[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Lots of snow chances for us this coming week, fingers crossed it delivers for all in the region.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Snow chances a plenty for Scotland, Ireland, Wales and northern England.

What a fantastic week ahead for most.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

39 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Perhaps for the peaks but majority of population it’s dry…

I’ll take the 7 cm’s please

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

The southern bias has actually increased, it’s a joke and nothing gets done.

Its a good job we aren’t relying on that low to the south or I’d be losing my rag in there.

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

If the cold starts relaxing and not pushing as far south early on then the Atlantic low could start tracking north - the only way that will happen is if the initial plunge is slower - this morning that does look like it could happen.

Id be surprised if the METO continue to mention the chance of disruption next week - but if they do, expect that low to start tracking north - if it does the temps will be borderline of course. The ECM is the first to start moving it north - so one to watch still - I guess. 

 

It is possible for the south to be bone dry and the north to have disruption, that would still work for the met office.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

flow looks too straight on Monday, wishbone, but that is our only hope I think, winds look WNW on tues, so could be a window of NW'lys on Mon night

WNW is perfect  

[Model discussion highlights]

Tamara has just casually thrown 1978 out there as the most likely set up, there has never been such a ramp.

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5005909

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Tamara has just casually thrown 1978 out there as the most likely set up, there has never been such a ramp.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

If the usually negative 0z is an upgrade then we should be in for a positive day.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Yes it’s 240 but you have to admire its beauty, we dont see it often these days.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

4 minutes ago, The Northern Ramper said:

Beautiful

Oh the absolute dream

The north jackpot run, on a Friday too

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Oh my days, the northwest jackpot run!!

Just now, The Northern Ramper said:

Oh my days, the northwest jackpot run!!

On a Friday as well, snow day long weekend

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

5 minutes ago, Derecho said:

How is this? 

Beautiful

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Bank 

Oh the absolute dream

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Snow piling into the north

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

54 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Cumbria always receives snow when unforecast and everywhere else has little, think 2 Dec. We are the most difficult part of England to forecast, our own world..

Maybe let somebody else have some this time

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

14 hours ago, Linda said:

Sorry but having been on the original bbc ‘snow watch’ forum (showing my age) and this whilst I agree there is a southern bias I don’t agree with the comments about nick, Nick Sussex was one of the original posters here (and done watch I think) and to be fair he does try to give a balanced analytical opinion even when it’s not going well for us coldies others like ste prudence will remember nick from the old days and agree with me.

Nick is a very knowledgeable poster and his info from the American forums can be invaluable.

He does love the drama though.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Lovely to see snow getting into Northern England on the 6z. Ireland getting a pasting too. Rain for many in the south. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

18 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

by Day 8 the height over Greenland have drained away leaving up at the mercy of wedges. 
the the Atlantic is sliding into southern England, not a fan of south easterly winds but those to the south should be

The Manchester shadow.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Remarkable consistency for the time frame

slightly lower heights over Greenland with the high shifting slightly west

The 15th of January is the day, it always come back to that day.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

10 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Here I was awful when I was younger, will it snow in carlisle, when will it snow in carlisle . However I've grew up just

Yeah, it’s the child like fascination of falling snow, it never leaves you.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

5 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

I agree but we shouldn't have to wade through posts, it's basically snow watch south east . It is a good thread filled with great posts just a shame it's like this every winter.

Agreed, which is why I go on about it

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

6 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

I really don't know how they get away with it, it's basically a hunt for cold and snow in the south east not a mod thread

Most winters it starts getting to me and then I have to get busy with the ignore feature but still it’s a pain that I have too.

There are some incredibly knowledgeable people in there if you can Wade through the deliberate wind ups and southern bias posters.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

This post is fine in the mod thread, but what is not fine is highlighting the southern issue.

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

Got to be happy with that.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM extended cluster T264+:

Clusters 1 and 4 maintain the block and it relinquishes control by day 15, which is as per the timetable set out above by @Met4Cast for something of a resurgence from the Atlantic.  Cluster 2 is more mobile than that from the start of the timeframe.  Cluster 5 (and to a lesser extent 3) hint - like this mornings cluster 3 - at building heights into Scandi as the next move.

I may have dreamt this but wasn’t  this scenario referenced by one of our most knowledgeable posters? They stated that the models would blow through the uk but in reality there would be struggles with attempts to remove our imbedded cold. Before renewed attempts at northern blocking.