No Balls Like Snow Balls

IMO the GFS 06Z looks good up until T120. Heights are increasing with each run over Greenland, and generally each run is becoming colder. The low over Scandi at T120 seems to be heading more East, It would not take much from T120 onwards to give us a N/Easterly. As GP said yesterday expect the unexpected, and IMO don't look beyond T120.

According to the 18z GFS early next week T120 to T168 (I dare not look any further, and anything past T120 is pushing it) looks very unsettled. It would feel very chilly in the wind almost winter like again lol. Still good heights over greenland. If only the lows would start moving SE we would be in business. Plenty of cold pooling over Northern Scandanavia on this run waiting to come our way hopefully.

Could be pretty stormy down Eastern side of UK on Sunday according to 12z GFS at T120. or could be Stormy on Monday Further North according to UKMO, take your pick, disagreement at T120 between UKMO and GFS. Good heights still over Greenland in high res part of run on GFS. Did not bother looking into FI.

There has been height rises in Greenland being shown on last couple of GFS runs, that is something of interest and a good sign hopefully

Trouble is the ensembles are all over the place too, they are up and down like a ho's kinckers, it's impossible to tell which way it is going to go using the ensembles at this stage.

Updated now :-) UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 15 Feb 2012: The forecast for the first half of February is very uncertain. As with the day 6 to 15 forecast, there appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different. It is also fairly likely that the prevailing weather type at the end of January will continue into February. The first scenario consists of a changeable westerly or southwesterly type, with rain at times (amounts greatest in the west), and with temperatures noticeably above average for early February, with only occasional frosts. The alternative scenario is that very much colder weather, with winds from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail well into February, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall. Updated: 1436 on Tue 17 Jan 2012

Ummm great 6-15 day outlook today. Mentioning the significent risk of colder weather :-)

6Z GFS - Unsettled and cold on Friday, cannot really see any very cold or Snow up until Sunday at the earliest (despite the snow chart in post 284) I would be asstounded if that came off!!. Wintry showers in Scotland and Northern England looks about the best that will happen. , saturday milder, Sunday or T120 turning colder again perhaps? The only thing of interest I can see between T120 and T240 is heights staying quiet strong and building slowly over Greenland perhaps!! but other than that current trend is for more unsettled cool weather.

No because there is only 12 hours difference between midnight and midday, I'm sure you know that already though, still seems on track to me.

How has the ECM back tracked?, it looks almost identical at 168 on the 12z as it did at 168 on 00z. What is your explanation?

I agree it's moved a tiny bit nearer to ECM rather than moved a tiny bit further away. The 12z seems to want to split a little bit of the vortex and we have troughing in scandi, all similar to the ECM in the grand scheme of things, but still a long long way to go to give anything of wintry note.

All we need to see is the GFS moving things West then we would be in pretty much the same set up as the ECM.

LOL, i have heard these phrases like "as ever more runs needed" or "Will be decided by this evening" at least a dozen times on every model run since Monday, and yet there is still no more agreement. The weather will not be rushed and the models will all come into line in there own good time. I'd be a millionaire by now if I had a pound for every phrase lol.

All this argueing about what models the latest METO update is sideing with is really quite ridiculous. Take a step back, take a deep breath and read it for what it is, which is basically anything can happen and we don't know for definate yet.

The UKMO and ECM are pretty similar at T144, it's not hard to see how beyond T144 the UKMO could quite easily end up like tonights ECM. ECM and UKMO are the number 1 and 2 ranked models for verification, they are for a reason, so you have to back these 2 over the GFS tonight surely!!!!

GFS 06Z not bad from the point of view that it would be cold and frosty all of next week if it were to verify. Still we are looking at the cold hanging on until at least Monday for sure. Cold days and frosty nights, at least it's gonna feel like winter :-)

I do not recall strat warming being talked about as much as this last year, if at all?, it is made to sound like the holy grail of cold weather equal to the cure of cancer. It seems that strat warming has become the favourite for straw clutching, personally weather is fickle and no matter how much teleconnections point to one thing the weather will do what ever it wants. This time last week there were so many posts about winter's over because the models were showing flat zonal weather right into la la land but now things look more amplified and cooler, but some people never seem to learn that weather changes quickly and is un-predictable. The best thing to do is just look at the models and see what falls into place and what doesn't.

Still some snow patches left on the Chilterns this morning. Just goes to show what even a little bit of elevation can do.

Still some snow patches left in the shade on the chilterns when I drove through on my way to the cinema in high Wycombe.

Clouded over about 9AM and started snowing, soon turned quickly to rain though, I should imagine it fell all as snow on the Chilterns.

I can see the Chilterns from my house, and the particular hill i can see is about 240 meters and there was still a good covering of snow on there at 1pm, I would imagine there is still snow left up there now.

I would have thought they have snow there as it's only about 15 mile South from me and a much higher elevation.

Covering of snow on grass, roofs and cars in Thame, snowing quite heavy at the moment with fairly big flakes.

I've got the day off work tomorrow, drive down the M40 to London every day during the week, will be able to watch events unfold safe in the knowledge that what ever it does it won't affect me for a change . 4.1 c here and rising.

TBH i think a miracle or a snow cannon is needed for snow in your neck of the woods tonight .