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Everything posted by Rollo
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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
Rollo replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Have you disbanded your committee yet or are they still on standby Nick. -
It may be something to do with the unseasonable warmth in the med try to work it’s way north that is causing confusion but I was not aware that the beeb were forecasting mild southerlies next week , calm you nerves and wait for the 12z and see the comments of the likes of Nick Sussex, IDO and Corinthian. My bet is that the 06z has gone off on one.
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Que Sera Sera as they say, I have followed this site since the early days and know we have been here before, will I ever learn. What knowledge I have gleaned leads me to the following prediction, plenty of snow for us in February but will we get the severe cold to go with it, we’ll that’s a story for the future.
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Before the hoped for start of the fireworks so to speak there are another 21 to 25 new charts to be issued from GFS, surely there will be several upgrades and downgrades, we cannot expect each successive chart change to be an upgrade, it may go all tits up but enjoy the ride, if it’s too much for you give it a rest for a couple of days
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The problem with this winter in particular has been the raised North Sea temperatures, where I live there have in November, December and January where the North Sea influence here about 12 miles from the coast has turned virtually veering on the wrong side of marginal. I hope from that point of view this winter is a one off but I fear it is a result of Global Warming. It would be a sad state of affairs if low ground in the North East had to rely on the Beast every winter. Never mind things are currently looking promising after the middle of next week as folks say what can possibly go wrong!!
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If my memory serves more correctly back in the sixties, these battleground situations usually went the cold way, times are different now and I have decided to throw a coin in the air and it has come down decisively for cold!