Cumulonimbus Tower

Spending the weekend camping at (and playing at) a festival in the Ribble valley this weekend with 2 smallish kids and my partner. Just wondering how bad this storm system is going to be there? It looks to me like it will be fairly wet from mid morning to late afternoon on Sat with rain at 30mm per hour for a short time (is this about right?) but i guess if its dry either side it might not make too much difference? Thoughts please?? Thanks

Judging by the mood in here tonight i'd have thought there was a blowtorch Bartlett showing up and everything was lost... Looking at the latest from Exeter i'd say all to play for personally.

Just been up the tops after school. Sleet and Hail down in the valley but thick snow on the top. Hebden Bridge to Keighley road was virtually blocked with busses and cars playing silly b****** and not letting each other pass. Hope theres a bit more to come this eve.....

I think what we are seeing from the models at the moment is a very finely balanced position where the BI is of the boundary between the colder air to the East and the relatively milder stuff coming in off the Atlantic. That said, some of the Polar Maritime air approaching from the west looks cold enough for winteryness at times over elevated areas. I think the models will keep correcting back and forth and we shall not really know the outcome until it happens. I would be very surprised though if some areas don't see a bit of snow from the end of next weekend onward. There is always the chance that it will all be corrected West again leaving most in the colder air but only time will tell. I'm fairly intrigued at the moment tbh. and aint letting my mood go up and down with every run. Have some faith in the pattern you see!

The BI seems to be getting squeezed from the NW and from the NE by 15 850hPa air around that timeframe too. You get the feeling that something has to give and we will get some winteryness from one side or'tother. My feeling is that this cold spell isn't quite as dead as it seemed yesterday......

Or even worse, posting on Facebook. Looks like we'll have to wait until we see the effects of any further warming to propergate through to the model output. Could be nearer the month end i am led to believe?

Is the jet just digging too far south on much of the 12z output?

I think gfs is what happens when the jet takes a dive to North Africa! It seems that the models have picked up a new signal overnight, which could be the jet dropping further south than previously thought. Seems that there is nothing left to prop the Scandi High or Med Low up with the pressure of the jet removed. Whatever it is, I think they all react to it in slightly different ways and the GFS is just one very extreme way to react. I'd give them 24 hours to settle down a bit and see where were are left then. From experience It might not turn out as bad as it currently seems.

I realise that but i'm talking about the general evolution in this instance.

So, after an eternal amount of huffing and puffing the GFS finally advects some cold uppers west out of Europe for around 6 hours before the whole lot crashes and burns again. It's my opinion that when gfs gets into the low res part of the run it can't handle the setup properly so goes off the rails somewhat. I also can't help feeling that the sort of evolution that the GFS is showing today (up to around t200) might just be the final outcome (or a take on it anyway) m sure it will have subtle differences with heights east/west/north/south by the odd 1000 miles but the general evolution looks about right to me.....

It gets silly once it goes in to the low res part of the run but i've seen enough to be happier again

The question is, can we get an undercut out of this GFS? Don't know too much about jet profiles but it seems to be heading deep South and East around 180h

GFS 6z seems to have ther WAA aligned slightly more favourably for building heights to the NE. Wonder if this might be a slightly better run for coldies than the 00z..... In fact it's looking remarkably like the GEM at 144 and not too dissimilar to the ECM.....

Interesting to see the GEM now getting it's heights from an atlantic ridge moving out of the western Atlantic from 120h. Very possibly what the UKMO would have been onto if it went out further.....

I would imagine it might be because the GFS has changed in it's position to a more meridional flow relative to previous output, which Steve has been predicting through many of his nuanced analysis of model output over the last several days.

Hmmm. it doesn't encourage much optomism this eve does it? All i can clutch out of that one is perhaps there are high pressure reinforcememnts heading across the atlantic from Bermuda.

Jet streak heading due north to the west of Ireland on the 12z helping to inflate the HP to the North East of the BI, as opposed to curving East over the top of Scotland and flattening out the pattern previously. This could well be the GFS climb down that has been so much anticipated! ...and is that hints of a trigger Low at 156 heading into Europe? Maybe too much to ask for in one run

Or Chocolat Fire Surround

Interestingly has -5 850hPa air flirting with the north west of the UK by next fri/sat though.....

The 06 gfs was a step away from the 00 gfs zonal express and the 12 gfs looks to be a further step away from an atlantic driven 06h gfs. It will be interesting to see where we are left after the other output this eve but i suspect it won't be as zonal and mild as we were this morning....

06 gfs looks to be running out of puff as it crosses the atlantic compared to the 00z. Whilst it's obviously a depressing morning for coldies, I still don't think this has run it's full course yet. Not if the GFS is still chopping and changing its mind at such short timescales and some of the lesser models (And bigger models to a lesser degree) still fancy a chance. Watch this space I strongly concur with what TEITS says about fickle Easterlies too. Over the last eight years or so there seems to be a recurring theme, of them vanishing overnight to re-appear a couple of runs later.