Cumulonimbus Tower

I have seen much worse for cold at this time of year over many of the last 20 years or so. You don't have a long southerly fetch and heights are rising over Greenland instead of the core of the polar vortex centred there driving the weather. I don't see a block as such on todays charts either, just a cold Scandinavian trough which keeps throwing cold air westwards as the shortwaves track across us (weakening every time, from what they start out as on the models) We have a nice covering of snow now and expect more tomorrow so i can live with a week or two of this sort of a pattern

Another take on what happened to Olga http://www.colinandrews.net/HAARP-3.html

In a word - Yes. It will never come off though :lol:

On the subject of the models, if thats ok, i wonder how resolved the coming week actually is looking at the way the GEM seems to want to go this evening. Could there still be the odd twist to the saga? ECM looks to want to "slide one under" early doors too

4.2 please

Yup, the GFS is being very bullish with regards to the cold not going anywhere fast with only a brief 24h less cold spell and very cold easterly by next Frifday as it slides any Atlantic influence under the block. 156h is a thing of beauty to me

Yup, remember it well.... T'was the eve that the models decided to ignore the influance of the northern arm of the jet no???

Much respect for sticking to your guns over this one GP. I shall be following developments with interest :lol:

There seems to be quite a consensus from both the ECM and GEM at around 144 of sending less energy into the northern arm of the jet. I would think this bodes well for any cold spell.

18z to me looks like a long wave pattern shift with the trough dropping into Scandi for a time and the non too robust block slipping west :lol: Nothing wierd about that evolution given the supporting signals of late And then there's Feb

I was really looking at the 12z ECM compared with the 00 ECM and commenting that they were similar evolutions. The 12z aint much worse than the 00 imo. I can only view the 12z GEM out to 144h but to me the difference is basically the block further west which might actually bode well in the long run.

ECM 12z looks very much like its 00z to me. Nothing much has changed then except for one or two of the cannon fodder models coming on board

Can't open your first two links so not sure where youe sweet spot is, but what i will say is that the most recent NAE and METO precip charts have shunted the precip further north east by about 50-100 miles... If this happened again on the 00z then Bradford council wouldn't be too far off the mark

Whilst i fully accept that the snow risk for tonight and tomorrow has all but gone For My Back Yard and this is backed up by the latest message to Lancashire NHS workers today - Subject: Snow risk Wednesday - Met Office update "24 hours on and the prospects for any disruptive snow across the region tomorrow have diminshed to virtually zero with the weather system responsible now expected to stall further west than originally predicted, before sliding away SE'wards. Yesterday's Advisory update had restricted the threat to Cheshire but the latest forecast, whilst still hinting at a little patchy rain/sleet/wet snow possibly getting into Western Cheshire and even parts of Merseyside at the back end of tonight and into tomorrow morning, is playing down the risk even further with no accumulations now expected in these areas. Hence it should be business as usual across the NW tomorrow with most areas staying dry altogether. Still on for a good swathe of rain to cross all areas during Thursday evening and Thursday night. Will update you only if the forecast changes markedly," What i don't get is why Bradford Met Council are this evening out throwing grit around on the roads like confetti at a film stars wedding and on who's say so? Surly they would be better off saving it for early next week :lol:

Yes, along comes the ECM with other ideas... Thankfully.... Maybe quieten the doom and gloom mongers a little