far as western Russia! Now everything is very different for example their seems to be a very deep pool of cold air within a few hundred miles of the UK which is a very short distance on a global scale. Have you seen the progged temps for Berlin for example they are expected to stay below freezing for a week or more with daytime temps well below freezing! Yes I know that Berlin is on average colder in winter than the UK due to continental influence but really only slightly (especially compared to places like Canada and the American Midwest) so that is very cold for them! So I am just wondering why some people where calling a mild (or average/benign) outlook for the end of January/into Febuary based on some model runs that have appeared over the last few days as IMO it would not take very much for that cold pool to reach us at short notice, anyway isn't that what happened earlier this month and in December, with parts of Eastern/Central Europe getting very cold first and then later it ended up effecting us? Luke

So really do you see a mild (i.e. above average) February as being nailed on now? That is surprising considering that February is often the most blocked month of the winter and is often the coldest month in this country and also taking into consideration that this winter has behaved a lot differently in synoptic terms than previous winters of the last decade or so. Also there is the possibility of a stratospheric warming event. Also SSTs are lower too! I cannot see how anyone can call a mild February based on a single automated computer model run (I presume ECM). And even if most of February was mild I would then expect a cold or even very cold spell late February into March. What evidence do you have to say that the majority of Febuary will be mild? Luke

Here is a question for people on here. Is the ECM showing typical "even larger teapot" style synoptics? If yes I would be surprised to see it be that plausible because I think this winter, and indeed the last have been anything but "modern" in that context. Also would the evolution shown by the ECM be of a mild "zonal" type or a cold or average "zonal type" e.g. would widespread double figures be likely if it verified? I am also asking that a zonal type pattern becomes established, with SSTs being so low by recent standards from the recent cold spell could cold or very cold zonality be possible which could bring a fair amount of snowfall to Northern and Western areas of the British Isles something like January 1984 or March 1995? Luke

Hi, Apart from the February 1982 scenario do you think we could possibly see a February similar to 1996? Because another winter that this one seems similar too is 1995-96 and I remember February 1996 because that gave a major snowstorm in our neck of the woods - North West England (Liverpool) I believe that was caused by a stalling Atlantic front hitting a cold pool of air out to the east (is the cold pool to our east predicted for next week any similar - with the threat of fronts making their way in later down the line producing widespread frontal snowfall?) and I think was proceeded by some very cold frosty nights. Does anyone else member this event and what February 1996 was like for cold and snow overall? Can anyone also explain the synoptics for that month where they predominately easterly, northerly etc? I also read that March was also cold in 1996 did that get much snowfall? Also as a matter of interest does anyone have any memories of snowfalls in my area (Liverpool/Merseyside) in the past - what was our heaviest fall in the past 20 years or so? Luke

Hi, Does anyone know weather Liverpool got lying snow cover during the December 2005 spell I was looking at the weather archives for Liverpool Airport and snow is recorded as falling on December 29th with a maximum temperature of 0 degrees and a low of -6 which might imply at least some snow cover. And also did we get falling/lying snow in December 2004 which brought some places a white Christmas I think I do remember a Christmas day with snow on the ground but was it then? Luke

Hi, Does anyone on here really think that a mild or even exceptionally mild February is likely or very likely? One thing you have got to take into consideration is that February in this country at least is often the coldest (and of course snowiest!) month of the winter and is often the time of year that has the Atlantic at its weakest. For example looking at that other cold/severe winters of the past most of them seemed to have a cold or very cold February (or a cold spell for at least part of February) for example 1962/63, 1946/47, 1978/79, 1985, 1986, 1990/1991 and 1995/96 and of course last winter, 2008/09. The main exception to this seems to be 1981/82 and possibly 1996/97 and 2001/02. So statistically speaking from purely looking at data from past winters it would seem that a colder than average February (or at least a February which includes a significant cold spell) would be more likely than not. And of course even if we did get a mild February we could always have the possibility of a cold and snowy March, for example March in many years is often snowier than December! We had one of our biggest snowfalls of the 2000s decade in March in Liverpool (March 2006) - and I have read that the charts for much of January 2006 where poor from a cold weather perspective! so that is one of the reasons why I get frustrated at posts that seem to imply that it is game over as far as cold weather is concerned when we are still in mid January - please tell me what your thoughts are. Also regarding Glacier Point saying that a mild or even very February is likely from teleconnection signals is it true that he predicts a settled spell with HP just to the south of the UK with mild days but cold (and frosty!) nights would be more likely than raging zonality, would we be looking at a setup similar too February 2008 or late March 2009? Luke

Hi, But wasn't the very severe winter of 1947 followed by a decent summer? Just goes to show that a cold winter doesn't always mean a poor summer! Luke

Hi, Do you think there is a possibility that some of us, at least the the south of the region (like where I am in Liverpool) could get something out of tomorrow nights snow event? I have seen the GFS 12z precipitation chart and it seems to have the main band of precipitation reaching the southern parts of the North West, so providing things like dew points are ok is thier a possibility of some renewed snowfall Tuesday into Wednesday, and if that is the case how much could we expect and when could we expect it to fall? Luke

Hi, Do you think this year could resemble a less severe version of 1947 as an El Nino year (was 1947 an El Nino Year)? And if that is the case could that bode well for our summer as I believe the severe winter of 1947 was followed by a good summer (was that the case, can anyone correct me on that?) and if that is the case would a summer more similar to 2006 or 2003 (or 1995?) be more likely than on like the last three? Also, considering that fact that in El Nino years the latter part of the winter is often colder (for example in 1947 the brunt of the severe cold spell came in February) and the fact that February (and early March) are often the most blocked period of the winter (and not forgetting the possibility of a stratospheric warming event too!), could it be the case, rather than the milder February that some are predicting, that February actually turns out to be the coldest month of this winter with the cold and snow persisting into March? (Also remember even the likes of 1947 and 1963 had milder interludes) And if that did occur could it mean that this winter could then rival the likes of 1963? Be interesting to here your thoughts? Luke

Hi, What can we expect for tomorrow weatherwise is the sky going to clear to allow what we have on the ground to refreeze and will it be a clear day or a cloudy day with snow showers around for tomorrow? Also I have noticed that today some people on this forum have been acting as if the cold spell is over and the breakdown has arrived that is odd as I though the breakdown was not due to come until around the end of next week at the earliest I wonder why this is it is still cold and expected to say cold until at least Friday, and the latest GFS suggest that ice days are still likely for some this week is that true? Luke

Hi, Could we expect to see a classic breakdown type event this week along similar lines to February 1996? I have read some posts claiming that some of next weeks charts (I think UKMO) show a similar situation to what happened then? I have read some posts on here suggesting that we could experience an even bigger snowfall than we have currently had this week, I think on Tuesday on Wednesday from a low pressure system from the South West? Yes, I know it may be marginal but somebody said that the March 2006 event was even more marginal than many of the so called marginal events that we had in this spell? And was it true that for the 1996 event wasn't this forecast to be rain initially with the mild air winning but the forecast was changed at short notice to heavy snow from the stalling front? So is such an event still a possibility in the coming week then? Luke

Hi, I am curious to what -20C and below feels like if your outside at this temperature. Yes I know it will feel cold but, not taking into account the wind chill factor and assuming that the air is still and calm will it feel any different from just below freezing i.e. say about -2 degrees C. Also I have heard that tears on your face can freeze at these temperatures, is that true? And what does it feel like to the exposed skin (again assuming no wind). Are there any other strange things that start to happen at this temperatures, for example can diesel freeze? I would like to here from people who have experienced it and what it was like? Luke