Kirkcaldy Weather

February 13

"With a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation there will be cold outbreaks within the Northern Hemisphere and given these are stronger values than both previous events I wouldnt be surprised if the conditions are also a bit colder overall."

Here comes one of those cold outbreaks as a high from Canada moves southwards which can be seen with the MJO phase 7 data

Impressive temperature anomalies associated with this even into Texas and Mexico, will we see record cold I certainly wouldn't rule out records being tied / broken in some areas.

As the very active El Ninò setups continue we've also got a snowmaking system heading through the Great Lakes possibly giving a top up into the Northeast too, and another dual cyclonic setup with further flash flood risks in California, Pacific Northwest, Gulf States particularly Florida and into the Caribbean. Further significant snow for the Sierras also.

The southwards moving Canadian high will transition toward the typical -PNA and influence from MJO phase 6, this currently looks to occur by February 20th with strength and duration of the high TBD.

Across the other end of the Northern Hemisphere we see a 2nd Cold air outbreak which will descend across Asia bringing significant > extreme cold anomalies and significant > extreme snow.

February 12

February 12

2 flashes 2 rumbles and one was in the forth decently close really

February 12

Proper wintry radar on the go, thought I'd heard a Rumble there and a bit of hail mixed in.

This cam about to be plastered

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February 12

Wanted to do a follow On from my post here as it carries importance why we are seeing the 500hpa evolutions upcoming.

''We might have a brief re entry of phase 6 during week 1 of February though there is no complete agreement for this, however it's relatively similar to the setups currently materialising should it occur."

This is an occasion where the MJO Obs are of great value as there can be differences when solely focusing on the model predictions and I do tend to trust the OBS in these situations.

We see that we did briefly go into phase 6 in February week 1

Very much in line with expectations with the typical El Ninò storm track which extends into the Atlantic this in turn will see further Rossby Wave Breaks which have potential to bring flash flooding as the wave break low forms and further significant snow in multiple countries.

The positive NAO also playing into these setups nicely, these are typical temperatures with a positive NAO but give fairly good representation of the positions of low and high pressure

This also shows the strong ridging and high pressure developments into the UK which connects into the negative PNA with further developments of high pressure to the East of USA and the Maritimes.

February 11

February 11

Fascinating event this, with the last influence of the snowstorm which has split into multiple cyclonic centres with one swinging back in for the Northwest and West of Scotland GFS and GEM give a good idea definitely potential here for significant accumulations it's mainly across higher routes but I'd say we can't rule out some mixing down to lower levels and Scandinavia and Iceland getting possibly serious amounts especially as these depths are occuring within 1-2 days

As the next influence from an Atlantic cyclone transfers into a Rossby Wave Break by Mid February there could be a risk of flash flooding moving into Scotland as the wave break low pushes in, still a few differentials exactly where the wave break occurs which will influence where the low position occurs

Note the 1st Rossby Wave Break has occured by this timeframe and the low sits between the Mediterranean and Aegean.

2nd Rossby Wave Break mid February sending another wave break cut off low into Italy and the Mediterranean. Its interesting as this is causing discrepancies with regards to how strong the associated high pressure develops into Scandinavia

This brings more big falls of snow into the same areas in Scandinavia and the potential flash flooding within the UK.

During week 3 of February still looking at a bit of drier weather as a ridge and connecting high pressure from Spain through the UK into Greenland and Alaska.

The period from week 3 into week 4 of February has always been the next point of interest for possible wintry conditions it does seem this is more -AO driven initially then we look for the NAO switching more negative plus how fast and at what amplitude the MJO begins moving across the west Hemisphere and Africa at.

With a retrograding blocking high pairing to an increasingly negative North Atlantic Oscillation and retrograding trough into Scandinavia winter definitely ain't over

February 10

Arizona doing excellent from this pattern

As covered in my post here the same cyclone which brought incredible amounts across Nova Scotia also became a snowstorm across the UK and Ireland

I also discussed the liklihood this same cyclone would give snow in Morocco

February 10

On 23/01/2024 at 18:12, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

From the last days of Jan through week 1 of Feb this will have a significantly wet anomaly for California up the US west coast into the Pacific Northwest and moving into the Southwest States and Mexico. Some of the precip will fall as snow in higher terrains such as the Sierras.

Yeah just a tad anomalous

Numerous high wind gusts particularly in mountain regions

These high rain and snow amounts haven't been all bad news though with a needed boost for reservoirs and some snowpacks running a few months ahead of usual

Arizona getting very impressive amounts in this setup

On 06/02/2024 at 14:34, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Also increased threat of flash flooding into Portugal and extending across southern Europe in association with an increasingly strengthening Jet Stream in this region also within that timeframe."

As southern parts of the UK remain in a milder sector of the storm and connected to the section of the Jet Stream mentioned above the flash flood risk could extend into England perhaps Wales with a chance of thunderstorms. This flash flood threat looks to also move into Morocco places such as Casablanca and Rabat with some snow as it moves further inland.

February 10

February 9

Cambrian

Thanks for this post @Cambrian I'd like to highlight a few points with the 1st being the tendency for Scandinavian trough developments, this is a common feature of El Ninò using these from some of my recent posts

And focusing in on February tendencies with El Ninò

You have no idea how much I appreciate your optimism as my interest in this thread overall was dwindling somewhat with endless pages of moany vibes which should really be for the moans thread but hey ho, I get the despondency of those yet to see snow however there HAVE been events fitting of winter during both winter months thus far.

We continue to see excellent representation of exactly what you'd expect given recent, current and probable upcoming MJO progression

Taking the CFS weeklies as a great example the surface temperatures are again corresponding with what is common with El Ninò overall & El Ninò in February

Accompanying precipitation anoms are also where you'd expect to be in Feb

With a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation there will be cold outbreaks within the Northern Hemisphere and given these are stronger values than both previous events I wouldnt be surprised if the conditions are also a bit colder overall.

Factor in the +PNA its what I'd expect

February 9

Ballater is the place to be this time possibility of anywhere upto a foot to come still

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February 9

Gonna be a fascinating watch this, on the southern end we've got another significant flash flood risk spanning multiple days and states (plus further potential tornadic events) even into the Carolinas with many possible outcomes with regards to snow along the Northwest and northern flanks with the GFS going all in on a major event into Northeast states

February 9

Cheers for getting this years thread running with excellent contributions @WeatherArc

I've been covering the setups going into classic El Ninò 500hpa evolutions and this has managed to give a few tornadoes out in California

Some ratings on other recent tors and hail statistics

Tonight's events

February 8

Lovely patterns in line with the teleconnections continuing to materialise with a great setup for some significant snowy cyclonic developments from February 11th through at least 1 week thereafter as low pressure from southwestern America / Mexico moves Northeastwards with a track as mentioned previously through Northern and Northeast America and particularly Newfoundland and Nova Scotia

Heading through week 3 of February remains the next significant setup for potential wintry conditions with a building high in Greenland and retrograding Scandinavian trough as energy connections begin with the trough in the Atlantic

February 8

Views on Lanark cams showing what I was generally expecting with snow falling but ground temperatures being a bit unsupportive for laying snow. Though snowstorms can have fairly large differences in snow depths across short distances which I'd not be shocked seeing repeated.

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February 8

With the flow starting to switch into the East this gets some north sea convection going as can be seen on the radar between Stonehaven and Aberdeen, a cracking view of this here currently..

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February 7

Quite an intriguing storm system this and I did always say the orientation would be a big player as it usually is when looking at snowstorms, generally the more elongated cyclones are better with cylindrical being less so and looks as if we'll get a combo this time.

The ground temperatures also tell a great story

We see during the approach of the storm ground temperatures are roughly 0 to 1C.

With the #1 ingredient the Dewpoint these start the day below freezing for many of us and itl be a gradual movement to less favourable

These give an idea that many of us could have snow falling but having a tricky time laying, then more of a wintry mix.

Another factor is the wind, hence why IMO it still deserves to be reffered to as a snowstorm with a large swathe of the precip being snow and gusts being such as ..

Significant waves being drawn into the East Coast too

Check the windchill values some parts with at least 3 consecutive days of sub zero windchill and as the storm moves north some places nearing minus double digits

Normally one of the key parameters I watch for snowfall is the 528 dam but interesting in this storm it actually isn't present during most of the snow.

The actual isotherm tells a story fitting what I've discussed as the snow height gradually increases.

With snowstorms even tweaks in parameters which may seem small often have large affects, I say pretty much all of us are probable to see snow falling just a question how much can lay given the ground temperatures and winds though again all of us cannot discount a dusting at the least.

Heading through the remainder of Feb week 2 and into week 3 it's looking lovely with the building of high pressure likely some good sunshine on offer as covered in my post yesterday the wet conditions become focused into Italy and the Ionian, Adriatic and Mediterranean regions as our current storms energy transfers into a cut off low.

Though this is not the main period of interest with regard to further wintry conditions its not without interest, though the 850hpa temperatures are probable of being above average

The flow will be switching toward more of an easterly which could give below average surface temps during this timeframe

With continuing retrograding into week 3 of February the blocking heads northwest to Greenland and the Atlantic and Scandinavian trough become our focus.

Moisture plume w Jet Interaction from the Caribbean has begun

February 6

Very detailed outlook discussing the dynamics from this point and extending for the majority of February 🌨🌨🌨️️🌩

February 6

Super amount of work went into this one 🌨🌨

February 6

Longer post showing the dynamics at play leading into week 2 of February [and beyond]

Starting with developments for the rest of February week 1 into the start of week 2 as mentioned in my post here

"I do expect we'll have the PNA getting more into a negative setup during week 1 of Feb into the first part of week 2 with feedback of MJO phase 6"

'With the influence of more of a -PNA paired to MJO phase 6 I'd not be shocked seeing potential for a storm as the associated troughing crosses the UK between February 8th > 12th''

To understand the dynamics at play for the next major event for the UK / Ireland we need to look at events which have taken place over in Newfoundland and in particular Nova Scotia

This is the same cyclone which will come into the UK and Ireland through the February 8th - 12th period.

The influencing section of the Jet Stream for this system can be tracked from the Caribbean Island Chain into Portugal and the UK

On the Northern and Northwest flanks of the snowstorm we'll have the potential for significant amounts of snow, I wouldn't be one bit shocked seeing areas within the region of a foot of snow perhaps a bit more with current signals of these totals into the Pennines perhaps parts of Scotland, Ireland also a possible area of Northern Wales.

"Also increased threat of flash flooding into Portugal and extending across southern Europe in association with an increasingly strengthening Jet Stream in this region also within that timeframe."

As southern parts of the UK remain in a milder sector of the storm and connected to the section of the Jet Stream mentioned above the flash flood risk could extend into England perhaps Wales with a chance of thunderstorms. This flash flood threat looks to also move into Morocco places such as Casablanca and Rabat with some snow as it moves further inland.

During this timeframe we also see the Maritimes High extending into the US East Coast feedback from the trend to more of a negative PNA and MJO phases 5 and particularly 6

As the UK storm and associated troughing gradually moves East it will see quite a rapid weakening as an increasingly strengthening area of high pressure begins to develop further to it's east. This will force the trough energy southwards and this becomes a cut off low into Italy and the Adriatic, Inonian and Mediterranean also regions a bit east of here.

This leads into my discussions from my post here

"Looking to the 2nd and latter half of February with the MJO currently being in a phase 7 for the last days of January This gives the following feedback

From my post on Thursday which is linked above

''With continuing phase 6 starting to transition into phase 7 and pairing to a re emerging and strengthening +PNA as we get toward and past Mid February there will be lots of tantalising charts''

During this timeframe we'll also see a VERY impressive negative Arctic Oscillation with values perhaps exceeding those which preceeded the severe cold outbreaks of December 2023 and January 2024.

During February week 2 the 500hpa setups will begin to retrograde taking us into the MJO phase 7 patterns with a retrograding trough moving Southwest through Scandinavia and potential for further snowstorms toward Nova Scotia - Newfoundland and from Canada > Maritimes through Northern and Northeast America, also developments in line with the +PNA of cyclonic systems from the Gulf remain a possibility.

Full sequence

Also during week 3 of February the ongoing stratospheric warming looks set to keep intensifying with possibilities for a 2nd reversal of zonal winds this winter

I first discussed the liklihood of stratospheric warming in my post here

February 5

As the Gulf Cyclone moved east northeast it produced a plethora of tornadic supercells with a significant tor in Valdosta Georgia

February 4

Quite a significant flash flood event for Northwest > West Scotland over the next day or so due to the boundary of cold and mild air which creates a bit of an Atmospheric river.

Little update on the snowstorm / blizzard, still coming in for this timeframe and many outputs still looking tasty

February 4

February 3

On 29/01/2024 at 14:25, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Continuing trough and noteable cold across Alaska too.

On 29/01/2024 at 14:25, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Looking to the 2nd and latter half of February with the MJO currently being in a phase 7 for the last days of January This gives the following feedback

I'm really liking the CFS for this period already matching really great.

January phase 7 does give a window for colder conditions from the Northeast perhaps Easterly at times.

Further excellent representation continues to frequent the expected timeframes.

Following on from my post here

"As things stand we're looking at at least two weeks of the MJO being active in the Pacific roughly January 24/25 through January 7th but the extended data is supportive ATM of a 3rd week still prominent within the Pacific Taking the progress into / nearer Mid January "

Again the CFS has performed best and my overall thoughts above are generally how it's going, there is an interesting trend over the past few days between the CFS and GEFS suggesting a significant slowing of the MJOs progression out of the Pacific, i suspect this could have a bit of the stratospheric warmings influence here and also keeps the trend of said warming to continue further beyond mid February which is already being suggested within multiple modelling.