knocker

As long as we don't run out of Phosphorus.

Well the 06z GFS is certainly not agreeing with the ECM but more in line with the METO for the weekend. Friday shallow low south Irish Sea and wet. Saturday 1005mb south west of Oslo and Sunday much the same position and filling 1010mb. Light n. airstream for last two days and too early for any rainfall predictions. Having said that this scenario would be better than the ECM interpretation

The first Sea Ice Outlook of this year has been published. The SIO is now organized by the Sea Ice Prediction Network (as part of the Arctic research program 'Study of Environmental Arctic Change', or SEARCH), and is a compilation of projections for the September 2014 Arctic sea ice extent, based on NSIDC monthly extent values. These projections are submitted by professionals as well as amateurs (public outlooks). Here's the summary for the June report: Read the entire report here. http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/06/search-2014-sea-ice-outlook-june-report.html

Latest SST anomaly

Quite frankly Fender your guess is as good as anyone else. The best place for the opinions of weather garus is in the bin. I'm afraid the way things are regarding the models at the moment it would be a brave man who put money on the weather next week let alone August. Still seeing that it's Wales wet would probably be favourite.

And regarding North American weather recently. It has been rather odd with heat in the west and east and far north. And some extremes seem set to continue.

I dunno. Your old neck of the woods isn't doing so bad but in N. Canada it's been very hot. Forecast to cool down a bit.

I've succumbed. The ECM and METO can't agree on movement of low over the weekend. Given the positioning of the low and fronts and other variables the intensity, type and location of precipitation at this time is way above my pay grade.

The anomalies for the beginning of July. Regarding the GFS this translated surface wise to basically to HP over Greenland with the Bermuda-Azores high where it's been for a while with the Atlantic tending to dominate with the position of the jet supporting this scenario. And yes I know pure speculation but I'm sure others will be covering Glastonbury in detail. Mind Saturday looks pretty foul.

Niño 1+2 region anomaly (just offshore S. Am) spiked to +2.1ºC this week. Highest since the week of June 10, 1998. pic.twitter.com/1tXcjrk5A8

A touch if Ci. Fog Temp13C Calm Pressure 1022mb falling

Maurice Newman’s flight of climate denialist fantasy takes off from Cobar Airport http://www.readfearn.com/2014/06/newmans-flight-of-climate-denialist-fantasy-takes-off-from-cobar-airport/

End of the month with the ECM ens

Don't know whether this is of interest. An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress http://www.pnas.org/content/107/21/9552.long

One could argue that a transient ridge is hardly settling things down. 48 hours later.

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2272.html http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/millions-die-early-because-smog-3743879#.U6cco2QPmG0.twitter

Special Report. California Drought: Snowmelt's path shows impact from Sierra to Pacifichttp://www.mercurynews.com/drought/ci_26009266/california-drought-snowmelt-path-shows-impact-sierras-pacific

Rainstorms, floods plunge China into emergency response http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2014-06/21/content_17606604.htm

Looking at the ECM ens for the weekend I think I'll still contact Mystic Meg.

A quick glance at the anomaly charts for beginning of next month. Singing from the same hymn sheet is still elusive.

A sign maybe that the Bermuda-Azores high is not making significant inroads north PM.

One okta of cloud but this is quite interesting. It looks like Ac Cas. but is too low IMO. So then must be high type 1 Cu. A bit of a reporting nightmare. temp 13C Wind NNE light Pressure 1013mb falling.

One okta of cloud but this is quite interesting. It looks like Ac Cas. but is too low IMO. So then must be high type 1 Cu. A bit of a reporting nightmare. temp 13C Wind NNE light Pressure 1013mb falling.

Afraid I don't but I see the 18z GFS is going for a wet day on Friday.

Unique and unnatural: modern warming from an historical viewpoint http://simpleclimate.wordpress.com/2014/06/22/unique-and-unnatural-modern-warming-from-an-historical-viewpoint/