Cumulonimbus Tower

Cool, thanks for clarifying that. Makes more sense. I do think there is a tendancy for people to look at them and think "wow, whapping big HP" etc.

I can't help but feel, and this is purely feeling rather than science, that the anomaly charts seem to make much more of blocks than actually seem to materialise. My guess is that if we lookes at one for this weekend generated on the 4th or so, it would have large HP over iceland and beyond where as the heights are reasanably modest and intersperced with shortwaves fro mtime to time...

I kind of know where he is coming from. Things do seem a little finely balanced at times as it looks like the Atlantic wants to follow the second shortwave through about 96-120 and if this happened the block could be flattened and things could go wrong. This run seems closer to this scenario than either of the last three runs and the sense is that it has been getting nearer to this scenario for the last couple of runs. I'm not saying that this will happen but I am trying to give some measure to other points of view about where things 'may' go or could go wrong for coldies. Don't taze me dude!

PHEW! ECM holds it's nerve. Expect the 18z to fall in line then..... If only it were that straight forward

ECM seems to have pressure building behind the SW near Iceland which to me is the key as opposed to it flattening out the pressure in the Atlantic and going the way of earlier GFS' Saying that, there is further pressure on the block at 120h. Time to squint and close one eye.....

GEM is still the 00z on wetter, or at least it is as i write this.....

I was looking at the GFS and thinking something similar myself. Whilst it still goes woefully wrong it certainly does it in a less dramatic way than this morning, so you could view it as starting to come back on board as opposed to standing firm with a new idea. I'm trying to keep positive and the METO chart certainly has helped but tonights ECM feels crucial now and i shall be watching it from behind the sofa, pack of prozac in one hand and bottle of Johnny Walkers in the other

Even if things got a bit milder next week I don't think we are looking at the empty bucket scenario of December as the strat warming has had a massive effect or soon will and that isn't just going to disappear overnight. I don't think the GFS 06 is right but if it is in as far as the first bite is only brief, I honestly don't see us waiting around again for weeks for further cold outbreaks to show up.

If the shortwave north of Iceland follows it's precvious track at 168 it could deliver quite a bit of snow to somewhere as it squeezes between the two High cells, if there's enough cold air about still.... Spoke too soon, theres too much pressure on the block and it flattens it instead. Oh well. Just another possibility i guess.. Baaa Humbug!

Yes Dave, some very cold air into Lincs by 120h and heights building nicely in the mid Atlantiic, even compared to the 00 ECM

Looking at the bigger picture, there seems to be quite a lot of warm air being advected north in the mid Atlantic around the 168h mark on the GFS. Could this have the effect of blowing up a block, like a baloon, in the north-mid Atlantic/Greenland/Iceland further down the line? Also, a bit on the dry side but one of the better looking METO charts at 120/144 i've seen of late!

There looks to be an awful lot of colder solutions deep in the reaches of FI

Personally I don't know what all the fuss is about. The models are still trying to get to grips with a warming event, which incidentally is only starting to happen now. The 12z GFS op seems to have dropped the ball with regards to the second warming which has been forecast and allows the PV to re-establish itself after a week or so of fluctuation. Why it has dropped the second warming is anybody's guess but following individual runs or even individual ensemble groups is best avoided when there is so much instability in the atmosphere. Has the second warming been cancelled or is the GFS just having an inter run wobble? I know what my money is on.

I agree. I must admit that I didn't really see anything to get excited about for the last couple of weeks but all of a sudden my ears have pricked up a little looking at the 12z from today. If things were to pan out like they might it could be quite a good week next week for being half way up a hill in the North West of the BI. There is always the danger that shortwave armageddon could spoin the party a little but hopefully the cold uppers will be spilling south that they swams any little systems coming over us and also squeeze down between the systems to give a right good old fashioned wintery week - from the north west.

Hi Dave, Going by the old Met Mans post lsast night and looking at the GEM I might be inclined to agree with you. I don't think that the pattern later this week will hang around for long, it just doesn't have that feel about it and with the jet and current atlantic attack driving deep south east into Europe I see it might just be a matter of time before we get depressions pushing east over France or southern most counties. time will tell i suppose....

And, for the most part we are simply enthusiastic armatures doing this because of our over enthusiastic love of certain synoptics rather than fulfilling contracts or delivering SLA's.I think the ECM is getting there in the end.Just a little slower than the 00 version. In fact the 12z ECM has more of a traditional/realistic 'Scandi High influence in the UK' look about it....

GFS 12z seems to have a nice little low running up the western side of Greenlland around 168h. Way into FI but nice to see modelled non the less....

I had a glimps at the charts at 5am as I'm laid up with manflu suffering a temperature and thought "ey up there's going to be some toys spat out of prams by the look of those charts" Fortunatly everybody seems to have taken them pretty much at face value so far though. Whilst not as spectacularly pleasing as some of yesterday evenings snow fest charts, it looks pretty much 'as you we're with regard to us getting a pretty decent cold/cool spell of some significance. I actually prefer today's ECM as the Azores/arctic link up doesn't seem as tenuous which was worrying me somewhat yesterday eve. Play nicely now everybody! Cheers for all your great input...... Ned

Getting into the area where flooding started to occur last time. Still going up and faster than earlier in the day.... http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/riverlevels/120699.aspx?stationId=8097

Looking at Environment Agency website 'Douglas at Parbold' looks about at bursting point, if thats anywhere around there?

Any thoughts on whether Hebden B will get clear of the rain band this eve or will we be caught by the pivot? If the latter is the case I would certainly think we will be under water by morning.

Hebden Bridge contingent here. Rivers been rising all day. Wonder what time the CalderValley flood warning will sound? My guess is midnight if this current hewvy rain persists. Look North camera crews already in place in the town centre. Glad i live on the hill on evenings like this!

The end of the ECM seems to show the PV lifting right out of Greenland and Baffin. This could be a great signal further down the line...... if the ECM at 216 could be believed

NOGAPS is a thing of beauty (to my untrained eye) tonight (For cold fans) and if the ECM follows it to only half the degree it did this morning then they will be shouting Blizzards from the rooftops by 7 pm this evening

It seems that many on here are looking at FI as if it is something that is going to happen. FI is just that, Fantasy Island, and should be regarded as such. It can be usefull for looking for trends but looking deep into FI on every run of the GFS expecting to be able to tell what the weather will be is a non starter. It will also lead to mood swings like no others! Look for the bigger picture in anything past 5-7 days and chill out a bit ;-) The latest GFS still has the trough moving east across the atlantic at the end of next week and that is as far as i think i am going to bother with for now.... Now, where did i put those tea leaves.....