The Northern Ramper

January 8

2 minutes ago, Dark Horse said:

Yeah and the weird thing is they often downplay snow for northern England or ignore it altogether but on the other hand they normally acknowledge it for Scotland. Almost as if they cannot bear the thought of us having a chance of snow in northern England............If we ain't getting it, that Englander isn't either! *toys thrown*

And then you have that Nick guy who lives in Cyprus or Eastbourne (you never know with him) and seems to spend all of his free time bigging up charts for the UK and forensically going over them whilst sat in the eastern med. anyway mad thread rant over. Onto the charts themselves I've got no complaints about them at all. Still looking very good

He was in the French Pyrenees for a time

I’ve had 3 posts moderated in the last hour so I’m just reporting now as instructed.

I did want to respond to the posts suggesting that I wasn’t seeing the bigger picture of the cold not getting far enough south.

Ive only been following the models and thread for 15 years so what would I know after this time? Completely missing my point.

January 8

There isn’t a southern bias in the nob thread, posters from Kent, Sussex and Essex have told me.

January 8

9 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

So here’s the question.

Starting Monday 15th Jan for 14 days you could pick anywhere in the country to live, where would it be? Scotland? NE for the Easterly? South Midlands for a jackpot snow event off the channel runners? A mountain in Wales? In this set up I’m not sure. I like the look of South midlands just in case those low pressure systems bump into the cold air for a foot of snow but then I might miss out on shower activity

where is the perfect place ???

Leicester

January 8

Name change, the artist formerly known as ramp.

January 8

5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

I knew that Azores low was up to no good, crazy run for those in southern England and south wales.

First run I’ve seen the low interact like this so it’s either a trendsetter or outlier.

When we factor in the standard southern corrections of a LP system coming up against a block, it will be lucky to hit Jersey.

January 8

8 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

I can smell a major snow event coming to North Midlands/Northern England with rain/sleet to south according to GFS

Would follow on the general theme from over the last several years

Yes a cracking run for the north, things you love to see

January 8

A Bitterly cold feel and snizzle in the air of Saddleworth, lovely

January 7

1 minute ago, steveinsussex said:

But where does it sit in the ENS

A mild outlier.

January 7

9 minutes ago, Cymro said:

Get into the regionals guys

This is their regional thread.

January 7

13 minutes ago, Hatewarmth said:

Once again I’ll state this has ALWAYS been progged for the 15th

It’s clearly counting down nicely.

January 7

1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

"Houston we have a problem"

You don't have to be a depressed pessimist to see things are trending the wrong way, the ENS are underwhelming and the ECM op a shadow of what was promised a few days ago.

Polish it as much as you want but you won't make the models shine, yes still plenty of time for upgrades as the cold spell is still a week away but we need to see the trend reverse soon.

If it is to go TU then I would rather it be now than at +72 which has happened in the past.

People look at upstream developments in the Pacific but for me it's Iberian Heights that's the issue, the drought in Spain is now serious and unprecedented with little sign of a change anytime soon.

Andy

When we have had ‘Holy grail’ Synoptics there is only one way it can trend. I mean we had a Polar Low over us the other night.

Things are still looking good to me.

January 6

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

The EC is better though for height's than the 00z,look at the difference between the two.

Exactly, it’s only going one way.

January 5

In my mind nothing has changed from my stance of being optimistic but cautious 24 hours ago, with a couple of points to add.

1. It is said often that the GFS is strongest in that particular area where the shortwave appears and the other models don’t show it. So don’t be surprised if that is correct.

That being said it is also poor in modelling these features against a block so it’s doubtful to have got its track correct, if it even exists.

2. The gems snowfall charts have always been woefully over exaggerated.

Plenty of water to go under the bridge still but for me we are 24 hours closer tonight.

January 4

The charts are lovely but keep calm people there’s water left to go under the bridge.

January 4

18 minutes ago, Purga said:

The Mancs, the Scousers & the Irish complained

So GFS delivered -

Oh my days

January 2

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

@Kasim Awan you're cool in model thread! certainly know your stuff

I was just about to post, don’t let the mod thread stop you posting in here. We are a good bunch in the NorthWest thread, I’ve never seen hostility in here.

Ive got lots on the blocked list in that thread.

January 2

21 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Indeed, feb. The change is nicely illustrated by this week's Deep Dive:

Thanks for posting that, it was a good watch.

December 25, 2023

Merry Christmas all

December 21, 2023

30 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I can't help but feel the usual Southern bias reared its head in here again today which is understandable given the output shows no cold for the S but talk of having to be realistic and how awful the output is etc etc while totally dismissing the possibility of some wintriness in the N is somewhat misleading.

I don't think I have read a single post talking of a looming cold spell, just of the Atlantic train being somewhat derailed in the mid term with a possibility of snow for the N and that is clearly reflected in the output with low pressure stalling in the Atlantic and disrupting.

Just because there isn't a Greenland high and -12 850's flooding into the SE in the reliable now doesn't mean that won't change at some point, but it won't just appear overnight, there will be steps to get there and that is what the chase is all about, looking for how and when that might happen in FI and then following developments from there.

GFS 144

UKMO 144-168

So while it is fair to say the weather will remain unsettled for some time with any cold incursion reserved for the N, it is not typical zonal into FI as we often see.

In fact GFS 12z doesn't manage to push a single low across us and through to the E in 4 days from Atlantic low here to the same Atlantic low over us here with ridge attempt behind.

If we are going to say that is a zonal write off then we may as well give up model watching and posting until the models only show a locked in cold spell because 90% of posts will be cynical told you so posts when we suffer our usual Winter guff instead of the snow most of us want and have little to do with analysing the actual output.

Most of this thread in Winter is about trawling the models and background signals for the possibility of tapping into some cold and yes, a lot of that chasing will end in disappointment but don't let that sour the masochistic fun to be had in chasing it.

The current output is showing a chance of transient snow for the NE, dependent on how far S the low track around day 6 with the possibility of wraparound cold air as it passes through

Thereafter any chance of wintriness will also be transient be reserved for the NW from PM flow as any trough passes through, so if you in the S then I'm afraid patience is the watch word while we look for the next chance of blocking.

That first but unlikely chance will come around New year with Atlantic blocking attempt and that has been the case for some time.

Thereafter we are into deep FI but current ensemble data suggest rising pressure from the W toward the end of the 1st week of Jan but much too far out to make any conclusions other than the Atlantic looks to become less active as we head through the week post New year.

Until then, hang in there, have the best Christmas possible and come back r4freshed for the annual search for cold and snow.