Cumulonimbus Tower

Could i just ask, has anyone noticed that on Meteociel, the UKMO charts for 12 today seem to be different from those on Wetter? I suspectt they havn't updated but the time signature looks ok. Just confusing the heck out of me after 1.5 cans of stella

Since getting over the pleasure of seeing the ECM this evening, I have been looking at it's output side by side with the other 3 models which imo support the evolution tionight. The UKMO seems even better to my untrained eye (Agree Cooling Climate, just seen your post) with, as previously mentioned the JMA and GEM coming on board. I hope (And now slightly expect) that the too progressive GFS will have to come onboard over the nexy 12 to 24 hours. Roll on the 18z 's and more particulally the UKMO 18. Good call Steve M, Nick S & Et al. Could we be about to see winter in the isles for the first time?

Can i just ask if any flash warnings of severe weather have been issued regarding the precip moving in over Mersyside atm? My missis is at the Trafford centre and i was going to advise her to leave it a couple of hours before travelling along the M62. thanks

Well it will be interesting to compare the track of the minor feature tomorrow with the predicted NAE and Euro4 tracks as they have a signifigant diference between them. Less shower activity for the coasts shown on Euro4 too i think....

Wondering if what the UKMO hints at today is what Steve M was alluding too yesterday when he posted this http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013121212/gfsnh-0-144.png?12

Are you still looking towards the illusive rise in heights over Scandinavia there Steve?

So is the GEM not particulaly facvoured because it is the wrong set up or because its evolution is just too fast? I thought i read that high pressure to the North/East was a favoured solution by the met yesterday (EC 32 solution too) although this was around day 15? Sorry if i picked the wrong end of the stick up somehow.

The 12z ECM has shifted the idea of a Scandy/Russian high a bit further East than some earlier modelling. I wouldn't say that the idea is dead in the water as this kind of feature is notoriously difficult to model but again, it isn't looking like a firm favourite either. I'm glad there is some support for the idea from a couple of the smaller models this evening otherwise i think i would have given up on the idea personally. Worth keeping an eye on IMHO but lets avoid getting hung up on a need for immediate freezing conditions. Lets also avoid writing off winter for the moment as well can we I do find what the GFS is showing this evening very boring indeed, however, there is a long way to go and quite often things happen from seemingly nowhere at a fairly quick rate of knots.

METO 144 looking full of Northern Promise too. Well maybe not exactly Northern but i like the look of it non the less....

Sorry to be off topic but i think the lack of posts may be to do with the masses of snow piing up outside this evening rather than the search into deepest FI-land for more..... UKMO looks like it may be onto something at 144 btw. It's been quite good of late hasn't it? Ned

Looking like theres a patch of ppn growing around Manchester as the wrap around from the low pressure tries to push north East. I'll be watching this as i think it's my only hope of any more snow tonight you could have greeted my 1000th post with a little bit more enthusiasm

Whilst the development of a low pressure system over the Irish Sea, holding up the Eastwards advancement of the front tomorrow does undoubtedly mean some areas won't see as much of the white stuff as previously hoped, looking at the NAE in more detail I do wonder if the development of this system will actually mean that the precipitation lasts longer across some areas, particularly the North East, where as it was going to die out fairly readily previously, the Easterly wind looks to pick up and I can see tomorrow night turning into quite a raw, blowy and snowy picture across large swathes of the BI. And lets be fair, it is possible that wider areas of the Irish Republic will get a bit of snow too, which seems only fair!

The thing that strikes me most about the ECm 192h chart. Thats the one for over a week away is that the atlantis still looks like it has just run out of steam and can offer no meaningful attack on the cold block established over NW Europe....

I'm no expert but my understanding is that the jet over the Atlantic looses all its energy because it is not supported at higher altitude because of the Stratospheric warmings we have/are recently experiencing. Whilst it looks the same, the energy 'attacking' us isn't the same so the troughs disrupt instead of barreling over us... However by posting on here im sure I'm leaving this open for a better interpretation..... .

Definite pivot to the front now over Lincolnshire. Wonder if those heafty showers in the North Sea will come ashore once the Easterly sets in later.....

Is that so? What model is the ARPEGE and where can one see it please? On another note, the precip band looks to be pivoting over Northumbria at the moment. I wonder if this might bring some snow back west later this eve? Cheers

Well, we only need to get to 3.30/4 pm and it might start to freeze! Would be fun then as my house is on the steepest cul-de-sac in western Europe!

Conflicting reports from Saddleworth there then I'm just wondering when they are going to decide to send the kids home from school as I'm sure that as soon as they do that it will stop or turn to rain......

GFS Seems to have firmed up nicely on giving a snowy and generally cold week for many. The mild attacks seems to have been squeezed although anyone on the western side of the BI will be thrown into the mild air for half a day or two according to the GFS. sitting half way up the Pennines I hope to be looking at a gloriously snowy week, although the thing that gets me is that I can NEVER remember getting a half decent cold spell without ANY major mid level, never mind high level, blocking in place. Can this be possible? Has it happened previously? Wax off the ski's dudes Pa thought bi polar British isles ment it gets very cold twice in one week. Ha ha ha (see Rory o Gorman post)