No Balls Like Snow Balls

No sign of the GFS 12Z moving towards the ECM 00Z solution at all, but no surprise there really. Still the low out West and the High out East with no sign of a breakdown in the reliable. Seriously we need to rely on the euro high moving into the correct position for any chance of cold at this minute.

about 4pm, the is a link somewhere on NW mentioning times of each model's runs.

A good gale will get rid of most of the leaves that are left.

Real chilly today, first day this season where you can see your breath.

I think while the models struggle with what to do with the Euro block it is quite feasible that that a North Easterly could pop up within the 7 day time frame and stick, not saying snowmaggadon will suddenly appear, but we have to remember a small shift in the euro high could bring a moderate cold spell. But just as easily the Atlantic could steam roll in, we are looking at small margins here in the grand scheme of things.

I think exciting in the fact that it covers both bases, i.e. the ECM or GFS scenario, so exciting in terms of it's not been decided yet whether we get a roaring atlantic or cold from the euro high.

LOL, off to a flyer is a understatement.

Doesn't look like they are forecasting overly mild either. Just average by the looks of it, Jan and Feb subject to change though.

Today's 7-10 day 500mb height anomoly shows ECM with heights further North than the GFS anomoly, the GFS anomoly would probably stand side by side with the majority of the ECM ensembles then. But it does seem to suggest the ECM anomoly stands by it's op run. Whats going to happen is still as clear as mud IMO.

Currently 8.1c, overcast and feeling chilly.

Wow the ECM is a turn up for the books, wasn't expecting that. The whole process that the ECM end's up with starts the process at T144 which is probably just after the reliable at the moment. While the op run is at the colder end of the ensembles it's not a outlier. Shame the GFS is not similar at T144 and shows the Atlantic much closer and the euro high much further South, so you would have to say the ECM looks unlikely to happen but not impossible.

Your regions days of lying snow range from 10 days per year on the coast to over 40 days over the higher Pennines. The number of days with snow falling for your region is a average of 20 days for the coast and low lying inland areas and over 50 days for the high Pennines.

Yes away from the mountains of Scotland the number of days where snow falls and actually lays is very small.

If anyone is interested the official average max temp for Oxford in October was 17.2c which is 2.8c above the long term average.

Currently 11c and beautifully sunny.

I don't get excited by these weak height rises to the North that ECM and UKMO are showing, they are too insignificant to affect our weather and I think that will remain so, what would excite me is if the euro high retrogressed but there is no sign of this either, looks like GFS 18Z backing away further from a atlantic regime. Still cool daytime temps next week at around average. Not even a chance of a good old PM blast on the models.

Exactly there is no sign of a pattern change so the longer we stay in this blocked pattern the higher a chance of a cold spell becomes, pressure moves all the time, so it wouldn't stay out East for ever more, as we know blocked patterns are great for delivering cold in winter and have we have seen from runs earlier in the week it only takes a slight change in the position of the high to make pretty big changes in the conditions at the surface. If we were in late December/January then there would be every chance that this high would have us in the freezer now. In terms of potential for cold I would much rather be in this blocking pattern than have a roaring Atlantic, as we know the last 3 winters have seen a increase in blocking and the atlantic has been fairly quiet and look at the cold outbreaks we had. I don't see any cold on the horizon at the moment and i don't see anything very mild either, just average conditions.

Currently 11.5c. Sun is trying to break through the murk.

I am of this same opinion too that the longer it stays around surely the law of averages will have it in the right place for cold at some point.

Based on 00Z GFS run then Mon, Tues, Wed's will be the coolest days next week, with single digit temps in many places especially on Wed's, Tuesday night will see us with the best chance of having frost, certainly a lot less chance of frosts than what the GFS was progging earlier in the week. Thur's see's a slight warm up in temps. Looks like the Atlantic tries to make in-roads later in the week but It does not look like it gets very far across the UK based on current output's

Sounds so simple . Unfortunately the rate it is going i don't think we will see any proper cold until December.

Groundhog day!!!. The GFS 500mb height anomolies i saw this morning didn't even show low pressure out in the Atlantic anymore, so the GFS op is going against it's 500mb predictions?. Also the mean SLP on the GFS ensemble doesn't go below 1010mb for the entire run, it does kind of suggest this euro high isn't going anywhere?

Yes FI is about 144 at the moment on the latest GFS ensembles and after that is anyone's guess. Earlier in the week we saw quite big changes in the position of the euro high and this was at the T120 mark. Model watching at the moment reminds me of "modern winters" back in the day when the best we could look forward to was a 2 day Northerly toppler and then the rest of the time model watching was about "what if's" that never materialised.

Umm yes the GFS and ECM around the 144/168 mark are pretty similar. I can't make head nor tail of the UKMO though.

About time , that suggests to me we will see a more mobile Atlantic.