No Balls Like Snow Balls

Ah cool. Cheers

May I ask where you get this analysis from?

Quite a foggy start this morning, now lifted to grey murk. Currently 9.7c

They look like outliers to me after dates mentioned in previous post.

The 00z GFS op run is a mild outlier after the 19th Nov, so that would suggest that a high plonked to the South of the UK isn't the correct set up this minute, in turn the 00z ECM op is a cold outlier from the same date, no man's land me thinks.

If the 12z GFS verifies then we would see the first widespread single digit daytime temps of the season by the end of next week. What a lot of people seem to miss is if this high stayed around long enough then it would just get colder and colder would it not?, if it stayed as far North as possible at least I guess?

It's not the mild temps i mind so much but the stale weather, i.e dull and lifeless, if it's going to be mild i want a roaring atlantic bringing heavy rain and severe gales to go with it.

Thats ok the euro high can wait, it isn't going anywhere.

This is from a very reliable source:- The computer equipment that runs the GFS has been destroyed in a fire which is why there is no 12z run. They are very apologetic and have sent a member of staff to the beach to find some sea weed which they say will be just as reliable as the GFS computer model.

Well i assume that it would not just have been hasitly written yesterday on a bit of loo roll . Probably got done earlier in the week maybe. Edit: see post 444

yes it has surprised me to as below is some of the text taken from December forecast:- "temperature forecasts which are close to or a little below average for much of the UK". December outcome is as clear as mud in my eyes. December Air Pressure Click to enlarge December Temperature

I think what it all means in the grand scheme of things is that really no one has a clue what will happen

There is a very good chance of frosts next week and a cooling down of daytime temps to around average countrywide, certainly not the very mild temps of the end of this week.

IMO i can see the block holding, from what i can make of the latest teleconnections it hints that blocking will remain. The 500mb height mean today suggests that low pressure may set up much South and West of the UK than we have been seeing. We will see though and of course this is all long term and as we have seen not even the short term is sorted yet.

Personally I wouldn't bother looking past T120 for any possible outcomes, look what happened yesterday with the ECM and GFS throwing up a strong ridge towards Greenland and that was at t144 it all changed i think. Who knows what will happen, will the ridge stay and retrogress further or will it sink South, the answer is nobody knows, I think we should be concentrating on the short/medium term for any exciting/interesting developments.

I think both the ECM 00Z and GFS 00Z are shaping up quite nicely for cooler daytime temps next week, with a risk of frosty nights in places.

Currently 9.8c and overcast (no change there then)

The 12z GFS has moved us nearer to a continental feed next week not further away. I really don't see what you see. you keep saying temps could reach 18c at the weekend but i do not see any evidence in any current model output that this will be the case.

Will be interesting to see where the ECM op run sits in the ensembles, but both the 12z GFS and ECM would have us with much cooler days and some frosty nights next week. TBH though the GFS has been toying with cooler temps and frosty nights all week, swinging from mild to cool with every run it seems, but now it has come within 120hrs it may start to stick with the cooler/frosty theme.

Is it my untrained eye or does the euro high at t144 on the 12z UKMO start to make a swift exit SE and it starts to loosen it's grip on us?

Yes I notice a slight frost is possible on Monday night and especially Tuesday night in favoured locations if GFS verifies. The differences are so small i cannot see with naked eye.

OMG there is hardly a cloud in the sky now , should be quite chilly tonight then under cleasr skies perhaps. As of 1500 hrs 15c

It wouldn't be that unusual if the conditions persisted all month, gone are the days that seasons follow rules, April down my way was warmer than June but even then it didnt raise my eyebrows, it is what we have to expect from our climate now, i.e. anything can happen at anytime. Yes I read the met office update every day so i am fully aware that it is forecast to stay mild for the near future, but my point is it's when and not if a cold spell will happen as some seem to suggest they have written off Dec/Jan/Feb already because of late Oct current Nov weather.

This is not exactly scientific but I have just used the GFS archives and looked at every November 9th since 1998, every year bar one has shown Western Europe in +1c to 10c 850's so what i take from this is there is nothing unusual about the mild uppers we are seeing at the moment and the subsequent mild surface temps, ok we are above average but we are not record breaking above average and it doesn't raise many eyebrows. some have been saying that there were early signs last year of the cold December too come which indeed was correct, but lets not forget that there are also signs today that things are going to turn much colder eventually. The evidence for this is as follows: NAO and AO going negative soon 500 mb charts supporting height rises to North of UK Atlantic being quiet (no storm after storm moving across UK) Very tentaive signs of Statospheric warming. Whilst the teleconnections may not be as strong as last year, that means nothing other than we probably won't be getting a December like we did last year, but being a 1 in 100 year event no-one can expect we will. I know that there are many many many more factors than the above that need to go into place to give us a cold shot but the evidence is out there to suggest a cold shot sooner rather than later. so for all the doom mongers and folks fed up with the current stagnant models i am pretty much of the opinion that it will be WHEN a cold shot will happen rather than IF.

So this would mean the the PV maybe weakening? do you have a link to where i can view this chart please on a regular basis. I was trying to find a link to 30hpa charts yesterday without no joy.