Kirkcaldy Weather
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Posts posted by Kirkcaldy Weather
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Recapping this weeks events.
Scotland snow
As the cyclone developed across Northwestern France there is damage indicative of a tornado
As the system moved across Southwest England into Wales it produced a snow event as discussed.
Wind gusts from the main cyclone into Thursday reached 99kmh into the South Coast of England with an 89kmh value as the winds moved across Southeastern England.
On 24/03/2024 at 19:27, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Lots of areas with flash flood risks at lower elevations and many snowfall events predominantly at higher elevations though not exclusively.
Morocco, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, UK, France, Alpine regions, Italy etc.
A pattern which has been common in this El Ninò with a strong Jet Streak into Northwest Spain and Portugal bringing a heightened flash flood risk and an overall Southerly tracking Jet.
Looks like the strong Jet Streak has helped to produce what appears as a strong waterspout in Portugal
No surprises seeing a Red warning covering Avalanche danger in the Alps of Switzerland and Spanish alpine regions with the plethora of huge snowfalls including the current event which will give totals upto and above 100CMs. Further snow events are likely during April week 1 and potentially afterward.
"The Southern Alps also experienced a new significant snow episode. This is also the 4th major snow episode in the space of five weeks . 50 centimeters of snow fell in the Isola 2000 resort . Since February 24, the accumulation of new snow has reached 2.76 meters at 1860 m altitude."
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Stunning
Looking like the pressure will be at -> near record strength into the first days of April across Greenland an absolute beauty of a negative NAO overall and values now look to exceed those of January.
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Significant flash flood threat will develop across East and Southeast China as energies connecting to the MJO become slow moving troughing over this area likely Kelvin Wave - CCKW activities involved. This will extend into Taiwan and Japan.
With ongoing feedback of recent MJO progression the next cold air outbreaks are beginning with a classic representation of a Ridge-Trough-Ridge-Trough setup, these cold air outbreaks are developing across Asia and Russia with further significant snowfalls and significantly below average temperatures in areas affected during the last month roughly > Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Krgyzstan, North India, Nepal, Tibet, Southeast Kazakhstan.
Also snow events along the Russia & Georgian border and Turkey.
Great representation of the MJO feedback as a high builds across East and Southeast USA and the cut off low into the Southwest as discussed previously.
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On 21/03/2024 at 20:02, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
Turkey being one of the main regions seeing huge snowfall amounts as multiple cut off lows move through with the 1st being part of a Rossby Wave Break Event which I've discussed in a few posts
On 21/03/2024 at 20:02, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Over the next 10 days a large swathe of Turkey will recieve significant amounts of snow with an area particularly toward the Southeast likely to see upwards of 100+ CM
On 21/03/2024 at 20:02, Kirkcaldy Weather said:As part of these rains - cut off low energy moves North Northeast this will bring a flash flood risk initially from East China into Japan
On 19/03/2024 at 02:14, Kirkcaldy Weather said:During Friday and into the Weekend a new system will move into the west coast with a new round of significant snowfall for the Sierras and the West > Northwestern States having a generally snowy & cold setup.
On 24/03/2024 at 19:27, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Impressive storm with significant snowfall with a few areas trending for particularly high totals
- South Dakatoa and Nebraska especially near their border
- As the low continues toward Lake Superior areas close to the Lake.
On 21/03/2024 at 20:02, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Per recent MJO progression feedback and IOBW warm phase this will continue a cold > significantly cold temperature setup extending across Australia
On 23/03/2024 at 03:00, Kirkcaldy Weather said:We also have a slow moving cyclone to the Northeast of Madagascar this will create a flash flood threat from Northeast Madagascar then extending across the Eastern portions of Madagascar.
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Ahead of the main deep cyclone there is a developing cyclonic Centre from Northwest France as this continues to move into the UK with a Lowering isotherm on its Western & Northwestern flank there is potential for a snow event particularly across Wales, most of this likely at higher elevations though cannot be discounted at lower levels too.
This trend was evident on the ensembles last night, still damaging wind threat into the South Coast but a concerning trend with a main damaging wind risk centering into Southeast England so I'd think warnings will cover the South Coast as discussed but possibly higher category warning criteria for Southeast England Thursday
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On 29/01/2024 at 14:25, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
We'll continue seeing patterns which link to El Ninò throughout March and I'd favour potentially the first few weeks or so of April, following that time it's a gradual move into ENSO Neutral with some themes continuing of heading into La Ninà by late spring and particularly Summer 2024.
Excellent
As we head into April blocking across the Atlantic, Azores and the Canadian Maritimes will transition into a strengthening Greenland High potentially a cut off high, no surprises here as we are seeing the strongest negative North Atlantic Oscillation values since Early through Mid January which was a prior timeframe which became dominantly focused with a Greenland High, this is also fitting into feedback of the MJO progressing through the Pacific and beginning to cross our part of the Globe including South America, Africa and the Western Hemisphere overall.
Paired with the typical El Ninò + Stratospheric warming [inc SSW] feedback its bang on.
Adding more details I'll start with my comments here
On 22/03/2024 at 01:54, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Worth paying close attention it's more the secondary system as it merges with the 1st cyclonic developments which then look to begin rapid cyclogenisis particularly toward March 27th close to the South Southwest of Ireland initially with some indicators of pressure even having cyclogenisis into the 950hpa values.
Quite a lot of developments over the next couple of days.
As areas of precip move into Scotland currently and through this morning & afternoon this will fall as snow, heavy in places and even at modest - potentially low levels as a supportive isotherm resides across Scotland from the previous system in the past few days.
During the morning there will be increasing instability as the troughing starts to intensify, this will bring widespread showers however the main thundery element will be most prominent across Ireland, Southwest England into Wales with indicators that a tornado is possible in the latter areas.
Looks like the cyclogenisis will take the pressure into the 950hpa range [a previous GFS had 948hpa]
Heading into Thursday the threat of possibly damaging wind gusts increases from the Celtic Sea, Bay of Biscay and moves into the English Channel. I'd expect a wind warning covering the South Coast of England for Thursday.
As this initial troughing clears Eastward this will open the door to colder conditions from the North during April week 1 with current trends for this to be most prominent across Northern areas of the UK.
With further trough developments into the latter part of April week 1 in the North Atlantic this will bring an increasingly above average precipitation setup adjusting further north through Ireland and the UK.
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Deja Vu
''There is a small chance that power cuts will occur and other services, such as mobile phone coverage, may be affected
There is a slight chance that some rural communities could become cut off
Where flooding occurs, there is a slight chance of delays or cancellations to train and bus services
Spray and flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures
There is a small chance of travel delays on roads with some stranded vehicles and passengers, along with delayed or cancelled rail and air travel
Issued: 10:53 (UTC) on Sun 24 Mar 2024
A band of persistent rain and snow will move north across Scotland overnight Monday into Tuesday. At low elevations (below 150-200 metres) this will fall mostly as rain, with 35-45 mm falling quite widely over Fife, Angus and Aberdeenshire and perhaps more than 50 mm in some locations with surface water causing some spray on roads. At moderate elevations (above 150-200 metres) snow is more likely, mainly 1-2 cm of slushy deposits, but 2-5 cm possible in some places affecting higher transport routes. At higher elevations (above 300 metres ) 10-20 cm may fall causing travel issues on higher routes."
I'll be surprised if it doesn't get upgraded to an Amber and possibilities of extension further south.
Really cool meteorological dynamics involved here with a connection of Jet Stream energy combining to an ever increasing unstable atmosphere.
The SRH values give a great insight
As the atmosphere continues to destabilise we will have an increasingly Lowering isotherm from the East Northeast feeding into precipitation, combining the above dynamical aspects this will act to switch the rain into snow and given such a volatile atmosphere the trends are there for high precip rates ie snowfall rates.
As this system continues to develop there might be a spell with blizzard type conditions as an area of gales form initially toward the North Sea near Fife also toward the Tay Estuary, this could then transfer further Northeast perhaps nearing Aberdeen. Then across the Moray Firth into Inverness.
With it being late March it's just naturally less likely for snow to lay however I expect many of us across Fife, Angus, Perth and Kinross extending into Aberdeenshire seeing at least a few cm is a reasonable shout with surprises a high possibility particularly where the high snow rates set up.
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On 19/03/2024 at 02:14, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
As this system progresses East Northeastwards there is potential for a number of possible significant and severe weather events with a snowstorm on the northern and Northwestern flanks [Northern States] as it utilises the significant cold upper and surface level temperatures which are pulled in from Canada, and a significant flash flood risk paired to a potential severe weather outbreak on the Southern and Southeastern flanks across the heart of America progressing East and Northeast. Current timing is approximately March 24th through 29th.
Further excellent consistency within the models.
Impressive storm with significant snowfall with a few areas trending for particularly high totals
- South Dakatoa and Nebraska especially near their border
- As the low continues toward Lake Superior areas close to the Lake.
Accompanying severe weather and flash flood threat progressing East, Northeast and Southeastwards with trends into a new low near the Carolinas coast into Thursday which might increase these threats.
This storm is pushing the snowfall as far South as Mexico with further snowfall potentially significant totals toward Chihuahua.
This storm will also draw up anomalously dry air when combining with gusty winds this brings the next fire risk.
On 21/03/2024 at 20:02, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Good model consistency with this system and a trend for the troughing which moves across the Great Lakes and connects to the cut off low to produce a swathe of higher snowfall totals from Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois which moves across the Great Lakes and as the energy connection occurs the trend for a significant snow event continues to intensify toward Northeast America.
One of the areas at risk of highest precip rates and higher flash flood risk continues to be through Maryland, Delaware, Philadelphia with particular focus into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island with this gradually continuing North Northeast into Maine.
Recap of this systems impacts.
Next cyclonic system moving into the Pacific Northwest and West Coast from Weds into Thursday bringing the next threat of low elevation flash flooding and the next snowfall event again high totals being signalled for the Sierras, this will transition into another system [cut off low] and move into SoCal during next weekend with low elevation flash flood threat and potential for snow at higher elevation.
As discussed in my post above the active pattern across Europe and Africa to name a few is continuing, this isnt too surprising given its combining recent MJO feedback paired with the MJO currently crossing this region of the globe which will further boost cyclonic development. We've got the cut off low from the Rossby Wave Break Event merging to new cyclonic developments in the Atlantic close to Ireland and further cyclonic developments feeding into this merger creating a deep cyclone again from the Atlantic close to & across Ireland.
Lots of areas with flash flood risks at lower elevations and many snowfall events predominantly at higher elevations though not exclusively.
Morocco, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, UK, France, Alpine regions, Italy etc.
A pattern which has been common in this El Ninò with a strong Jet Streak into Northwest Spain and Portugal bringing a heightened flash flood risk and an overall Southerly tracking Jet.
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12 hours ago, Ravelin said:
Cloud cuckoo land surely.
It's a setup I'd expected to occur at some point this month as one of my top analogues continues to be 2012>2013
The classic negatively tilted trough with sliding low as became a noteable feature in 2013
Models still getting a handle on this particular evolution however a snow event becoming increasingly likely during March 25th through 27th IMO.
A plethora of potential hazards within this setup.
Significant snowfall
Possible flash flooding at lower levels on the southern end of the boundary
We go back into sub zero windchill values which gradually increase with a strengthening Southeast > East > (Northeasterly) in some parts.
Possible gales from the North Sea.
Some of the models get the boundary far enough south that with the initial interaction a wide area of Scotland sees at least falling snow.
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Increased pressure gradient due to a strong high to the South Southeast of South Africa will create a supportive moisture flow from the Mozambique Channel
An increasing flash flood risk via this increased moisture into Mozambique particularly Southeast, South Mozambique extending into Eswatini and perhaps parts of Southeastern South Africa.
We also have a slow moving cyclone to the Northeast of Madagascar this will create a flash flood threat from Northeast Madagascar then extending across the Eastern portions of Madagascar.
Most of the above average temperatures are across the DRC with heavier showers and storms, this looks to continue with above average temperatures extending across Angola and Zambia significant in some parts also some heat into Botswana and Namibia with the areas discussed above being below average perhaps significantly so and also Southwest South Africa
West and Northwest Madagascar also above average.
With ongoing feedback of a switch in SAM phase, a serious of systems will move across & near New Zealand during week 4 of March bringing substantial rainfalls particularly across West + Southwest New Zealand with an increased threat of flash flooding.
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On 19/03/2024 at 21:11, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
Into the 22nd we start to see quite a significant pattern shift.
On 19/03/2024 at 21:11, Kirkcaldy Weather said:During the 22nd we'll see a cold front moving through and this begins the pattern shift to that of a colder pattern during week 4 of March.
There goes the cold front sweeping through
Gales across the North and Northwest though a gradual increase across the UK and Ireland.
All of the UK and Ireland experiencing sub zero windchill values.
On 19/03/2024 at 21:11, Kirkcaldy Weather said:In roughly a weeks time we will start to see the feedback of ongoing MJO progression across the Pacific, phases 6 and 7 with new trough developments from Greenland tilted negatively toward the west of Ireland and the Atlantic
Worth paying close attention it's more the secondary system as it merges with the 1st cyclonic developments which then look to begin rapid cyclogenisis particularly toward March 27th close to the South Southwest of Ireland initially with some indicators of pressure even having cyclogenisis into the 950hpa values.
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On 15/03/2024 at 21:59, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
Another significant below average anomaly likely during March 18th - 23rd Approx as a slow moving cut off low moves across India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand bringing heavy rains.
"Incessant rain since the early hours of Wednesday brought down the maximum temperature in Kolkata by a whopping 13ºC below normal as the meteorological department forecast continued inclement weather in the city until Thursday.
Wednesday's maximum temperature in Kolkata was 21.1ºC, the department said. This is the second lowest maximum temperature recorded in March since 1970. The previous lowest maximum temperature was 20.3ºC recorded on 13 March 2003, the department said."
As part of these rains - cut off low energy moves North Northeast this will bring a flash flood risk initially from East China into Japan
There is also a significant snow event ongoing from the China and Korea Border
As a new cut off low begins to develop this will bring a new flash flood risk with more of a northward area covering more of Korea and once again Japan, some of this could fall as snow.
On 19/03/2024 at 02:14, Kirkcaldy Weather said:From Thursday 21st March through next Tuesday approx, a cut off low will develop across the Gulf States with an initial significant flash flood risk in Texas which then moves across the Gulf States ie Louisianna and Florida, as this cut off low connects at least for a time to the troughing in Canada and into the Great Lakes the significant flash flood risk will move up the East Coast with the Carolinas currently looking a higher risk area for flooding though a generalised threat across all of the Eastern coastal States into the Canadian Maritimes. This flash flood risk will also move into the Bahamas.
Good model consistency with this system and a trend for the troughing which moves across the Great Lakes and connects to the cut off low to produce a swathe of higher snowfall totals from Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois which moves across the Great Lakes and as the energy connection occurs the trend for a significant snow event continues to intensify toward Northeast America.
One of the areas at risk of highest precip rates and higher flash flood risk continues to be through Maryland, Delaware, Philadelphia with particular focus into New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island with this gradually continuing North Northeast into Maine.
On 13/03/2024 at 20:54, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Significant flash flood event becoming increasingly likely from March 18th - 23rd Approx as a cut off low develops and moves across parts of the Middle East accompanied by a strong Jet Streak which looks to increase precip intensity.
Main severe risk currently by March 19th & 20th close by the Iraq, Turkey and Iran border.
On 16/03/2024 at 18:44, Kirkcaldy Weather said:As covered in recent posts with many cut off lows plus a main Tropospheric Vortex lobe moving into the Kara Sea and Russia this is an excellent pattern for multiple significant snowfall events and overall large snowfall coverage across parts of the Middle East, large swathes of Asia and Russia + Siberia during the next few weeks.
Turkey being one of the main regions seeing huge snowfall amounts as multiple cut off lows move through with the 1st being part of a Rossby Wave Break Event which I've discussed in a few posts
Over the next 10 days a large swathe of Turkey will recieve significant amounts of snow with an area particularly toward the Southeast likely to see upwards of 100+ CM
As a new cut off low moves through parts of the Middle East and connects to the cut off low[s] and developing troughing in Turkey this will bring the next significant flash flood risk across similar areas to the recent event ie Iran and Iraq plus along their border during March 24th through 26th.
Some of this precip is likely to fall as snow in Iran.
Per recent MJO progression feedback and IOBW warm phase this will continue a cold > significantly cold temperature setup extending across Australia
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See my posts in the global thread for detailed discussions on Megan.
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Excellent
Taking all the following points and composites in the above post we are seeing the manner in which the upcoming pattern shifts will transpire.
On 15/03/2024 at 21:54, Kirkcaldy Weather said:With further feedback including that of phases 4 and 5 we'll see a number of noteworthy developments.
On 15/03/2024 at 21:54, Kirkcaldy Weather said:The next cyclone to approach Ireland and the UK will transition into a cut off low which heads through Spain and into Northwest and Northern Africa, likely rossby wave breaking involved.
On 15/03/2024 at 21:54, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Per the above there will be opportunity for the Atlantic - Azores High to ridge across more southern parts of the UK and Ireland.
Another main aspect of phases 4 through 5 is the building of a strong Pacific > Alaska > Arctic Ridge and Blocking regime which extends into Greenland likely more of a -AO during this sequence.
On 12/03/2024 at 03:07, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Pairing with feedback of the Super El Ninò we can see this is supportive of a warmer pattern including the development of high pressure from Africa which extends into Europe again bringing increased temperatures at surface and 850hpa levels.
On 12/03/2024 at 03:07, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Linking this to the feedback of phases 2 through 3 during February and March again nice representation here for an above average temperature setup.
Starting at these focal points here we see as expected an above average temperature setup extending from Africa through parts of Europe with significantly above average temperatures at surface and upper levels perhaps some temperature records.
Here's the Rossby Wave Break Event with the high pressure and dual cut off lows
As the High ridges into the UK and Ireland this brings a period of significantly above average temperatures at surface and upper levels, perhaps enough for some temperature records at these levels
Into the 22nd we start to see quite a significant pattern shift.
As a system which began as the troughing across Canada across the Great Lakes and currently into the Canadian Maritimes per MJO feedback as discussed, begins to move over the Atlantic high this will bring stormy winds particularly toward the Faroe Islands with an accompanying strong Jet Streak and as this system continues Eastward these stronger winds will begin to extend into the UK
During the 22nd we'll see a cold front moving through and this begins the pattern shift to that of a colder pattern during week 4 of March.
As thickness levels lower and with the 528 dam and below air being present across the UK and Ireland this will cause precip to turn wintry with a risk of snow for all regions of the UK and Ireland ie Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England with most across higher elevations though mixing even to low levels cannot be discounted, probably a setup where West and Northwest Scotland does well for snowfall. Similar to the snowfall risk areas the frost risk will be most prominent further Northwest and North though all areas of the UK and Ireland seeing below average temperatures at surface and upper levels.
This initial storm system will produce significant snow events across Iceland and Norway.
As this system descends it will bring a new significant snow event for the Alps.. Swiss Alps especially and a heightened risk of a heavy precip event into Slovenia which could be rain and or snow so a risk of flash flooding needs considering, these events are from the 23rd through 26th.
In roughly a weeks time we will start to see the feedback of ongoing MJO progression across the Pacific, phases 6 and 7 with new trough developments from Greenland tilted negatively toward the west of Ireland and the Atlantic
We'll begin to see an increasing influence from blocking further East which could push the Atlantic trough further west and perhaps an opportunity for a plume type setup given past experience and the time of year becoming more supportive.
So we're seeing a below average temperature setup for week 4 of March
This is also ongoing feedback from the IOBW warm phase which supports a colder setup during March.
Also factoring in the overall season of stratospheric developments including multiple stratospheric warming events which I'd like to revisit my comments here
On 27/02/2024 at 21:05, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Also worth noting once more with the precursor patterns continuing we've got good signals for a new reversal of zonal winds at 10hpa (possibly 50hpa though no agreement on that just yet) with this looking like a stronger reversal than the previous 2 of winter 2023-2024.
This was a significant SSW event with a significant reversal of zonal winds
10hpa values exceeding -20 m/s
Plus a reversal at 50hpa
Given recent and current MJO progression paired onto weak vortex events again further excellent and expected correlation
Impressive cold setup this with multiple minus double digit temperatures in Iceland and Scandinavia which are of particular note.
Cheers KW
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Some significant systems developing into America this week and beyond.
From Thursday 21st March through next Tuesday approx, a cut off low will develop across the Gulf States with an initial significant flash flood risk in Texas which then moves across the Gulf States ie Louisianna and Florida, as this cut off low connects at least for a time to the troughing in Canada and into the Great Lakes the significant flash flood risk will move up the East Coast with the Carolinas currently looking a higher risk area for flooding though a generalised threat across all of the Eastern coastal States into the Canadian Maritimes. This flash flood risk will also move into the Bahamas.
During Friday and into the Weekend a new system will move into the west coast with a new round of significant snowfall for the Sierras and the West > Northwestern States having a generally snowy & cold setup.
These patterns are feedback from recent MJO phases as discussed in various posts plus the MJO moving across the Pacific and this part of the globe in general during this timeframe.
As this system progresses East Northeastwards there is potential for a number of possible significant and severe weather events with a snowstorm on the northern and Northwestern flanks [Northern States] as it utilises the significant cold upper and surface level temperatures which are pulled in from Canada, and a significant flash flood risk paired to a potential severe weather outbreak on the Southern and Southeastern flanks across the heart of America progressing East and Northeast. Current timing is approximately March 24th through 29th.
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^ Megan currently making landfall close to the most Eastern of the Pellew Islands she will make landfall on the mainland in the early hours of Monday around the Robinson River with severe flash flooding rains stretching from the Pellew Islands across the Northern Territory and Northwest > Northeast Queensland, she will also bring severe damaging winds again particularly close to the centre around the Pellew Islands into the Robinson River and still some significant winds as she moves westwards inland before gradually weakening although the severe rains will extend well inland and westwards.
There will also be significant flash flood potential from heavy rains / storms around the East Southeast Coastline including a strong front from a system moving into New Zealand.
The outer bands of Tropical Storm 18S will move into the Northwestern coastline of Western Australia in the next few days.
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On 11/03/2024 at 02:57, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
No real surprise seeing such an active pattern particularly across the Eastern portion of the Indian Ocean given the higher amplitude passage of the MJO.
This will generate further cyclones again these are likely to be tropical in nature with one close to the Northwestern Coast of Australia and at least one other which moves into the Arafura Sea and potentially sits in the waters with regions between Queensland and the Northern Territory.
Models are really having a difficult time with this system which has been named Megan.
Still no real consistency on landfall timing and locale within the modelling with some having landfall around the Pellew Islands Tomorrow whereas a more easterly landfall is favoured by some including the GEM even into Tuesday.
As covered in recent posts with many cut off lows plus a main Tropospheric Vortex lobe moving into the Kara Sea and Russia this is an excellent pattern for multiple significant snowfall events and overall large snowfall coverage across parts of the Middle East, large swathes of Asia and Russia + Siberia during the next few weeks.
April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
7.6C and 131.8MM please