Winter Monsoon

Looking at the 06z there's snow potential for the southern part of the North West (manchester) area with Tuesday looking good.... ok im following the GFS PPN chart but its a start.

Any one seen the 06z? Tonight and then starting sunday night and all the way through the week theres potential. Admittadly im looking t the GFS PPN and surface conditions but they all show that for at least the southern half of the region theres snow pratically everyday. Am i reading that wrong....does the blue on PPN mean dry?? :lol:

I really hope your right. With my limited knowledge all i have seen is constant downgrading this month especially with this current event. And i would have thought we would have to be very lucky to get FI into the reliable without downgrading along the way. When things look to be going right for us the uk always seem to end up on the wrong side, aside from the occasional lucky strikes. FI looking good at the mo but lets see if it continues....perhaps a small westward shift would be better?? Fingers crossed its a new trend/signal that doesnt go the way of the pear as it moves towards +96.

Gah..... well thats a downgrade it was marginal top begin with yesterday and the models have continued with that theme. Just like the easterly that didnt materialise now this even has been downgraded. Not that cold either. Looks like rain for the most and the lucky few will get snow up here in the north but with temps like these its gonna be gone within the day. Oh well i think maybe this was our last chance this winter next month heralds spring. Itll probably be too warm by then to have lasting/lying snow

Thanks for the reply Nick F. LOL no sooner do i say i think its marginal the 06z pops out with alot bettre run not just for the North West but most of the country too. Mon,Tues and Weds looking good for IMBY. Hopefully the models will continue and upgrade the closer we get.

I think its marginal for next week up here in the north west. Looks to me that the low is dragging in warmer air but thats my inexperienced opinion. Even if it does snow it doesnt look like it would stick either. Of course im probably wrong and if i am can someone explain to me why. Does the GFS over do the temps i.e does it end up being colder than what the GFS shows?

Just read Chino's post and it doesnt taly with what you have suggested will happen. It would seem that theres nothing to stop the westward movement?? Im no expert but thats the feeling i got fromt he post. So northern areas are looking good for next week. Its funny but this whole easterly/northerly has been downgrading ever since it appeared. With 18 days left of this month will this be the last hurrar of winter? My gut feeling is that after this brief not so cold, cold period spring will be upon us. The sun is projected to wake up from its slumber according to the beeb today so we possibly may not see a winter like this for some time to come. Of course im really hoping that the models are having a laugh on us and will switch and we see the mother of all northerly/eaterly, i can but dream.

Well just been in mdoel thread adn half are saying latest ECM is good and Half saying not, so confusing. Its funny but when the models are in disagreement this forum is in agreement with each other but when the models start to agree this forum goes the other way.<br>

High im still learning the models but i see alot of people talking about east and north east etc etc. My question is to the more experienced...or anyone who cares to answer lol. If this does verify will there be snow for the west/north west?? will it be heavy?? Sorry i know this is strictly model related but it is in a way as its to do with the current output. Just i know alot will read in here and just hoping that some one can give me a quick answer. Thanks

Ok so my post gets Moved But Jh's one liner not model related post stays??? Hmm

So the models have flipped again?? And we have learnt what? Still peeps are posting +144 charts when we know +96 isnt that reliable either. And 1st sign of south westerlies at +144 and its Game set and Match....and thats for deffinate is it. So the models wont switch back now.....for sure? Im not bothering beyong 72hrs wots the point. I cant see the logic in these posts +144 is way off in never never land and yet its seems to be set in stone when its atlantic based but when its showing the usual synoptic for a Febuary its FI and should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Cant beat a few hundred thousand years of evolution really in regards to the seagulls. I bet they are more accurate than we are. Just like dogs and cats going nuts before thunderstorms arrive or earthquakes. Look at how geese migrate...no maps no compass no Gps and yet time after time they get to the same place every year. This winter i have seen more migrating birds than the last 10 years. I know its not model related but there are truths in what TEITS suggests. So if the 12z comes up with similar output to the 06z can we start to get excited? Crikey that got moved quick...sorry mods

I have found GP and CH to be most informative. Back last year when i was lurking and not registered GP was pretty much spot on and this year he's been uncannily accurate. He mention in november that a cold spell was comming in december..... dont get me wrong everyone on here has taught me alot but to be able to predict a cold spell in november for nerly a month away?? So i have learnt, read the tech discussion thread and the strat thread then look at the models. If it doesnt fit with GP's, CH's or Bricks excellently thought out posts(even i can understand the jist so they must be good posts) then it probably isnt going to happen. Anyway interesting outputs the past few days. Personally would like the Siberian high to edge this way more, it would probably end up with some settled fine weather but least it will be cold.

You know its been a real joy to have our old proper winter friend. Its been 40+ years since we last him round. It will be a sad day when our friend has to leave. When we do say our final goodbye, after our final hug and embrace of cold, it will be with a tear that i wave goodbye, for deep down i fear, that i will not see our friend again..... for another 40 year. And so it will be that 2010 was a very good year. Heres to the memories and the times we have had.

Yes i am new here and to be honest john has been a very good read i have learnt alot of him. Also you i have learnt alot of you and yes you have been spot on with the easterlies. Im not asking for region by region forcasts, however there has to be some kind of balance to posts. So im not going to continue with this. I will appologise though for my earlier out burst TEITS.

Omg bit harsh. I havent been around here that much as im pretty new but what i have noticed is John does seem to be more....realistic and grounded.... However you have at times been the most biased posters on here. Not wishing to start an argument but i feel that the above wasnt called for. And seeing as you speaking your mind ILL speak mine. Im still waiting for your forcast using your own personal methods that you have used since you were 10 that has never let you down, you posted this earlier today at 11:26am I would assume an easterly will appear in your forcast as it pretty much does every time. Im also going to assume that your forcast will be localised to your area as it pretty much does most of the time. Just because a member wishes for a more scientific approach to some of the posts on here which im assuming your personal weather predicting methods that you have used are not....doesnt mean that you should post the above. In fact if you had that much of a problem with John theres such a thing as a PM and not saying stuff like that in this forum and then try and justify that statement accusing said member of possibly driving new member like myself away or prevent them from posting when its posts like yours that do the most damage. Im sorry but it ticks me off when people deem fit to do the washing in public. After all i have been on the net for a very very very long time and have seen what things like this can lead too. So rant over. Sorry if this lowers the mood but hey.

Just cut and pasted this fromt he mdoel tech thread where GP has just posted this:- Suggest a Euro High solution and this seems to be where the long range modelling is going. Whether the MJO and stratospheric warming can modify this towards month's end and force height rises to our NW and lowering heights over Iberia is a watching brief. This also gives us some clues as to how the medium term pattern (mid January onwards) might evolve. This would tend to support the idea that the block forming over Scandnavia is going to become a dominant feature and repel the Atlantic weather fronts extending across the UK which would allow colder continental air to creep back across the UK, south-eastern parts most particularly. Perhaps the Meto are thinking along the same lines??

Well been getting snizzle/snow mix. Problem is i think its melting my sow cover

After reading the strat thread and model tech thread i would urge those who thinks the game is over to read those tyhreads and py attention to what the like of GP, CH and Brick f post. If what they say verifies then this is just an interlude which to be honest was being said by those i have mentioned since at least christmas. You just cannot ignore what the upper atmosphere is doing at the moment, it will and does effect the model output. Gp has already warned the the model performnce is likley to drop over the next few days. There are signs of an SSW and another split vortex. Incidently the vortex has split twice this winter already and isnt it coincidental that when the split occurs we ended up with cold and snowy weather. Yes its going to be warmer than of late, i for one am not looking forwards to it. If it were upto me we would have this winter weather all winter. Looking at the end of the ECM run, maybe, just maybe we get a reload and some of my sig will come true.

Oh dear bit of a thaw going on since the light snow started falling. Comming off the roof pretty quickly

Not thawed much hear and im not that far from you. Model showing ppn getting further east, However the question remains will it remain as snow or turn to rain?

Few very light flakes. Nothing major but the radar showing the ppn pepping up abit so still hope. Tues/Weds looking good.

Probably yes i would have though if you look at that radar on raintoday you can see those showers really pushing into your area. Its probably going to be a hit and miss affair i would have though but you may see a few. Regarding the eventual break down...when it happens. If its an attak fromt he SW would we here in the north west get some of it? Thoughts on the model thread is that its going to take more than 1 attempt.

Ello peeps just thought i would bob in here and see how your all doing. Got aorund 20cm lying snow here up north...well manchester. Looking at http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=gb&sat=ir&type=loop looks like the low is starting to shift west or south west along the south coast. I maybe wrong here but as that happens with the rotation of the low the south coudl be in for prolonged snow fall today. Stay safe and dont forget to get some piccies!!!!

Got about 20cm lying snow here. Really hope some of them showers of the east coast get pushed far enough this way. I would say that this event has delivered more snow depth than the 82 event(i think it was 82) mind you i wasnt measuring depths back then