-
Posts
1,502 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by markw2680
-
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
markw2680 replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
But then others say the slacker the flow the better as it’s colder, can’t win if you ask me. We have low pressure that’s cold enough for snow in a slack flow but it’s dry. 100% if it was mild and slack there would be heavy rain and showers lingering around -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
markw2680 replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What gets me is anytime there’s cold weather around it’s always looking dry where as when it’s mild with low pressure there’s rain coming and going with no problem. Drives me mad lol. Anyway I suppose if we get the low pressure with cold air then showers could pop up but if it’s a straight northerly then any showers will be just around the coasts. For me I don’t really see why everyone is constantly looking into fi for things when we have this cold blast on our doorstep -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
markw2680 replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It’s Thursday, they won’t make much of any potential snow until Saturday night imo. Even then they will probably play it down so they don’t cause panic as you no with snow the smallest change makes a big difference -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
markw2680 replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So as it stands early next week is set to get pretty chilly with a decent chance of snow around, in many areas if showers are heavy enough but more especially further north. Personally if we get some decent snow out of it I couldn’t give a rats ass if it gets milder a few days later. when we had the cold spell in December it was mainly dry and frosty for weeks, give me a 3 day snap with loads of snow any day. Hopefully things will firm up over the next couple of days for a decent snap -
Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond
markw2680 replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As it stands atm early next week may see some decent Cheshire gap action take place. Let’s hope it doesn’t all downgrade into nothing -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
markw2680 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If the weather was that easy to predict it would be a very boring but easy hobby. We no that’s not the case don’t we. There’s no way on earth the pros would be writing off January for cold weather on the 27th January! let’s all turn off our computers for a couple of days and see the changes, or you could just come back in feb as we are in for a wet mild January. dear me -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
markw2680 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Why does many on here take every run as gospel? Wasn’t long ago we was staring down the barrel to a massive freeze, kept hearing the words locked in? Yes we had a couple of weeks or so of cold frosty winters weather but was mainly dry and boring in my book. All I’m saying is the model runs will and do change pretty rapidly once a signal is picked up, so yes may look pretty uninspiring for the foreseeable at present but things will look different in a week or so….maybe time for a little break -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
markw2680 replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Zonal non zonal Bartlett loco whatever all I wana know is will it be cold enough to snow? If so happy days for me and many on here that gets lucky. as we have seen today the models are as confused as me with all the zonal types… onto tomorrow and see what the lovely models have in store -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
markw2680 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So that’s that then, the models are all very confident of mild wet crap all the way out to fi (Christmas)? NO they are not, yes it’s going to become mild and pretty wet at times over the next few days but there’s big uncertainty from around Wednesday onwards so let’s relax and see how things develop. The tv weather forecast and any apps are only any good for couple of days or so at the most. Need a bit of forcing on them horrible heights that appear around the med. there will be big changes in the models by the middle of next week (hopefully for the bettter) -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
markw2680 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
As we all no we normally hope it’s further west for it to actually verify further east so based on that chart it could end up bang on. But will be changes come the next run anyway so it’s pretty irrelevant imo -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
markw2680 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What on earth is GEM doing, let’s hope that’s not the trend setter -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
markw2680 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
When you look at that image you would automatically think very cold and loads of snow around, certainly wouldn’t think dry but you just know what would happen dry -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
markw2680 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Will either drop further south to keep us dry or look fantastic but remain dry. The theme will be….you guessed dry -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
markw2680 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The cold and dry theme continues the milder breakdown will just keep getting pushed back day by day I’m sure. Let’s just hope when the breakdown does finally occur we get a right good dumping because we don’t want anymore dry dry dry. The mad thing is when you actually look at the charts with all this low pressure around to the east you would think loads of disturbances pushing down across the county but no dry dry dry! without doubt if this was a low stuck out west we would be getting a right good soaking. anyway no more waffle let’s just hope for a spot of lamppost watching -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
markw2680 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Iv got my eye on that too, just thinking there’s a chance it could push them into the midlands possibly -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
markw2680 replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I really hope your right, think all we need is a bit of a tilt to the flow either nw or ne rather than straight north, that should encourage showers to push inland