No Balls Like Snow Balls

Low of 3.7c overnight, which was set quite early in the evening. Pretty breezy now.

I woke up this morning and the first thing I did was look at the models - after I had kicked them out of bed I looked at the charts (UKMO, GFS and ECM) and thought hmmm they still look good for cold. I then come on here and see disappointment and worrying. The big 3 still look good upto T144, the block looks good and we have the LP moving East, all a good recipe for cold. The 500mb charts are still looking good and showing blocking to our North in the 7+ range. All in all a cold spell in coming, these current charts are amazing and not often seen in the UK. :-)

The arctic high wants to get to the med LOL. Placement of the LP for the weekend and early next week is going to chop and change for a while yet. Until this is sorted no one can say for sure what happens with the big cold pool to the NE.

Differences at T96 on 12z GFS and UKMO Even more obvious @ T120 Realistically anything showing after T96 / T120 is pointless until the placement of the LP is resolved I would be happy if this evenings ECM sides with the GFS.

I think it's un-wise to bet against a cold spell of some sorts within the next 2 weeks, how long and severe it maybe is of course up for grabs.

"The hunt for cold december"??? - well i thought it was funny anyway LOL

all 4 runs are equally as rubbish as each other in real terms LOL

Here are the stats for each run, as you can see the difference in number's is miniscule, what this actually means in real terms i don't know. The run that a lot of people seem to think is the worst is currently the best verifying LOL - you couldn't make it up could you!!!

They are a professional organisation so of course they are going to keep there feet on the ground as no-one is sure where the block is going to end up !!! Isn't there always a great deal of uncertainty when it comes to longe range forecasting.

Obviously you won't believe a word of what it's showing though LOL

The T120 time frame hasn't been agreed on yet between the big 3 models with the ECM wanting to place LP West of the UK and bring us milder air in the mid term - therefore until that is sorted I refuse to get excited about "carslberg" runs in FI. I know that the ECM op was a outlier but that doesn't mean to say that the ensembles won't come into line with the op rather than vice versa. Just trying to keep a level head and keep things in perspective.

Low of 9.3c overnight - and it rained - thats a surprise lol

Max of 13c today, some light rain, felt mild out and about, expecting some heavy rain at some point tonight

Could be some really rather cold days across central England over the weekend and early next week, paticulary on Monday if the 12z GFS were to verify :-) Some good times to come over the next few weeks one suspects :-)

Below is the GFS 6z chart for T144. What's wrong with the 06Z?????? to me this chart oozes potential. When you have professionals from the meto coming out and saying long range charts are not worth the paper they are written on so to speak, does it then cause so much stress to so many when it all goes pete tong in FI LOL. Listen to the professionals they know more than any of us can ever dream of - FACT. :-)

Low of 9.4c overnight and that was very early in the evening

The HP has almost orbited the UK LOL

I didn't know the human body was capable of things like that. Tut tut Helga you beast!!!!!

Low of 2.0c last night - fully expecting a significant cool down of 2m temps this weekend :-)

I think the silence is down to most people comment at the end of the run rather than every frame

8.9c max today, must admit it felt a lot colder than that.

-2.9c low overnight, frosty this morning and a sparkling sunny day so far.

Maxed at 8.c today, yet again no sun appearing

Some notable wind and rain events early next week country wide if the GFS12Z comes to fruition.

Maybe signs of the LP that has dominated us for so long diminishing @ 7 day+???????????? Flow becoming more NWerly perhaps???