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Everything posted by markw2680
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Personally if it’s just dry and cold next week and then the return to mild wet crap I’ll be done with the models, all the hype and build up only to get dry and cold time after time has took its toll on me tbh, I’m even loosing interest now as it’s just talk of breakdown etc on here. We get weeks of a chase with exciting looking charts only to get watered down as it gets nearer, happens pretty much every time. sorry for the down beat post but just all feels a bit of a waste of time
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Personally I cannot stand northerly’s it’s always just wishbone crap, I know people say disturbances set up in the flow but for many central areas it’s poo. I’d take a big dump even if it turns milder after, much rather that than just boring cold blue sky crap lol
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Yes personally I’d love the big snow dump but we are talking 7 days away. Things will change every day regarding where will have snow. It’s extremely difficult to forecast snow even the day before. I’ll never forget going to bed one night with loads of snow forcast only to wake up to wet floor the whole lot went further south and we missed the lot. point is there’s no point in over analysing anything that far out
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Phases I don’t want to see in the morning are downgrade, cannon fodder , Iberian high, anything Azores, it’s phased, game over! I hate locked in but we will take it if there’s 10 pages plus when I log in the morning that’s a good sign. remember anything after day 5 is subject to changes. anyway I’m done moaning for a change. ECM, UKMO are BOOOOMBASTIC for now -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I have absolutely no idea what any of that means -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A new term I dislike these days are “locked in” we will never really be locked into anything living on the edge of the Atlantic! Very small sudden changes in the models will snap us out of a pattern extremely quickly as we know. things are looking very interesting early next week from cold and snow but not everywhere will get it and certainly won’t get locked into anything. the trend throughout the models is colder and wintry and just different models handle it differently to others which is to be expected for 6,7,8 days and so on. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Sorry but Iv just had a look on here and haven’t got a clue what’s going on. Honestly that many conflicting stuff on here. from what Iv gathered after looking at the models is high pressure pretty much taking over for most of the week and then some sort of cold northerly with chances of snow. After that nobody knows. so with all the upgrades and downgrades in here I’m off to bed -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We shall see when the clock ticks closer, believe me I hope so but I wouldn’t put my money on it -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It will feel cold next week but I’m afraid all the exciting stuff is always day 10 atm -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Question is will the pub run day 10 look or -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Until tomorrow morning when everything is slightly different and everyone panics and then come the 12z it will all be back on -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Omg people get a grip. Wake up look on here to see downgrade, poor charts, egg on face etc etc. come straight out in a mood. Look on the actual models and think its variations which are to be expected when looking5/6/7-10 days away! Come back in here and go to second from last page to see….upgrades, backtracks etc etc. you get the gist, why can’t these certain ones chill out. Every single model run will differ in one way or another and yet WE ALL know this. the cold is pretty much in our doorstep with possible snow for some. Longer term it’s dryer it’s colder, who knows what’s going to happen later next week, nobody knows certainly not the god damn GFS -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I really really don’t wanna be a downer in here but I feel the longer this high sits over the top of us the more chance of it going belly up. Like I keep seeing comments like snow events from next weekend on, it’s like a week away minimum for that, that’s plenty of time for things to go wrong. I’m hopeful for some white stuff early next week for some as models cannot be trusted for a week away. Yes it may all count down like clockwork and I hope it does but equally don’t hang your hats on it as things can change at the flick of a switch. Only takes that low to the sw to play up or the dreaded high south of us. Etc etc. -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes that’s what I was thinking, I’m sure it will all change again come the morning anyway -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes I was looking at that which could mean that low to the sw could phase with the lows coming from the north to far west. That’s just me looking to deeply into potential tits up things lol