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Everything posted by markw2680
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This place cracks me up, it’s like babies throwing toys about in a tantrum earlier to now big hugs and kisses all round on the back of the pub pi*s up lol. Many more twists and turns to come. Dare I even look on here come the morning Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4997278
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Oh we do indeed KRO -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This place cracks me up, it’s like babies throwing toys about in a tantrum earlier to now big hugs and kisses all round on the back of the pub pi*s up lol. Many more twists and turns to come. Dare I even look on here come the morning -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nice that was to look at but you never know we might be seeing short term upgrades come the morning. I feel the better the earlier easterly flow the better it will all be longer term, you never know there might be some snow coming in from the east early next week as a little teaser -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Some very strange posts in here again this morning, you have a few which seem to want it all to be over and keep posting so, a few are hooked on every single model op run and run the commentary. You are not going to have every run the same or upgrade etc that’s like 10 days away! It’s fi for a reason whether it shows cold or mild. Look to the more reliable and that’s early next week at most. That could spring some surprises! And then once the high settles on us yes the uppers are not as cold as it’s very slack but trust me that will be freezing. The cold is coming but nobody knows what will follow from mid week next week at the latest -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
One model op run and it’s all gone, come on mate you and everyone else knows it ent simple like that -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Seems to me like there’s more certainty in the end result than there is in the nearer mid term, think there’s going to be a very interesting week next week -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Personally I think many on here are focusing too much on what happens later next week. If the small upgrades keep on coming for early next week there could well be quite a bit of wintry stuff coming off the North Sea spreading quite a way inland. Yes it’s nice to look at what could come later but it’s subject to changes. I fear the run to run panicky poos will kick in -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes I was doing drawings of the uk with the 2 flakes around the place too lol, think it was December 1990 that really got me into it at 10 years old, still remember it like it was only few weeks ago, let’s hope next week is going to be one for our kids to remember, oh and us lot of course -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nothing after day 5 will verify like the latest runs! Can’t make up its mind for this coming uk high whether it will be bit further north so how’s it right for 5+ days away -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Woke up and thought I’d come in here first before looking at anything else. Have never been so confused. So many conflicting posts and panic about every single possibility. Things that may go wrong in the past doesn’t automatically mean that’s going to happen here. There will always be variables in any model run but the trends remain the same so the panicking needs to stop. dont no what else to say this morning . colder, frosty, mainly dry. After that nobody knows just yet but trends look good -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Don’t be silly, your input is appreciated by everyone in here, maybe some of the posts confuse me and others at times but you have a right to your opinions as we all do -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There’s some ridiculously panicky posts in here don’t know whether to laugh,scream, shout or just leave the forum lol. Big changes still yet to be resolved for this coming weekend let along any west based or med heights etc etc for 10 days + away. Honestly -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Waiting for the downgrade later so I can throw all my toys out the pram again. Expect the high to move around a little over the coming days and keep a level head and there will be less ups and downs. It is only computer models after all -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes Shaun but it’s 5 days away! Things will chop and change and what is 100 mile here or 100 mile there in the grand scheme of things? Only takes a slight misread in determine how strong or weak a high or low is. Relax my lad -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Every run is not gospel mate, you know this but the way you comment makes it seem like this is what’s happening. Your up and down more than Rita lol -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Everyone needs to sit back a little, we are talking about a high pressure been modelled correctly for 5/6 days away. Very slight changes before this will make quite big changes for our little island. The models won’t have this bang on yet, the high could easily be further north again come the 12z later. The trend is our friend and it’s all looking cold and very interesting -
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
markw2680 replied to Catacol's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It really wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest that the closer we get to the weekend (7th) the low in the southeast will be stronger than modelled at present and closer to the uk which will obviously enhance the cold coming from the east or north east and will bring snow to some, then as that pulls away we get some kind of cold high keeping most of the snow if any of course on the ground. Becoming very cold and frosty. That’s enough for me at this time -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
markw2680 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
When MOST of the models are showing similar to this for around the 7th I think if we get here we will all be happy to take it, why are we obsessing over what will happen after the 7th? Even that’s a week away and fi so will be subject to changes, there’s no way on earth any models have the correct outcome for 7,8,9 and yes 10 days away. It’s trends we want that’s all. It’s all looking good at this stage and at least we have a chance -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
markw2680 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That old chestnut again -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
markw2680 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Trouble is it’s not just the pub run is it, still plenty of time for change but the overall trend is poo -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
markw2680 replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wonder how many people on here after seeing the gfs charts from the other day was panicking telling people about the storm that was coming around the Christmas break? That’s what we all love and hate about model watching. If you allow it you will be up and down with the models making you all dizzy and sick lol. Never ever take things as gospel that’s more than 2/3 days away even then there’s always a few changes. It’s all a pinch of salt stuff but good fun seeing these mental day 10 charts.