Kirkcaldy Weather
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Posts posted by Kirkcaldy Weather
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First 20C of the year yesterday with a max of 20.1C
32 minutes ago, SW Saltire said:approximately 110mm for the month so far
Similar here sitting on 114.13mm so far.
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Tonnes of fascinating evolutions occuring teleconnectively
I'll start by revisiting the Arctic Oscillation which I discussed here
On 02/04/2024 at 21:04, Kirkcaldy Weather said:With the teleconnective pairing of the move from a strong -NAO toward positive NAO values with recent stronger +AO values we'll see a focus of troughing and cyclonic developments more centering effects for Northwest and Northern UK and Ireland with a building of higher pressure having greater impacts toward southernmost UK and Europe.
Taking the data from the above post
Easy to see the -AO event has become even stronger than anticipated, the strongest positive values for a long time and stronger than during the whole entire winter season.
On 07/04/2024 at 19:34, Kirkcaldy Weather said:All fitting in ideally with expectations this is an excellent teleconnective configuration for significantly cold air to be entreched across the Arctic I expect helping the Arctic Ice too
We can watch as the extremely cold airmass associated with the Tropospheric Vortex begins to move from the Russian end of the Arctic across toward the Alaskan and Canadian end. Values at -28C 850hpa ongoing possibly some nearing -30C and still maintaining at least -24C at 850hpa upon the position shift.
On 07/04/2024 at 19:34, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Heading toward Mid April I'm watching for a plunge of Arctic air as troughing develops to the North of the UK and moves toward Scandinavia and Europe bringing a flow from the Northwest and North.
This can be noted from the above animations but delving slightly deeper.
Trends show the coldest conditions becoming centred across Europe.
Very fascinating setup hemispherically we've got a number of Rossby Wave Break Events.
I have already discussed most of these and some of their impacts here
Focusing on the North Pacific this looks the most impressive and set to continue development into an ongoing Rossby Wave Train - RWT
We also have a developing Rossby Wave Break Event from the North Atlantic through Europe and North Africa by Mid April 14th > 15th.
The right hand cut off low will be part of the significant cold temperatures across North Africa as discussed in my post in the global temperature thread however this will also bring a significant flash flood risk as a significant rainfall event occurs in Tunisia extending into Northeast and North Algeria.
To fully understand the upcoming developments beyond this timeframe we need to look in detail at recent and ongoing teleconnective developments.
To do this I'd like to revisit my posts from the start of January, January 20th and March 4th.
Beginning with the MJO and El Ninò, a lower amplitude cycle was always going to occur and upon doing research this is a common occurence during the latter stages of strong/super El Ninò Events with the following excerpts from
"The eastward propagation of MJO was also observed during the decaying stages of the three super El Niño events, but its intensity was weaker compared with the developing and mature stages."
"3.3 Decaying stages
The eastward propagation of the MJO could be observed during the decaying stages of the three super El Niño, but their intensity, duration and propagation distance were significantly weakened compared with those in the developing and mature stages (Figure 2). The spatiotemporal spectral analysis in Figure 3 also showed that power spectrum of intraseasonal eastward propagation during the decaying stages of the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Niño events were relatively stronger than those during the 1982/83 El Niño. The central periods of the eastward propagation for the MJO were mainly 40 days and 75 days during the decaying stages of 1997/98 El Niño, and it was primarily 40 days for the 2015/16 El Niño. However, there is no center of intraseasonal eastward propagation during the 1982/83 El Niño. The strong wave of eastward and westward propagation of lager than 90 days appeared in the decaying stages of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events, which may be induced by the conversion of the MJO energy to low-frequency energy of above 90 days (Li and Zhou, 1994; Li and Li, 1995). At the same time, the high-frequency wave activities of the eastward propagation were prominent at 20–30 days during the decaying stages of the 1997/98 El Niño. In addition, the eastward propagation center of zonal wave 2 was detected during the decaying stages of the 1982/83 El Niño.
The evolution and composite results of the RMM index during decaying stages of three super El Niño illustrated that the MJO activity in the decaying stages is significantly weaker than that in the developing and mature stages. The MJO intensity in the decaying stages was the weakest, especially for the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events (Figure 2; Figure 4; Figure 5). The RMM indexes of phase 4–8 during the decaying stages of the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Niño changed from positive anomaly in the mature stages to negative anomalies, particularly in phase 6–8 (Figure 5C). The strong MJO activity led to the increase in the average RMM index of phase 4-5 in May 1998. The two robust MJO activities in June and July 2016 also enhanced the average RMM index of phase 1-2 during the decaying stages of the 2015/16 El Niño. Many studies had indicated that the robust MJO activity in May 1998 triggered the easterly anomalies, resulting in the termination of El Niño. After the MJO event, the Niño 3.4 index rapidly decayed from positive anomaly to negative anomaly (Takayabu et al., 1999; Miyakawa et al., 2017). Figure 2 showed that during the decaying stages of three super El Niño, when Niño 3.4 index turned from positive to negative, the MJO easterly existed in the eastern Pacific, which demonstrated that the MJO easterlies may accelerate the extinction of strong El Niño. Meanwhile, the MJO westerlies in April 1998 and June 2016 existed in the eastern Pacific, while the decaying rate of the Niño 3.4 index was prominently reduced. The anomalous MJO zonal wind amplitudes in the Indian Ocean and Pacific were weakened in the decaying stages, especially in the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño, while they were enhanced in the central and eastern Pacific, particularly in the 2015/16 (Figure 6). The MJO zonal wind amplitudes strengthened over the eastern Pacific, which may lead to the stronger 2015/16 El Niño. These results indicate that the MJO plays a critical role in the decaying stages of El Niño while it is necessary to further study the interaction between the MJO and the decaying stages of El Niño."
Taking the MJO progression of late we see this evolution occuring again with the lowest amplitude involved with progression across the Indian Ocean.
There are many areas of importance and interest here.
With ongoing discrepancies between all models on amplitude and progression / timing of this cycle its no surprise seeing associated differences within the outputs which will continue until this is worked out however there are patterns which are increasingly probable given recent progression and continuing feedback of El Ninò which I will discuss below.
As I discussed in my posts during January it's not overly shocking seeing the MJO decreasing in amplitude across the Indian Ocean given interesting recent developments involving the Indian Ocean Dipole.
Taking the data from my post in January the IOD looked to weaken markedly and be at neutral - potentially negative by this current timeframe.
Met Office
BOM
This weakening close to neutral has occured but a re-emergence into positive IOD conditions are occuring a bit earlier and stronger than those outlooks.
Newest Data courtesy of Met Office and BOM
Other seasonal models also trending into more of a noticeable +IOD
Looking at upcoming developments and revisiting my post from October
"I've enjoyed researching the PNA further extending more information than the bits I knew already and having found multiple papers there's a clear connection with the PNA and upstream blocks either Scandi Greenland or a mix of both which stems from Rossby Wave Breaking in most scenarios as we are and have witnessed lately."
We are seeing the most negative PNA since Late February.
Pairing this with the MJO in the Indian Ocean and the Maritimes in April in an El Ninò plus feedback typically seen in association with El Ninò
From now through Mid April we see the Atlantic Ridge regime which could extend across Ireland possibly the UK for a time, with this transitioning into blocking to our Northeast, North and most likely Greenland too.
As shown in my post from October and other occasions a negative PNA can lead to a cold - potentially significantly cold temperature anomaly from the Northeast-East
Recent GFS outputs.
Thanks for reading, KW
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Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-spring-has-sprung/?do=findComment&comment=5057116 -
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
Tonnes of fascinating evolutions occuring teleconnectively
I'll start by revisiting the Arctic Oscillation which I discussed here
On 02/04/2024 at 21:04, Kirkcaldy Weather said:With the teleconnective pairing of the move from a strong -NAO toward positive NAO values with recent stronger +AO values we'll see a focus of troughing and cyclonic developments more centering effects for Northwest and Northern UK and Ireland with a building of higher pressure having greater impacts toward southernmost UK and Europe.
Taking the data from the above post
Easy to see the -AO event has become even stronger than anticipated, the strongest positive values for a long time and stronger than during the whole entire winter season.
On 07/04/2024 at 19:34, Kirkcaldy Weather said:All fitting in ideally with expectations this is an excellent teleconnective configuration for significantly cold air to be entreched across the Arctic I expect helping the Arctic Ice too
We can watch as the extremely cold airmass associated with the Tropospheric Vortex begins to move from the Russian end of the Arctic across toward the Alaskan and Canadian end. Values at -28C 850hpa ongoing possibly some nearing -30C and still maintaining at least -24C at 850hpa upon the position shift.
On 07/04/2024 at 19:34, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Heading toward Mid April I'm watching for a plunge of Arctic air as troughing develops to the North of the UK and moves toward Scandinavia and Europe bringing a flow from the Northwest and North.
This can be noted from the above animations but delving slightly deeper.
Trends show the coldest conditions becoming centred across Europe.
Very fascinating setup hemispherically we've got a number of Rossby Wave Break Events.
I have already discussed most of these and some of their impacts here
Focusing on the North Pacific this looks the most impressive and set to continue development into an ongoing Rossby Wave Train - RWT
We also have a developing Rossby Wave Break Event from the North Atlantic through Europe and North Africa by Mid April 14th > 15th.
The right hand cut off low will be part of the significant cold temperatures across North Africa as discussed in my post in the global temperature thread however this will also bring a significant flash flood risk as a significant rainfall event occurs in Tunisia extending into Northeast and North Algeria.
To fully understand the upcoming developments beyond this timeframe we need to look in detail at recent and ongoing teleconnective developments.
To do this I'd like to revisit my posts from the start of January, January 20th and March 4th.
Beginning with the MJO and El Ninò, a lower amplitude cycle was always going to occur and upon doing research this is a common occurence during the latter stages of strong/super El Ninò Events with the following excerpts from
"The eastward propagation of MJO was also observed during the decaying stages of the three super El Niño events, but its intensity was weaker compared with the developing and mature stages."
"3.3 Decaying stages
The eastward propagation of the MJO could be observed during the decaying stages of the three super El Niño, but their intensity, duration and propagation distance were significantly weakened compared with those in the developing and mature stages (Figure 2). The spatiotemporal spectral analysis in Figure 3 also showed that power spectrum of intraseasonal eastward propagation during the decaying stages of the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Niño events were relatively stronger than those during the 1982/83 El Niño. The central periods of the eastward propagation for the MJO were mainly 40 days and 75 days during the decaying stages of 1997/98 El Niño, and it was primarily 40 days for the 2015/16 El Niño. However, there is no center of intraseasonal eastward propagation during the 1982/83 El Niño. The strong wave of eastward and westward propagation of lager than 90 days appeared in the decaying stages of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events, which may be induced by the conversion of the MJO energy to low-frequency energy of above 90 days (Li and Zhou, 1994; Li and Li, 1995). At the same time, the high-frequency wave activities of the eastward propagation were prominent at 20–30 days during the decaying stages of the 1997/98 El Niño. In addition, the eastward propagation center of zonal wave 2 was detected during the decaying stages of the 1982/83 El Niño.
The evolution and composite results of the RMM index during decaying stages of three super El Niño illustrated that the MJO activity in the decaying stages is significantly weaker than that in the developing and mature stages. The MJO intensity in the decaying stages was the weakest, especially for the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events (Figure 2; Figure 4; Figure 5). The RMM indexes of phase 4–8 during the decaying stages of the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Niño changed from positive anomaly in the mature stages to negative anomalies, particularly in phase 6–8 (Figure 5C). The strong MJO activity led to the increase in the average RMM index of phase 4-5 in May 1998. The two robust MJO activities in June and July 2016 also enhanced the average RMM index of phase 1-2 during the decaying stages of the 2015/16 El Niño. Many studies had indicated that the robust MJO activity in May 1998 triggered the easterly anomalies, resulting in the termination of El Niño. After the MJO event, the Niño 3.4 index rapidly decayed from positive anomaly to negative anomaly (Takayabu et al., 1999; Miyakawa et al., 2017). Figure 2 showed that during the decaying stages of three super El Niño, when Niño 3.4 index turned from positive to negative, the MJO easterly existed in the eastern Pacific, which demonstrated that the MJO easterlies may accelerate the extinction of strong El Niño. Meanwhile, the MJO westerlies in April 1998 and June 2016 existed in the eastern Pacific, while the decaying rate of the Niño 3.4 index was prominently reduced. The anomalous MJO zonal wind amplitudes in the Indian Ocean and Pacific were weakened in the decaying stages, especially in the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño, while they were enhanced in the central and eastern Pacific, particularly in the 2015/16 (Figure 6). The MJO zonal wind amplitudes strengthened over the eastern Pacific, which may lead to the stronger 2015/16 El Niño. These results indicate that the MJO plays a critical role in the decaying stages of El Niño while it is necessary to further study the interaction between the MJO and the decaying stages of El Niño."
Taking the MJO progression of late we see this evolution occuring again with the lowest amplitude involved with progression across the Indian Ocean.
There are many areas of importance and interest here.
With ongoing discrepancies between all models on amplitude and progression / timing of this cycle its no surprise seeing associated differences within the outputs which will continue until this is worked out however there are patterns which are increasingly probable given recent progression and continuing feedback of El Ninò which I will discuss below.
As I discussed in my posts during January it's not overly shocking seeing the MJO decreasing in amplitude across the Indian Ocean given interesting recent developments involving the Indian Ocean Dipole.
Taking the data from my post in January the IOD looked to weaken markedly and be at neutral - potentially negative by this current timeframe.
Met Office
BOM
This weakening close to neutral has occured but a re-emergence into positive IOD conditions are occuring a bit earlier and stronger than those outlooks.
Newest Data courtesy of Met Office and BOM
Other seasonal models also trending into more of a noticeable +IOD
Looking at upcoming developments and revisiting my post from October
"I've enjoyed researching the PNA further extending more information than the bits I knew already and having found multiple papers there's a clear connection with the PNA and upstream blocks either Scandi Greenland or a mix of both which stems from Rossby Wave Breaking in most scenarios as we are and have witnessed lately."
We are seeing the most negative PNA since Late February.
Pairing this with the MJO in the Indian Ocean and the Maritimes in April in an El Ninò plus feedback typically seen in association with El Ninò
From now through Mid April we see the Atlantic Ridge regime which could extend across Ireland possibly the UK for a time, with this transitioning into blocking to our Northeast, North and most likely Greenland too.
As shown in my post from October and other occasions a negative PNA can lead to a cold - potentially significantly cold temperature anomaly from the Northeast-East
Recent GFS outputs.
Thanks for reading, KW
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On 09/04/2024 at 03:48, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
This Rossby Wave Break Event is transitioning into an ongoing significant flash flood threat which intensifies particularly though not exclusively toward the Gulf Coast States over the next few days.
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Whilst there will be ongoing MJO feedback some additional significant teleconnective developments of late giving a global temperature evolution featuring noteworthy amounts of cold / below average - significantly below average temperature scenarios throughout both Southern and Northern Hemispheres.
The switch back into a strongly positive AAO [Antarctic Oscillation] which has been a persisting feature of this El Ninò will continue to have feedback across the Southern Hemisphere especially.
However the main influence I believe will be the recent evolution of the 2023-2024 Super El Ninò into more of a west based El Ninò which occurs with Western Pacific ENSO regions [3,3.4 &4] being noteably warmer than Eastern Pacific ENSO regions [1&2]
We can see this evolution via the NOAA ENSO SST animations upto April 3rd
And via the 15 day smoothed means from cyclonicwx
Doing my research I found the typical April temperature setup during a West Based El Ninò bearing in mind no two ENSO events are ever 100% identical and other teleconnective feedback also factors in, however it is a good match to the temperature evolutions from now through the next 10 days at least.
One of the most noteable below average anomalies is across Australia, there were many cold records broken following cyclone Megan last month and I wouldn't be one bit shocked seeing further records tied and/or broken.
Sticking in the Southern Hemisphere there are other noteworthy significant below average temperature anomalies in South America and South Africa.
Moving to the Northern Hemisphere some of the most significant cold events,
Alaska discussed here
A predominantly cold pattern moving across the Middle East intensifying as we head nearer to Mid April with significantly below average temperatures potentially record breaking I'd imagine.
850hpa and surface temperatures.
Dynamics involved see a new cut off low become very slow moving and maintaining intensity / reintensifying.
Significantly cold temperature anomaly across Tibet.
Cold - significantly cold anomalies will also develop across India particularly Northern India likely in part connecting to the Middle East cut off low / trough.
Multiple cold air outbreaks farther north toward Russia though this looks likely to trend into Higher pressure and associated above - significantly above average temperatures.
Northern Africa seeing a significant cold plunge this coming weekend
Predominantly cool - cold setup initially before a gradual transition into above average, though the below average temperatures in the south are associated with Monsoon rains still noteably colder than average with above average rainfalls.
Global view.
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Though the MJO is moving through the Indian Ocean into the Maritimes at a lower amplitude than of late still some very noteworthy developments.
A low currently moving through Japan will see moisture inflow registering the highest anomalously wet PWAT values
Fueled by a very strong Jet Streak
Following on an impressive Rossby Wave Break which connects to the MJO develops across the North Pacific with a cool sequence of cyclonic formation Northwest of Hawaii
Ongoing very snowy pattern across Alaska into the Pacific Northwest producing significantly below average temperatures at surface and upper levels with values upto 20C below average with multiple cold air plunges.
On 31/03/2024 at 22:28, Kirkcaldy Weather said:As the next cyclonic system moves from the Pacific Northwest into the West Coast this transitions into a Rossby Wave Break Event in roughly a weeks time April 6th - 7th with cut off lows on each American Coast and the ridging & blocking across Central America through Canada which will likely connect to the Greenland High.
This setup also gives a below average - significant in areas across the west and east with above average - significant central and Canada
This Rossby Wave Break Event is transitioning into an ongoing significant flash flood threat which intensifies particularly though not exclusively toward the Gulf Coast States over the next few days.
Looks like another Rossby Wave Break Event is likely by next weekend though exact positions of cut off lows and high pressure TBD
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On 31/03/2024 at 22:28, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
As the cut off low energy connects to trough developments from Canada which is part of ongoing MJO feedback paired with the fuel from the aforementioned high across East and Southeast America this will give a setup conducive for a storm into Northeast States from now through April week 1.
This is likely to become a snowy system on its Northwest and Northern flanks potentially significant totals.
Additional China Rainfall stats
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"This will see a large portion of Europe extending from Africa experiencing surface and upper level temperatures above - significantly above average I'd expect further temperature records potentially tied and broken."
Other noteworthy rainfall, snowfall and cold temperature records recently and during March for the Pakistan stats which I covered in multiple posts over in the global thread.
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On 03/04/2024 at 22:05, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
There is likely to be further cyclonic development during the beginning of next week with a dip in the upper level dynamics however discrepancies on the track with some indicating the Bay of Biscay wheras others pull it into this weekends cyclonic developments with movements toward the UK.
As this cyclonic system develops and crosses the UK there are a multitude of developing dynamics.
- Sharp Thermal Gradient.
- Significant flash flood risk with a significant rainfall event.
As this system continues to develop and undergo cyclogenisis as it crosses the UK there will be a sharp thermal gradient occuring on its northern and particularly Northwestern flanks, this combination will aid in the formation of a significant rainfall event with an associated significant flash flood risk, a few discrepancies on precise track between the models however South and Southeast Ireland, West and Northwest Wales, particular focus into Northwest England, and Scotland.
As the sharp thermal gradient continues to intensify this will turn the rain to snow particularly across higher routes however mixing at low levels can't be ruled out, I expect main accumulations at this stage to be across the Pennines and Scottish Highlands.
These below average temperatures will lead to a cold night on Tuesday with a frost a possibility.
Into midweek the PWAT values once again become highly anomalous, wouldn't surprise me if records are broken at upper levels of the atmosphere for moisture.
On 27/03/2024 at 03:06, Kirkcaldy Weather said:With further trough developments into the latter part of April week 1 in the North Atlantic this will bring an increasingly above average precipitation setup adjusting further north through Ireland and the UK.
Similar to Kathleen/Olivia this moisture inflow is tropically sourced.
We'll return into an above average temperature setup with this systems influence.
On 02/04/2024 at 21:04, Kirkcaldy Weather said:With the teleconnective pairing of the move from a strong -NAO toward positive NAO values with recent stronger +AO values we'll see a focus of troughing and cyclonic developments more centering effects for Northwest and Northern UK and Ireland with a building of higher pressure having greater impacts toward southernmost UK and Europe.
All fitting in ideally with expectations this is an excellent teleconnective configuration for significantly cold air to be entreched across the Arctic I expect helping the Arctic Ice too @Midlands Ice Age
Heading toward Mid April I'm watching for a plunge of Arctic air as troughing develops to the North of the UK and moves toward Scandinavia and Europe bringing a flow from the Northwest and North.
Thanks for Reading.
KW
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5055864-
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On 03/04/2024 at 22:05, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
There is likely to be further cyclonic development during the beginning of next week with a dip in the upper level dynamics however discrepancies on the track with some indicating the Bay of Biscay wheras others pull it into this weekends cyclonic developments with movements toward the UK.
As this cyclonic system develops and crosses the UK there are a multitude of developing dynamics.
- Sharp Thermal Gradient.
- Significant flash flood risk with a significant rainfall event.
As this system continues to develop and undergo cyclogenisis as it crosses the UK there will be a sharp thermal gradient occuring on its northern and particularly Northwestern flanks, this combination will aid in the formation of a significant rainfall event with an associated significant flash flood risk, a few discrepancies on precise track between the models however South and Southeast Ireland, West and Northwest Wales, particular focus into Northwest England, and Scotland.
As the sharp thermal gradient continues to intensify this will turn the rain to snow particularly across higher routes however mixing at low levels can't be ruled out, I expect main accumulations at this stage to be across the Pennines and Scottish Highlands.
These below average temperatures will lead to a cold night on Tuesday with a frost a possibility.
Into midweek the PWAT values once again become highly anomalous, wouldn't surprise me if records are broken at upper levels of the atmosphere for moisture.
On 27/03/2024 at 03:06, Kirkcaldy Weather said:With further trough developments into the latter part of April week 1 in the North Atlantic this will bring an increasingly above average precipitation setup adjusting further north through Ireland and the UK.
Similar to Kathleen/Olivia this moisture inflow is tropically sourced.
We'll return into an above average temperature setup with this systems influence.
On 02/04/2024 at 21:04, Kirkcaldy Weather said:With the teleconnective pairing of the move from a strong -NAO toward positive NAO values with recent stronger +AO values we'll see a focus of troughing and cyclonic developments more centering effects for Northwest and Northern UK and Ireland with a building of higher pressure having greater impacts toward southernmost UK and Europe.
All fitting in ideally with expectations this is an excellent teleconnective configuration for significantly cold air to be entreched across the Arctic I expect helping the Arctic Ice too @Midlands Ice Age
Heading toward Mid April I'm watching for a plunge of Arctic air as troughing develops to the North of the UK and moves toward Scandinavia and Europe bringing a flow from the Northwest and North.
Thanks for Reading.
KW
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Other noteworthy snow stats & events
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On 28/03/2024 at 21:23, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
Significant flash flood threat will develop across East and Southeast China as energies connecting to the MJO become slow moving troughing over this area likely Kelvin Wave - CCKW activities involved. This will extend into Taiwan and Japan.
This has occured via an extended severe weather outbreak, thoughts to all affected
On 31/03/2024 at 22:28, Kirkcaldy Weather said:This will be the fuel for a potential storm system with anomalously high PWAT bringing a potentially significant wintry precip event along the Northwestern and Northern flanks.
On 28/03/2024 at 21:23, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Great representation of the MJO feedback as a high builds across East and Southeast USA and the cut off low into the Southwest as discussed previously.
This cut off low producing noteworthy low temperatures and rain
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Other rainfall / dry records of late.
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Leading onto the above.
Signals here for a multitude of potential severe weather impacts with this cyclonic system during Friday and Saturday in particular, though I already discussed the flash flood threat I wanted to show that there is a tropical moisture inflow into this cyclone which can be tracked back into the Ninò style Jet with moisture inflow really from the Pacific and Mexico. This moisture inflow starts downstream into the severe weather and ongoing snowstorm in America which leads into an increasingly strengthening Jet Streak helping our cyclone to undergo deep cyclogenisis.
As the cyclogenisis occurs I'd expect wind warnings to be required heading into Saturday with potential for damaging gusts with current signals trending toward Ireland seeing the highest gusts initially with this area transferring possibly across the Irish Sea and impacting Northwest England and Scotland with high gusts continuing into Sunday in the North.
Beauty of a Rossby Wave Break Event as discussed prior this weekend in America.
There is likely to be further cyclonic development during the beginning of next week with a dip in the upper level dynamics however discrepancies on the track with some indicating the Bay of Biscay wheras others pull it into this weekends cyclonic developments with movements toward the UK.
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On 27/03/2024 at 03:06, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
As this initial troughing clears Eastward this will open the door to colder conditions from the North during April week 1 with current trends for this to be most prominent across Northern areas of the UK.
Starting with the above, with a Lowering Isotherm there will be multiple areas of snow particularly across Scotland mostly for higher elevations though mixing occuring at lower levels will be likely, with the first seeing the ongoing rain gradually becoming increasingly wintry > snowy then as a stronger area of frontal precip comes in during April 4th and 5th with the lowest Isotherm values a snow event occurs as this moves through Scotland.
On 27/03/2024 at 03:06, Kirkcaldy Weather said:With further trough developments into the latter part of April week 1 in the North Atlantic this will bring an increasingly above average precipitation setup adjusting further north through Ireland and the UK.
On 19/03/2024 at 21:11, Kirkcaldy Weather said:We'll begin to see an increasing influence from blocking further East which could push the Atlantic trough further west and perhaps an opportunity for a plume type setup given past experience and the time of year becoming more supportive.
During Friday and Saturday we get the first great example of the above as a cyclone begins to deepen west of Ireland with increasing high pressure across Europe to the South Southeast of the UK this gives a plume style setup with trends this will draw up highly anomalous PWAT values which indicates very heavy rainfall and a resulting flash flood risk.
This will see a large portion of Europe extending from Africa experiencing surface and upper level temperatures above - significantly above average I'd expect further temperature records potentially tied and broken.
Looking at the setup across the Northern Hemisphere by this weekend some of the most noteworthy events
- Developing Rossby Wave Break Event across America [see global thread for more info]
- As discussed above plume setup builds across Europe
- The -NAO event connects into the + Arctic Oscillation
With the teleconnective pairing of the move from a strong -NAO toward positive NAO values with recent stronger +AO values we'll see a focus of troughing and cyclonic developments more centering effects for Northwest and Northern UK and Ireland with a building of higher pressure having greater impacts toward southernmost UK and Europe.
This will also pair with the MJO progressing from our region of the globe ie Western Hemisphere, South America and Africa into the Indian Ocean although at a lower amplitude again feedback shows cyclonic systems trend more Northwest and Northern trackways and I would suggest further plume opportunities are plausible given feedback signal of high pressure to our East and Northeast with similar trough placements to our west and southwest most likely.
Cheers. KW
️
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5054233 -
On 27/03/2024 at 03:06, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
As this initial troughing clears Eastward this will open the door to colder conditions from the North during April week 1 with current trends for this to be most prominent across Northern areas of the UK.
Starting with the above, with a Lowering Isotherm there will be multiple areas of snow particularly across Scotland mostly for higher elevations though mixing occuring at lower levels will be likely, with the first seeing the ongoing rain gradually becoming increasingly wintry > snowy then as a stronger area of frontal precip comes in during April 4th and 5th with the lowest Isotherm values a snow event occurs as this moves through Scotland.
On 27/03/2024 at 03:06, Kirkcaldy Weather said:With further trough developments into the latter part of April week 1 in the North Atlantic this will bring an increasingly above average precipitation setup adjusting further north through Ireland and the UK.
On 19/03/2024 at 21:11, Kirkcaldy Weather said:We'll begin to see an increasing influence from blocking further East which could push the Atlantic trough further west and perhaps an opportunity for a plume type setup given past experience and the time of year becoming more supportive.
During Friday and Saturday we get the first great example of the above as a cyclone begins to deepen west of Ireland with increasing high pressure across Europe to the South Southeast of the UK this gives a plume style setup with trends this will draw up highly anomalous PWAT values which indicates very heavy rainfall and a resulting flash flood risk.
This will see a large portion of Europe extending from Africa experiencing surface and upper level temperatures above - significantly above average I'd expect further temperature records potentially tied and broken.
Looking at the setup across the Northern Hemisphere by this weekend some of the most noteworthy events
- Developing Rossby Wave Break Event across America [see global thread for more info]
- As discussed above plume setup builds across Europe
- The -NAO event connects into the + Arctic Oscillation
With the teleconnective pairing of the move from a strong -NAO toward positive NAO values with recent stronger +AO values we'll see a focus of troughing and cyclonic developments more centering effects for Northwest and Northern UK and Ireland with a building of higher pressure having greater impacts toward southernmost UK and Europe.
This will also pair with the MJO progressing from our region of the globe ie Western Hemisphere, South America and Africa into the Indian Ocean although at a lower amplitude again feedback shows cyclonic systems trend more Northwest and Northern trackways and I would suggest further plume opportunities are plausible given feedback signal of high pressure to our East and Northeast with similar trough placements to our west and southwest most likely.
Cheers. KW
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Active setups emerging in America and Europe with feedback of recent MJO progression and IMO very likely involving feedback of the Super El Ninò peak temperatures.
Starting in Europe we are seeing a highly above average temperature setup with records being broken and the first 30C recordings of the year across multiple days, again its not too surprising IMO given MJO and El Ninò feedback.
This will be the fuel for a potential storm system with anomalously high PWAT bringing a potentially significant wintry precip event along the Northwestern and Northern flanks.
America
On 24/03/2024 at 19:27, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Accompanying severe weather and flash flood threat progressing East, Northeast and Southeastwards with trends into a new low near the Carolinas coast into Thursday which might increase these threats.
On 24/03/2024 at 19:27, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Next cyclonic system moving into the Pacific Northwest and West Coast from Weds into Thursday bringing the next threat of low elevation flash flooding and the next snowfall event again high totals being signalled for the Sierras, this will transition into another system [cut off low] and move into SoCal during next weekend with low elevation flash flood threat and potential for snow at higher elevation.
On 28/03/2024 at 21:23, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Great representation of the MJO feedback as a high builds across East and Southeast USA and the cut off low into the Southwest as discussed previously.
As the cut off low energy connects to trough developments from Canada which is part of ongoing MJO feedback paired with the fuel from the aforementioned high across East and Southeast America this will give a setup conducive for a storm into Northeast States from now through April week 1.
This is likely to become a snowy system on its Northwest and Northern flanks potentially significant totals.
The next potentially significant flash flood threat will also arrive with this system particularly north central states into Northeast states dependant on storm intensity and track with some discrepancies within modelling.
As the next cyclonic system moves from the Pacific Northwest into the West Coast this transitions into a Rossby Wave Break Event in roughly a weeks time April 6th - 7th with cut off lows on each American Coast and the ridging & blocking across Central America through Canada which will likely connect to the Greenland High.
This setup also gives a below average - significant in areas across the west and east with above average - significant central and Canada
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As the Greenland High builds this will interact with an elongating Tropospheric Vortex from Alaska across a large part of the Arctic resulting in a significantly cold setup with 850hpa temperatures of at least -16 with indication of -18s too across Iceland with significantly below average temperatures at Surface and upper levels.
Spring 2024 -> Northern Hemisphere Low Temperature & Snowfall Reports & Records (Social Media Content)
in Spring Weather Discussion
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