No Balls Like Snow Balls

It does not look like we will see temps reach 18c this weekend as some were predicting earlier in the week. This is to do with the high being postioned more North than earlier runs allowing a slightly cooler Southeasterly flow rather than a Southerly flow earlier in the week.

My sentiments exactly, we only have to look at the ECM 12z last night @ t168 to see that only slight changes in the models can make a big difference outcome.

Currently 10.6c. Dull and damp but not as dull as yesterday.

Looking at the longer term picture for the whole of winter what we are seeing now must be good for the future winter months. Basically we are awash with high pressure, ok so it's not in the right place at this minute but eventually we will hit the jackpot, it is the law of averages that tells us this, if we see a continuation of high pressure dominated weather through the whole of winter i think we will have a cold and fruitful winter.

The ECMWF @ T168 has a much better orientation of the euro high if much cooler daytime and evening temps is what you are after, There would be much more of a Easterly/North Easterly feed rather than the more South Easterly feed of the T168 GFS. ECM 500MB GFS 500MB GFS 850'S ECM 850'S Look at how much closer the colder 850's get to the UK on the ECM because of the better orientation of the euro high, not saying they will reach the UK (far from it) but we would certainly experience much cooler temps than we have been used too.

I have been reading about Global Wind Oscillation (GWO) and Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) and would I be right in saying that a high AAM can lead to a cold wet/snowy winter in Western Europe?. Sometimes the way things are written can make things sound sooooo complicated. I suppose that I should say that rather than a whole winter I should say period instead?. So in what i have gleaned from the readings I can I assume that a high AAM phase can lead to an increase in low pressure to the East of the UK bringing colder conditions from the East? and a low AAM phase can lead to an increase of mid latitude blocking i.e. a high centered close to or over the UK bringing us dry and mild southerly winds?

Yes agreed we are still a long way off of getting -5 850hpa air over us and even 0c 850hpa air still seams a very long way off. But I am talking short term, i.e. next week and I am talking about the orientation of the euro high being that it may bring a Easterly/South Easterly feed or a Southerly feed, this would be the difference between daytime temps of 13-15c and say 8-10c, may not sound a lot but i can assure you 8-10c after this mildness we have had would feel noticeably chilly.

I don't think anything is set in stone yet for next week in regards to will we see a continuation of mild daytime temps or a fairly significent decrease in daytime temps to slightly below average and even single digit daytime figures. The 06z and 12z GFS of yesterday showed the euro high further North and West giving more of a Easterly/South Easterly feed of air and progging daytime temps in single figures, yesterdays 18z then had the high further South and East putting us back in a more Southerly flow for next week, then surprise surprise the 00z GFS had us back in a Easterly/South Easterly feed, then LO and BEHOLD the 06z puts us back in a Southerly feed. It's as clear as mud still but I will maintain we have a 75% chance of a fairly significent decrease in daytime temps from Monday next week. Icindentally Weather Online update this morning goes for turning colder by the end of the weekend.

10.1c, very dull and drizzle on and off.

I really do believe that we will have seen the back of these mild temps from Monday next week and there will be nothing but a marked cool down from then on. Obviously it won't be good enough for some but after the unseasonably mild temps of late just a cool down feels like winning the lottery.

GFS progging single figures away from coasts from Monday onwards for daytime temps, would be very noticeable after the mild we have had.

I don't think anywhere will see 18c this week not even the centre of London, just using the GFS 2m temps, i only see 15c being reached maybe a 16c squeezed somewhere before a cool down again on Sunday and much noticeably cooler temps following on Monday.

I think that we have a 75% chance of having a much colder period of weather from the 14th November onwards, when i say much colder I don't mean freezing temperatures and blizzards!!, what i mean is slightly below average temperatures for November thus bringing a chance of snow for the North of Scotland and I don't mean the top of Cairngorm either. The NAO and AO are due to go negative soon , both the NAO and AO being negative increase the chances of colder weather over Northern Europe. The 500mb height anomolies also point to height increases to our North and East which also greatly increases the chances of colder air moving into Northern Europe. all 3 of the major models GFS,ECMWF and UKMO also show height rises in there latest outputs, albeit the GFS shows it's height rises to be in a different place to the ECM and UKMO we would still see much colder temperatures than of late. The only thing I can't quite figure out is that in 7 days time the MJO is forecast to move into phase 8 which the MJO composite for phase 8 doesn't quite mirror the current model trend of height rises to our North , Phase 6 most closely mirrors the current UKMO and ECMWF output , the MJO forecast has it's FI like the models though I guess so the phase could quite easily stay in phase 6 i guess.

Looking at the last few runs with all the 3 major models it looks as though we can be certain about one thing and that is that daytime temperature's will fall back close to average / just above from the end of this weekend onwards. Some teasing in FI on the GFS 12z for cold fans. TBH I don't know why a lot of people are down beat about the last few runs in the models, to me they could quite easily evolve into something a lot colder and they are a lot better looking than they have been for the last few weeks.

I'm not so sure if it will be a rogue run. The UKMO and GFS at 144hrs are almost identical. Plus today's 500mb height anomolies show a change in high pressure movement to the North/North East.

Um yes the 500mb charts also indicate a weakening of the trough out west and a shift in the high pressure to more Northerly lattitudes.

Ok cool. Thanks for that. I just want this Euro high out the way so we can get some more transient weather moving across the whole country rather than the South West gggrrr.

I have a question! To my untrained eys the GFS 500MB chart shows heights much further North and not as intense as the ECM chart, would this indicate a change in pattern maybe within the 7-10 day time frame and a transfer of heights further North?. I am trying to understand how these 500MB thingy charts work.

First frost of the season this morning, I was surprised in having to scrape the car. Will be even colder tonight with a ground frost i suspect. Shame it will be getting milder soon :-(

Looking at the ensembles of the past couple of days it looks as though things will be decidedly average/slightly above temp wise for the forseeable future after this very warm spell this week. Nothing to suggest anything significantely colder, YET!!.

Hi, Post 521, below yesterdays meteo update UK Outlook for Thursday 6 Oct 2011 to Thursday 20 Oct 2011: Temperatures are expected to fall back to nearer normal for the time of year across much of the UK by day, dropping below normal at night, especially across the Midlands and southeast, leading to an increased incidence of overnight frosts. The cooler conditions at night will be mitigated by day in some parts by sunnier than normal weather, with both the far south and far north of the country favoured to see above normal amounts of sunshine, with nearer normal sunshine hours elsewhere. Rainfall amounts are correspondingly likely to be a little below average in most areas, especially in the west. Updated: 1209 on Thu 22 Sep 2011 To me going from night time temperatures of 14/15/16c to possibly below freezing is a lot colder. Yes fair play it says cooler not colder, but i think what we believe the meaning of colder/cooler to be should be left to our own personal interpretation. It's more of a case of being pedantic rather than asking for accuracy. Thanks.

I was actually refering to the meto update of yesterday and the day before and the day before that. Toys can go back in pram now thank you.

Well out in FI but yes please, it has been suggested on more than a few runs that after the warm spell the high may well move NW allowing a NW/N of some sort and would tie up with the Meto 30 day outlook of becoming colder.

From what I can see from the latest ensembles and reading the met office update i cannot see this being more than a 7 day warm spell. Looks like things will start to cool down to around average for October in the middle of the 1st week of October. After that it looks as though we could enter a period of cold frosty nights, looks like we could go from summer nights to winter nights in the space of 2 weeks.

Well thank god October is now starting to appear on the GFS, we can now start looking for signs of proper autumn and early winter in the models. Cold pooling appearing to the North of the UK is a sight to behold.