No Balls Like Snow Balls

Yes, I havent seen anything in the models yet to suggest this apart from the odd FI tease LOL. something to keep an eye on in future model runs though to see if as Phil says the met office might think the jet is coming further South.

The below met office update is of interest, especially the piece i have put in bold. How would we see these conditions interpreted on the models if you know what i mean? I assume for us to get snow down to low levels even in the North we would have to see Low pressure tracking further South and East? allowing a Northerly outbreak?, this is the only way I can see what the met office are saying happening. If I am right there has been some signs of cooling and lows getting further South and East in some FI runs?. "UK Outlook for Monday 28 Nov 2011 to Wednesday 7 Dec 2011:" It will be a largely unsettled period across the bulk of the UK, with the wettest and windiest weather towards the northwest, with gales and spells of heavy rain or showers most likely here. Showers will turn to snow at times over high ground in the north. There will, however, be some drier and more settled interludes, especially towards the southeast of the country. Temperatures are likely to be around the seasonal average, but some places may see slightly below average temperatures at times, especially later in the period. This will bring an increased risk of frost overnight almost anywhere during any more settled spells, as well as an increased risk of snow to lower levels, mainly in the north of the UK."

I think the early part of the latest ensembles paint a good picture of how mobile mobile and fast moving the weather is going to be in the coming days. Remember only last week and the 3 weeks prior to that, the ensembles probably look liked they had flatlined

Currently 5.4c, lovely sunny morning after early air frost, fog patches in places driving to work this morning.

Ice on the car this morning after a early evening shower, my weather station said 1.6c at 0700 this morning, but don't know what temp it actually got down too.

GFS 06z = Storm moving through on Saturday with the NW and Scotland worst affeceted, everywhere will see some rain though and gusty winds. Another storm for Tuesday is on the cards with the same areas worst affected again, not in the reliable just yet so still room for change. Another low being progged for Thursday next week, but this time further South, with the strongest winds and heaviest rain in the South and West, lots happening in the models at the moment, a very dynamic period of weather we are entering Hooorah

5.6c, come on frost lol.

7.4c at the moment, falling quite rapidly, hoping for my 3rd air frost LOL.

It's nice to see the 850 ensembles getting below the average. What I have noticed is that the mean has been slowly but steadily falling over the past couple of days with each run. Long may the cooling trend continue.

Some much needed and welcomed for the South if it came off

My god it's raining here!!, currently 12.8c

Well my young eyes tell me that preceding T384 the high starts to build in Central Europe and moves North, would that not be a euro high as central Europe seems to be it's origin. As far as I know Scandinavia has not moved out of Europe and become a new continent. I don't think I said it would come off at T384, a misinterpretation by you there i think, all I said was is I will keep an eye on it to see if it appears in days to come.

Umm NAEFS has us back with the euro high by the end of the first week of december. Round 2 anyone? I shall be keeping a very close eye on this in the coming days to see if this continue's to be modeled on NAEFS. I can only assume that this time around it maybe a slightly cooler high? in the meantime we should enjoy the upcoming autumnal weather. Totally agree, if it is a question about models, what to look out for etc or how a certain factor will affect the models then it should be asked in here. But that's not rocket science to realise that surely.

Wet and Windy for most over the weekend on the GFS 06z. Very windy potentially in Scotland with damaging gusts. As seems the norm at the moment the largest quantities of the rain will be in North and West. A weekend of interesting weather to look forward to. Will feel cold in most places given the strength of the wind.

Currently 10.5c , misty.

If the 12z GFS verifies then Saturday will be the first day this season that daytime temps will be in single digits country wide, Something to look forward too. GFS has a much more Westerly regime in this run, so would be a little milder with less PM incursions. GFS winds a massive low up at T114 which was no where near as deep on the 06z. No way is cooler/colder/milder or just plain average sorted yet. If I were a betting man I would go with the last few GFS ensemble means and say average to slightly below average at times. We shall see!!!. I think that in this kind of pattern it is all about small margins.

For much of the time the op run follows the mean (for Oxfordshire anyway) with the odd blip here and there, I don't think there are to many people expecting lowland snow from this, certainly not down South and probably not even lowland snow in Scotland. I think people are just happy to see a more seasonal outlook in the models, myself included.

Currently 8.7c, Misty

I do believe there are a few sheep and goats that are members and will welcome the news.

Great set of models this evening if you like interesting weather which I am sure most of us do. Great FI on GFS and ECM isn't to shabby either, plenty of potential for wintryness in the long term, and certainly a cooler, fresher feel by the end of next week if the models continue the current trend.

LOL I doubt supermarkets base there buying patterns on reading the newspapers. Surely it's just the time of year where people would start buying de-icer in readiness for winter and nothing more than that. Looks like a bit of tabloid hype going on in here trying to make a story out of nothing.

Currently 8.7c, partly cloudy

GFS 06z has pretty much the same track of the vigorous low as the ECM at T144, GFS brings in another vigorous low soon after unlike the ECM. GFS has a much cooler NW flow at the end of next week just like the ECM. GFS also now tries to build a mid Atlantic ridge just like ECM has been trying to do with a trough over in Scandinavia, could the 2 models be onto something half decent from a cold point of view? I like the GFS from a windy, wet and cooler point of view

I haven't owned a microwave in 2 years and I do not miss it one little bit.

But i think the point is the healthier person is likely to outlive the un-healthy person, so as you say we only have one life, so do you not think that as we only have one life we should make sure we live as long as possible?. P.s. I'm not no health freak, i like a good pig out occasionaly and I chained smoked for 20 years, only gave up 15 weeks ago but it is one of the best things i ever did. OMG too much salt increases blood pressure which can increase the risk of heart attack, strokes etc, which i think you will find can kill you. Seriously you cannot be ignorant to that can you?