Cheshire Freeze

BBC weather showing wind gusts at 61 mph for here at the moment. Should be interesting to see how this one develops.

Yep, my experiences are the same. As I said, that wind direction is a destructive one for these parts.

At face value, if that 12z GFS is close to the mark, I suspect 80 mph would be hit here.

The 12z GFS funnels winds down the Cheshire gap. From experience, when this happens it's about the nastiest wind direction you can get for here and causes all sorts of havoc Even what appears to be a moderate breeze from that direction here can be very gusty

Yep, that was the one. Trees down all over the show too. It was like a constant roar outside, even when you thought you weren't in the midst of the strongest gusts. In the top 10 of my life time weather highlights anyway.

Last time we were well inside an amber warning for wind like this was Feb 2014. Parts of coastal NW England had a red warning for wind. Won't forget that day in a hurry.

Latest GFS run not totally out of the blue given the suggestions of a cold March for a number of weeks now. Also, here was last night's GEFS ensemble mean for pressure anomaly at day 16 Fits in very well with the tail end of the 0z run shown below

It goes into full on muppet mode in FI with disrupting troughing and widespread -8 uppers That run in FI is pretty much March 2013

Bang on cue for first day of meteorological spring GFS wants to usher in winter

Oh hang on, what's this... GFS has started to pick up on that ridge moving out of Canada which can be traced back to day 8. It's enough on this run to initiate something of interest.

Seems to be snowing here properly now, moderate sized flakes

Light snow falling here

Corresponding 850's anomaly Here is the corresponding run from 24 hours ago Note the signal for Greenland warmth and our cold plunge from the NE

The CFS was actually the one model that wasn't interested at all in a high lat blocked December and also it never had February down as being of note in this respect. The only month it flirted with high latitude heights was January. The last time I saw the model so stubborn in its outlook (with a similar recurring anomaly profile) was prior to March 2013. Not saying that will be the case this time...merely pointing it out.

Very good chance that the latter stages of GFS FI and ECM at 240 hours are starting to pick up a signal. The end of Feb into March has been picked up by a few on here for the potential to be of some interest. Meanwhile CFS continues its seemingly ever present March signal... I make that at least a solid month of this model showing the same scenario now (bar the odd run here and there as it runs 4 times a day). I bet the NOAA averaged charts look very tasty Certainly potential.....despite being WB at present

CFS says 'Pah!' Seriously, the way the ECM monthly has behaved this winter, I would take its +ve temperature outlook as a good thing if it's snow/cold you're after.

Was actually just thinking the exact same thing!

Yeah, remember that. Promised a band of snow pushing across only to get some drizzly stuff. I was actually like 'wtf'.

Perfect wedge of heights, perfect trough distribution across mainland Europe- its spatial distribution meaning no warm air intrusion from further SE, LP at eastern side helping to spin cold air round the block like a conveyor...yep, don't make 'em like that anymore!

It was to highlight how that ECM mean was possible with only 9 Greenland High scenarios. There could have been a large cluster showing similar to what the GFS has shown this evening i.e heights almost making it to various degrees. Thought it was an apt time to illustrate seeing as we've just seen an op run which produces an almost exact replica of that mean chart.

For want of a bit of clarity...this is a dead ringer for ECM mean that all the hoo harr was about earlier As you can see, Greenland heights fail to establish and a day later you get this Case closed your honour.

I cannot fathom how there was any ambiguity at all seeing as the GEFS are freely available and can be used to cross check. Plenty of members in those where Greenland heights never fully establish.

A few of us singing from the same hymn sheet, all good...this from yesterday

I take it to mean that there are 9 attempts at a true Greenland block. Other members attempt it in a more messy fashion and only half heartedly get there before being cut off via shortwaves/LP etc. I can very well see how we could get that mean from that scenario.

RE the tweet... 42 are milder and more unsettled There's a difference between that and saying 'Mild and unsettled' Without seeing the individual perts we can't make any assumptions. Matt has access to them, we do not.