Cumulonimbus Tower

Interesting to see the NAE has the colder air undercutting the rain over Ireland on Tuesday noon. I wonder if some upland areas in the UK might have a few flurries before it clears?

To be fair I think it is a matter of perspective and location. I had to get a set of winter tyres fitted for going over the moor to my little boys nursery last week as on about four different occasions the road was treacherous due to snow and ice and by the look of the charts it should be quite wintry on Tuesday night, Wednesday, early Thursday and again on Sunday if the charts verify. So whilst not a mega cold spell to compare to last December it’s certainly been a lot better than some years of daily double digits and no snow for even the Cairngorms. I think some doom mongers on here have forgotten how bad things can actually get in this country. Happy Christmas

I'm not one to go on about Scandi High's and beasterlies but my feeling is at the moment that it should be Scandi and Russia that we should be looking towards for a pattern changer. I think that there will remain too much pressure exerted on the Greenland ridge by the PV for now and deep into FI there are sighns of pressure rising to the NE and i think that it is this which will become more prevalent in the days to come.

First Shower just skirting to the south of you then Backtrack?

Any precipitation reports yet from these showers just starting to make landfall around Barrow, Liverpool n Morcambe? EDIT - Sorry Chris R - just missed your post! Thats a good sign then, winteryness so close to the Irish Sea!

Evening all. So are we looking at the trough moving NW to SE over Ulster at the moment for any precipitation later tonight and into tomorrow? Do we think it wil fizzle out as it moves East or make it to these parts?

Yup, i reckon somewhere with a bit of altitude will get caught out tonight. Wonder if the snake pass will be open in the morn?

Not sure i get you? Friday morning looking pretty white on the NAE over this way :unsure:

It was icy at 5.30 pm here. I drove back to Hebden Bridge from Brighouse through Queensbery and Oxenhope and it was white over on the tops. Quite tricky to drive. Temp was hovering about 0 degrees about 1,400 feet. Wonder if we'll get clipped by this depression tonight and if it's cold enough sor some snow out of it if it does? My heart says yes but my head says No Snow....

So where do people think the lowest overnight tempriture is going to be tonight and how cold? I'll start with; Tulloch Bridge -1.1

What a fantastic satelite picture there cookie! Where does it come from?

Anyone know of any online resources plotting the spread of the radiation from Fukushima or even any projected spread model output out there in cyberspace? Bit macabre i know, sorry, just something we are doing at school as part of my current teacher training project placement... Thanks

Thanks John, another very informative post weighted just right for the semi novice like myself

Great thread GP, Thank you. Credit where it's due too, you were the one talking about energy being thrown west into Europe, due to current global zonal wind data etc., some 48 hours ago were you not? Bravo Ned

Does anyone give any credence to this report in which it suggests that the gulf stream is being affected by the oil in the gulf of Mexico? http://www.rense.com/general91/OilSpill-CNR.pdf oes anyone know of any further research into this or an up to date viewpoint? Thanks Ned

93L looks a good bet to develop imho. I wonder what damage it could do to the mess in the gulf

5.7 please

The NAE has shifted the whole lot north west by about 60 miles a run for the last 12 hours. The sweet spot seems to be right over me by this time tomorrow but i am not counting on it being the final position...back south by about 40 miles i would say

Looking at the models we still have a period of uncertainty to contend with... (brings out the chocolate and cookies) Oh my god, i think i'm turning into.... The models are starting to show the possibility of further cold outbrakes towards the end of next week and i for one do not think that mid feb is the end of winter....

GFS is following the ECM of earlier, bringing colder air in from the north (West/East) before this time next week and also setting up a cut off low towards the mid atlantic. For all of you with model fatigue out there, i think we are uncovering the next part of the plot Not exactly the same by 180 admittedly, but hey....

Well at least this evenings ECM and NOGAPS show that there is a cold way out of next weeks set up. Whether it is just a blip or a new trend remains to be seen. In the later frames of the ECM it almost seems like the west based pattern has become so west base we become under the influance of the Scandi trough while the low pressure progged over us drifts out to the mid atlantic not really bothering us.... If you know what i mean....

NOGAPS seems to go off to somewhere interesting longer term... I'm backing the ECM to follow that

so does the ECM In fact the ECM looks kind of believable atm....

Does it have to be at night or in the day???

Maybe members should in fact consider a pattern in the model output.... Last nights 18z GFS went the same way as tonights. With the ECM and UKMET following it, only for it to strengthen the whole set up over the course of today in favour of the cold option, and the other two big players to do the same in their later output. So we are back to square one.... I bet the ECM and MET have the high ove rus tomorrow morning with lotws of toys out of prams etc, only for everything to be back on track by 8 pm tomorrow eve!