knocker

Clear sky apart from a smidgin of Ci. Temp 11C Wind SW light Pressure 1027mb falling.

I was wondering about the ECM ops run J. It's been gradually eroding the warm air over Greenland and weakening the HP just to the west so how will this evolve?

Acidification and warming threaten Mediterranean Sea iconic species http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/06/140612114556.htm

Interests, Ideology and the Climate Denial Machine http://ecowatch.com/2014/06/10/interests-ideology-climate-denial-machine-koch/

Years of drought and rising temperatures influenced by climate change are posing new threats for desert animals in the Southwest, compounding the pressures on species already decimated by decades of expanding development and destruction of habitat. http://www.desertsun.com/longform/news/environment/2014/06/07/climate-change-california-desert-animals/10035779/

How Earth avoided global warming, last time around http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/06/140611143733.htm

Clear skies Temp 10C Easterly ight Pressure 1029mb falling

India’s Heat Wave Is Unbearable pic.twitter.com/Wl76JTDwTN http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/06/11/india_s_heat_wave_is_unbearable_extreme_temperatures_in_new_delhi_mumbai.html

New permafrost is forming around shrinking Arctic lakes http://www.mcgill.ca/newsroom/channels/news/new-permafrost-forming-around-shrinking-arctic-lakes-237010

And if I remember correctly it was referring to an evolution from the SE which did briefly materialise but since then the tropospheric pattern has taken a few twists and turns and evolved differently. I just find it odd that someone can presume that a bunch of amateurs know more than very experienced professionals with access to vast amounts of information, on it seems, a regular basis.

There really is a load of nonsense posted on here at times.

I'm not sure I'm following the point you are presumably making Keith as the whole paper is available for anyone to read.

The ECM ens paints a similar picture to ops but looking to the end of the run and the 500mb anomaly there is a gradual weakening of the warm air over Greenland and the ridge and a trough developing with the colder air from the east and south edging closer giving a more unsettled outlook. This of course is just speculation at the moment.

The ECM ops is sticking to the story it's been running regarding the weekend onwards. The GFS is almost identical this morning including the 500mb anomaly. The ECM also has the warm air Canada/Greenland to the ridge just west of the UK with the cold pool central and eastern Atlantic. The GFS has the jet running south of the Greenland high and then swinging north around the ridge west of the UK The detail regarding the regional weather/temps is not possible to pin down at this stage but in general slightly above average temps and variable cloud but very little precipitation.

Well i hadn't had my coffee ba. Yes the flow is quite slack with the low pressure stuck over southern Europe giving some very grotty weather there. Cancel the holiday. An update with the 00z 500mb anomaly.

The question is where is the HP today? Well not in the same place as yesterday according to the GFS. The 500mb anomaly at 18z. gives the familiar story with the warm air Greenland to the UK with a fairly intense ridge just to the west of the UK and a weak ridge eastern Canada. The trough still in mid Atlantic. Surface analysis. Saturday through Tuesday. High Pressure centred west then north west of the UK 1030mb. Saturday Wind NE with rain affecting all of the east coast. Temps quite warm in Midlands and south but cooler in Scotland. Variable cloud. Sunday Winds more easterly with rain confined to south east. Temps ( midday) mid to high 60s and variable cloud. Monday and Tuesday. Winds easterly with no precipitation and less cloud. Temps on Monday mid to high 60s in Midlands and south but cooler elsewhere on Monday but Tuesday brings some much cooler air into East Anglia, East Midlands and also Durham temps around mid to high 50s.

Clear skies Temp 11C Wind southerly light Pressure 1024mb rising

Yesterday was the 2nd earliest >110ºF day since record keeping began in Fresno, California in 1887

But a day later SB.

The ECM is keeping the HP to the west for the weekend so if this remains the scenario it's thermals for Skeggy. The 500mb anomaly for the end of run shows a break down of the warm air with the Greenland ridge retreating and the colder Atlantic air taking control with a return of unsettled cyclonic conditions for the UK

A mere dribble. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/70204-a-drop-of-rain-at-holt-missouri/

We've just released our new look 5-day forecast pages. See below for a video to guide you through the new layout.

Tropical Storm 02A gaining strength in Arabian Sea -- will head west to more hostile environment off Oman coast.

An interesting article on the above and other papers. Note the quite restrained comments at the end. http://mallemaroking.org/amundsen-sea-embayment/

Further to the above. Dark Snow, the dust factor and the 2014 melt season onset