Cheshire Freeze

Actually, N Atlantic blocking as shown above is exactly what I want to see. There is a historic correlation between this blocking in September and N blocking during winter.

I think you're being very generous calling that convection. Shallow convection at best.

A lovely, fresh 17C here today. Miles better than the heat of yesterday. Roll on autumn proper!

Yeah... 'New data'? How much new data can you have after 33 years?

Unfortunately (and it's nothing but experience talking here), when long range modelling converges on a mild outlook, a mild outlook is what we tend to get. Models tend to do very well modelling zonal driven regimes and there is usually only small margins of error in the output. If there was large variability between the main long range forecasting tools and the opinions of the pros then you could argue that attempting to forecast the upcoming winter is futile...however there isn't and I think it's a fairly straight forward call this year sadly.

This is something that Gavin P has touched upon in one of his videos (last year I think it was). It was historically the case that N Atlantic/Greenland blocking during autumn is allied to a heightened chance of this repeating during the winter.

It's not solely about the conditions in September though per se. It's setting it in context to the mumblings I'm hearing from the pros and the likes of the GLOSEA and CFS output. When you assemble it all together it's grim looking.

Those two models are in complete and utter agreement...right down to the finer details of pressure placement. It really doesn't bode well at all IMO and they would both promote the chance of a record warm winter month occurring. I would be really quite happy to be proved wrong though!

Maybe so Kev, but it seems to me that from memory recent Septembers have featured a dry, settled spell at some point after a changeable summer. I really think we may see at least one month this winter break a temperature record (and not for the right reason).

Indeed, I think the winter is relatively straight forward to forecast this year...certainly no cold ramping from me! (see my post above).

To me, the charts are suggestive of it settling down, just in time for September. Happens almost every year and IMO doesn't bode well for the forthcoming winter as this is the same pattern we've been stuck in for the past few years.

Yep, had the same here

GFS was always keen

Hahahahaha oh how I've missed this

OMG bright flash and boom!!!! I'm out of NSC!!!

I can hear thunder coming from somewhere. Lashing it down.

I can't see this December being anything other than predominantly mild and wet. At four month range we have the GLOSEA and CFS virtually identical in their prognosis The prognosis is about as grim as you can get for winter prospects. Put that together with what GP has noted about the likely early winter set up for the N hemisphere, it's a bleak picture. IF we get a colder than average (CET) and snowy December I'll pick one random person who has commented in this thread and paypal them a tenner. If that doesn't tempt a cold December then I don't know what will!

Complete agreement between GLOSEA and CFS now. Extremely similar in their prognosis. Horrid

Yes I noticed that the GFS is quite keen for some convective potential towards the western side of the UK overnight tomorrow.

Indeed. However, I do get the feeling those of us who are of a cold persuasion may not be laughing too much come the end of February. I would certainly not rule out another snowless winter for large swathes of lowland England and Wales.

It actually hasn't been THAT wet here. 2012 was definitely wetter for this neck of the woods.

I've just seen the latest GLOSEA output. I don't think I've seen a worse forecasted set up by a long range model for that time of year...ever. It is brutal stuff. As Don has pointed out, it has backing from other models too unfortunately.

The strangest little downpour has developed right overhead

LOL am I the last one standing in here?? Even Telford has had a storm!

As far as I'm concerned, the weather can do what it wants as August progresses. Summer is on the wane regardless with nights drawing in. It cannot go back to its prime now. It's like Cold showing for mid February when January was mild and wet- as far as I'm concerned, the best of winter would already have passed in that scenario.