knocker

The GFS still plugging the change for Glastonbury.

Record Rainfall in Sioux Falls, South Dakota http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=282

Minnesota’s Current Weather Disaster — Don’t worry we’ll be fine.

Re, Glastonbury GFS 06z. All change. Dropping the low west of Ireland and for the Thursday, Friday Saturday has HP SW of Ireland giving a dry, tranquil three days. The only wet area is Scotland as a low skirts around north of there.

Tut. Have you been naughty William?

Melt widening and more extensive across whole West coast #Greenland sig sublimation losses too http://polarportal.dk/en/groenlands-indlandsis/nbsp/isens-overflade/ … pic.twitter.com/Nmyo9wsXSZ

As SS rightly says the ECM ens isn't as bullish as the ops. The upper air still has a weak ridge just to the west of the UK and the cold Scandinavian air further east The result it doesn't develop the low. Although I'm not sure I'd have too much confidence in this either.

Now looking at ECM ops for Glastonbury. Grim. The 500mb anomaly completely loses the ridge to the west and has the cold Scandinavian air stretching to Greenland and influencing most of the UK under an unstable westerly flow with the cold pool still west of Spain. Not good news for the surface analysis. Thursday not too bad with a shallow low west of Ireland and dry in the UK. But by Friday the low has developed and is 992mb over northern Scotland giving a strong NW in southern parts with frontal activity, Saturday the low 988mb is west of Norway and the AZ high is centred west of Spain pushing NE. This leaves the UK in a strong NW with again fronts affecting the south. Still there so much fluidity in the set up at the moment I'm sure this will change, probably by this PM.

How is it looking this morning for Glastonbury with the GFS. The 500mb anomaly is not looking quite so clever. The ridge is quite weak and situated to the NW of the UK. Cold air running from Scandinavia down to Europe and also south of Greenland giving a westerly flow over the UK. Surface analysis for 00z Thursday. Ridge fro AZ high extending NE into UK giving calm dry conditions, Low west of Norway with a front affecting northern Scotland. Friday Still holding on to the transient ridge but developing low 400miles SW of Ireland entering the fray with another low pressure area over France. Still dry in England and wet in n. Scotland. Saturday Things get a tad complicated. The ridge slips south and the low pressure is just to the west of Ireland bringing wet weather there and to most of the UK. Sunday Very unsettled. The ridge has now slipped SW leaving the UK in a westerly airstream with low pressure west of Ireland and a trough poking into Scotland and troughs nipping across the UK bringing quite wet conditions.

Ah didn't realise you were looking for that site John. For a simple explanation of the pressure gradient. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/wxwise/seabrz.html

Another brilliant morning here with clear skies which I can't really appreciate due to a bloody sinus attack. Temp 12C Calm Pressure 1028mb

Pacific Ocean remains primed for an El Niño in 2014 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

A poignant read and photo. "What started out as another storm chase in NE Nebraska turned into a defining moment for me as a human being" https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=304446489730682&set=a.159122920929707.1073741828.100004959993887&type=1&fref=nf …

Warmer-than-normal weather to continue on both coasts through at least July 1st. Record high of 97ºF today in DC. pic.twitter.com/1H9TOIXius

D.C. sets new heat record for date, 97 degrees http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/06/17/d-c-sets-new-heat-record-for-date-97-degrees/

A little infographic to illustrate our prediction in the context of #ClimateChange. Numbers are from our model. pic.twitter.com/QkliLKwVun

From the feedback I must admit to being quite surprised, I thought the next observation would have been that the GW supporters movement had it's roots in Nazi Germany. Oh well.....................

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-67#entry2990461 I asked myself one simple question when I read the above. Is it indicative of your mindset, and others, that you use the word 'supporters' of global warming?

Luna Halo https://www.flickr.com/photos/54894481@N04/14224451967/in/pool-metofficeweather

Deleted

Neat graphic Tornado simulation? Nope... just the 35-year downward spiral in Arctic sea ice. pic.twitter.com/P1mRSfwDbz via @PaulHBeckwith @GParctic

This is the only link I've found John. If I may add as usual an excellent explanation. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/38567-the-mechanism-behind-a-sea-breeze/

Vanishing water http://www.desertsun.com/longform/news/environment/2014/06/14/global-warming-southwest-water-supply-drought/10418637/

Jeff Masters on the rare twin tornadoes. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2702

The Tar Sands story continues. Tar Sands on the Tracks: Railbit, Dilbit and U.S. Export Terminalshttp://desmogblog.com/2014/06/17/tar-sands-tracks-railbit-dilbit-and-u-s-export-terminals