Cheshire Freeze
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Everything posted by Cheshire Freeze
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OK- so that isn't a particularly impressive block but I ask you...was the Jan 2013 block impressive in terms of absolutes? No. Also I'm highlighting it because such a scenario (with much more impressive MSLP numbers) has been floating around the GEFS for a couple of days. I genuinely do not know whether your aim on this forum is to act as forum WUM but you do sometimes convey a strong sense of wanting to be so. -
Christmas-New Year week ; )
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It'll be Monday...was last month
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I'll take your day 12 and raise you day 16. A repeating trend towards last week of December and as I said above, given the continued propensity for the Azores high to ridge NE, it was only a matter of time...Charts like this are continuously being signalled within the GEFS so there is a signal there somewhere as we look towards Christmas.
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Hmmm I do get the impression that it is only a matter of time before the continued interference by the Azores high and repeated block signature to our E/SE buckles the jet sufficiently to promote enough WAA to allow Scandinavian heights to build
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Starts off at about 0C at 850 level Knocker- small blob off Norfolk Rapidly expands and cools to just about -4 some 18 hrs later
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Between 192 and 210 hrs we actually begin to culture our own cold pool...a reminder that even an island at this time of year at this latitude can see such a phenomenon. From about +1 to -4 at 850 level in a day
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FI will be interesting. The best FI synoptics have tended to follow the slightly more amplified closer time frames.
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Ahhhh but the 850s don't always tell the whole story Feb
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I've run through the individual perts at 384 hrs. 50%- yes 50% have some form of appreciable northern blocking or immediate route to blocking. That's a significant cluster.
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Here is the 18z MEAN at 384 hrs...there must be decent members in that lot (I haven't yet checked) but what I find impressive for a mean chart is the whiff of disruption to the trough in the Atlantic
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So, those knock on effects I mentioned... A much more hopeful end to FI than the abomination that was the 12z (effectively a jet circling tightly around or just N of our latitude) It's essential now that we eke out as much as we can from that block in the short term.
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It'll have knock on effects going forward though further into FI...you can see the difference across Europe straight off by day 10. It might just be variation within an envelope but everything has a knock on effect further down the line...especially when we're talking about a trop which is supposedly still disconnected from the strat. Every last ounce of amplification needs to be squeezed out- otherwise we end up like the 12z FI.
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Snow into the W by 216 hrs
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Yeah....it basically shows what we have been/are about to experience with HP to the S and LP to the NW (if you ignore the shading and look at the MSLP). Those height anomalies are rather weak to be basing a forecast of blocking on.
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
Cheshire Freeze replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Can Forecast Sometimes? -
No winter not over but we've sure been dealt a set back with how things played out through the second half of November. For the record, we were close to a SSW and would have had one had that last week of November Greenland block not failed! We were a gnats whisker away from the point of no return but all crumbled pretty quickly once that block failed to materialise. It had knock on effects all over the show.
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In all honesty any synoptic situation which doesn't involve HP sat just to our S or SE has to be a winner at this moment in time, given what we're seeing unfold at present. As I say, even in that scenario of storminess we stand the chance of enough PM air getting into the mix to at least offer something of interest. The pattern we're enduring at present, in my opinion, is just about the worst we can see in winter i.e HP limpeted in an unfavourable position bringing days and days of nothing of note.
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Ooops Sorry! No, more the point about the WAA at the time. 'I don't think you quite understand the effects going forward of this' i.e WAA and Greenland high fail. It's why I reacted so glumly to the downgrade of that general synoptic as it was obvious that it would have had a significant weakening effect on the vortex going forward had it happened. However, people seemed to refuse to acknowledge the importance of that first very important step en route to a cold first month of winter.
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Good post Steve, however, I quite like the look of some of those Parallel runs from the GFS. Caught one earlier with desperately low thickness and uppers around -5/-6. Good enough for snow here in a NW'ly flow and definitely ripe for some active cold fronts etc. Infinitely better than this boring, static weather we're faced with at present!
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People were bemoaning the 'negativity' by me in mid November when I was saying such things as the following- I'm convinced that episode was the 'watershed' moment for this December.
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Can't say I've been impressed with any ECM product over the last month or so, with this whole fiasco. I certainly wouldn't want to be forking out for its services.
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Either way, disparity cannot carry on indefinitely. I'm inclined to actually side with the GEFS on this one in the long term...Never thought I'd say that! I think the EC ENS will sharpen up in the next week for towards the festive week
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One thing I glean from that is that seemingly the Strong/very strong Ninos are getting progressively further apart.
