No Balls Like Snow Balls

Low of -6.0c overnight and a slight dusting of snow to :-)

High today of -0.6c

-4.7c overnight, was quite misty come dawn.

This COULD be another straw to clutch. Look at the cpc 6-10 day and 8-14 day 500mb anomoly. 6-10 day 8-14 day Notice that the mean LP seems to transfer East across the UK. Could give us a SEterly flow perhaps???.

Blimey, should i supply the rope and a chair??? LOL

IMO no ""potential" will come to fruition this week. I am afraid LP is coming and whilst it will not be especially mild there will be no bitter Easterly either for the foreseeable.

Potential is the new buzz word in the model thread, but if you look hard enough for long enough (rose tinted glasses) you will see potential in any chart any day of the winter!!!!!, I would call it denial :-)

Max of 1.8c today, such a shame that it will become milder for a time overnight :-(

Low of -7.2c overnight, some snow cover remains :-) , especially on the Chilterns

Woke up this morning to a good covering of snow (half an inch) in Thame. Very pleased considering i was a bit sceptical about getting any :-). Good start to the winter, may there be plenty more to come :-)

Personally I don't know what is wrong with the above meto update, to me it says mostly cold :-)

Being relaistic here but there will be no raging Easterly / Neasterly for at least next 7-10 days. Look at the 500mb charts. We will have rather cold NW/W flow for forseeable future, not ruling ouT chance of snow as these fronts crossing the country have the ability to give surprise snowfalls in right conditions. These 500mb charts are normally not wrong. I HOPE I AM AND THEY ARE WRONG :-)

No sign on the 12Z GFS of things becoming that mild anywhere apart from maybe the far SW. Things stay cold / rather cold in the reliable and way off into deepest and unreliable FI. Certainly below average for the foreseeable if the GFS 12z verified. Nothing to be disappointed about IMO

We know that it will be turning colder from tomorrow and last right until Sunday with temps below avearge for time of year and it will feel cold. Also if the 06z GFS verifies then early next week Monday and Tuesday will still be cold and below average for the bulk of the country even with winds coming from the W/NW. Therefore even though it may seem like we have lost the chance of a significent cold spell for the time being (maybe just a few days???) in reality it's going to remain cold in any "milder" blip I think??. And put into context that it is still late November coming into early December then this cold spell isn't going to be really that bad or disappointing at all IMO. You could even say the cold spell never really ends in FI????

Here we go with the METO bashing LOL, when will people learn that weather forecasting is not an exact science and never will be, so why expect models and humans to be 100% correct 100% of the time. One thing that is 100% is that the METO have more knowledge than most of us mere mortals on here can ever dream of. But are they actually wrong though!!, any update they have given has always stated with great uncertainty

Yes trendy indeed sir, here comes the GFS with his Jimmy Choo's

Yeah that's cool, I like to know what other people think, as to be honest i don't have a clue LOL

Yep, no-one really knows what is going on LOL

No worries, everyone is entitled to there own opinion :-)

To be perfectly honest with the folks looking for a lenghty severe cold spell (including myself :-) today's ECM/GFS 500mb height anomalies may just be starting to suggest a change in the upper air pattern, this is in regards to the GFS and ECM starting to show a short cold spell followed by LP breaking through the block, if you look at the GFS mean it does show a more Wsterly flow in 7-10 days time with lower heights filling the void between Northern UK and Southern Greenland, whilst the ECM mean is different to the GFS it would suggest that when these anamolies are at odds with each other a change in upper air pattern is likely, but it needs at least 3 days of continous agreement to suggest the change is likely to happen Of course the upper air pattern may not change but there is a suggestion withing the 500mb mean that the GFS and ECM op's showing LP breaking through the block may well be right and we could be heading towards a "milder" few days after the cold spell before possibly the block re-builds again?????? I haven't looked at the NAEFS and the above drivel is just based on todays 500mb ECM / GFS anomalies :-)

I am not 100% sure but I don't think these update over the weekend so the one you see is from Friday, you are better off using the ECM/GFS 500MB over the weekend.

I have taken a quick look at the big 3 on my mobile and at T120 they seem to be in a similar place to each other. I am not going to stress about the GFS at T144 as it was on the milder end of the ensembles. To sum it up still looking good for a cold spell.

UKMO is actually behind GFS and ECM @ day 6, the difference between UKMO and GFS is negligible though. Of course all models verify at different times so there is nothing to suggest UKMO is wrong tonight!!!

FI is currently T96, none of the big 3 can agree where to place the LP. While the UKMO is clearly the worst of the 12Z for placement of the LP we cannot let it worry us to much as it is only 1 UKMO run that has done this.

Rob Mcelwee wrote it ;-)