knocker

Delhi heat wave: No respite as Palam records 47.8°C Read more at: http://www.firstpost.com/delhi/delhi-heat-wave-no-respite-as-palam-records-47-8c-1561377.html?utm_source=ref_article

The ECM ens is not a million miles away from the ops. later next week a suggestion that the colder air to the east may not have given up the ghost.

About right AC, India's monsoon officially arrived on the 6th, six days late

The GFS at 12z 500mb anomaly has the cold air from the Arctic to Scandinavia and eastern Europe. The Atlantic dominated by the warm air with the eastern edge of the Azores ridge over the UK. The ECM upper pattern for the weekend broadly similar. Surface wise this leaves the UK under the influence of the high to the west except briefly a trough from the east pokes it’s nose into Scotland on Sunday. Temps around normal but a tad below in n. Scotland.

Warming climates intensify greenhouse gas given out by oceans

Something you wouldn't want to see.

An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress http://www.pnas.org/content/107/21/9552.long

This sort of heat if it last for any length of time has the potential to kill a lot of people. Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday will be the peak of northern India's scorching heat wave. >46ºC in Delhi all 3 days. pic.twitter.com/7n70TXw8XK

Worked okay just now with a bit of a tussle.

Must admit I can't see a huge difference between the GEFS and ECM except the strength and ridging further east north of the UK of the warm air by the former. (checking the upload)

Don't seem to be able to attach images to a post at the moment.

Daily Synoptic Weather Map Analysis of the New England Cold Wave and Snowstorms of 5 to 11 June 1816 http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-90-481-2828-0_8 This chapter can be found on Google Bools. http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=uKvz3ob0SuoC&pg=PA107&lpg=PA107&dq=daily+synoptic+weather+map+analysis+of+the+new+england+cold+wave&source=bl&ots=gHFuTxTIDa&sig=XlDQgh3LNrf4ImRdynbXWiDF6eE&hl=en&sa=X&ei=syaUU96rO4bvOoKjgaAF&ved=0CD0Q6AEwAw#v=onepage&q=daily%20synoptic%20weather%20map%20analysis%20of%20the%20new%20england%20cold%20wave&f=false

There has been much written about 1816 particularly in the US but whether any charts have been reconstructed I've no idea (at the moment). The general synopsis for beginning of June (sounds like the shipping forecast). There was intense, stationary high-pressure system off the east coast of Greenland in late May. This effectively blocked the eastward trajectory of weather systems, funneling Arctic air southward. As this cold air encountered the warmer atmosphere to the south through the week of May 28-June 4, it brought wildly unstable conditions to New England and Canada. And the exaggerated temperature gradient across the mid-Atlantic latitudes intensified the overall energy of the emerging system. EDIT From temperatures in at least the low eighties, on June 5-6 the mercury plunged forty-three degrees in Boston and forty-nine degrees in Salem, Massachusetts, over the course of twenty-six hours. A similar severe temperature swing of at least forty degrees was noted in Albany, New York, as the cold front moved in.

The ECM anomaly pushes the trough much further east and strengthens the warm air in the eastern Atlantic This gives a much stronger high pressure picture re. the surface with the Azores high just west of Ireland giving a slack northerly flow over the UK with temps around average or just above.

GFS at 00z for next weekend. The 500mb anomaly has cold pool over the Arctic troughing down to Scandinavia and points east. Warm air dominating Greenland and the Azores high playing a key role in the eastern Atlantic and the UK giving a westerly flow. This is not conducive to a surface analysis that makes good reading in the middle of June. Friday Low positioned NW of Scotland 1010mb giving a NW/W flow over the UK and pretty damp in the north. Temps around 60F in north but mid 60s in England. Saturday The low pressure to the east has an extended trough affecting the east of the UK and the high to the south west of Ireland the south and west. A weak southerly prevails but very wet in north. Temps around 60F except in the SE. Sunday The high 1033mb now north west of Ireland giving a south westerly flow over the UK. Mainly dry but the temps again no great shakes low 60s at best. Bring on the ECM.

Bright morning with just a little Cu. Temp 13.6C Wind southerly 16mph Pressure 1014mb rising.

wunderground.com/history/airport/VANP/2014/06/07/DailyHistory.html …

Very odd that scientists haven't heard of isostatic adjustment. Still...................................... Some 15% of Pacific islands wiped out by 1m sea level rise – IPCC - Future climate change driven sea-level rise: secondary consequences from human displacement for island biodiversity http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02736.x/abstract

Well yes. Time for Mystic Meg!

We shouldn't really moan about summer. This date in the "year without a summer" (1816) a snowstorm hit Northern New England with 20" drifts in Danville and flurries all the way into Boston. http://www.virtualvermont.com/history/1816.html It was also the year of a forgotten famine in Ireland that killed 150, 000 that was directly related to the weather.

The ECM 12z 500mb anomaly is not dissimilar to previous run or the latest GFS.. Warm air stretching from Greenland to the eastern Atlantic and the UK. A cold pool to the east of the UK and in western Atlantic. This translates to a surface analysis giving the Azores high dominating the UK from Thursday through to Sunday with the low pressure relegated to Scandinavia eastwards. Generally speaking giving a NE/N flow with average or slightly above temps. As you say ba we shall see.

I assume you have seen this stunning image. http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap130227.html

Regarding sea breeze the Florida panhandle sea-breeze boundary showing up well on Visible satellite imagery

The upper air from the ECM is not dissimilar to the GFS except it doesn't extend the trough down through Scandinavia. Thus it doesn't develop the low pressure over Scandinavia to the same extent and the UK is is dominated by the HP extending from the SW.

Sorry to see you are all having some lousy weather. Quite tranquil in these parts.