knocker

Firstly I have already posted a link to the full paper in the Antarctic thread. Your comment "West Antarctic glacier being melted by magma not GW" is incorrect. The geothermal heat is adding to this effect, not replacing it. so blowing hot and cold is fine. As i noted in my earlier post AW and the illiterati also whipped themselves into a frenzy over this so HotWhopper nipped it in the bud. Or stopped the geothermal flow of hot air so to speak. Geothermal flux, West Antarctica and deniers at WUWThttp://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/06/geothermal-flux-west-antarctica-and.html

How robust is the recent strengthening of the Tropical Pacific trade winds? http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL060257/abstract?utm_content=buffer3d6c2&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Another view of the Paris supercell (via George Papavasileiou)! Amazing base and updraft structure! @reedtimmerTVN pic.twitter.com/wilQrmjLjH

Arabian Sea Tropical Cyclone 02A will move west to Oman, forecast to become hurricane-strength. pic.twitter.com/qt2FlhXj8Y

Needless to say AW and the illiterati have gone into uncontrolled spasms over this. Evidence for elevated and spatially variable geothermal flux beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheetearly release of the full paper at PNAS.

Looking at the ECM ens five day 500mb anomaly means and then the T24o individual is quite interesting. It portrays the slow withdrawal of the Atlantic ridge northwest towards Greenland and the increasing influence of the colder air in the Atlantic. Much along the same lines as the weekly means were indicating. On the surface an indication of a westerly low pressure flow although the ens is not as bullish as the ops.

I just made a post that vanished. I assume it wasn't removed. The ECM ops has the subtle difference with the HP to the west of the UK. A quick look though the looking glass at the ens monthly means suggesting a more westerly, unsettled flow down the line.

Yes the ECM ops has the HP residing to the west of the UK, a subtle but important difference re. the GFS. A quick peak at the monthly ens means which is suggesting a westerly unsettled flow if you take a peak through the looking glass

Nice photo Styx. Looks an extremely pleasant place to live.

Top of the morning folks and welcome to Sun Block weekend with the GFS. The 500mb anomaly on Sunday has a swathe of warm air Greenland to Scandinavia with associated ridges along the eastern seaboard and the other over the UK both aligned SWS. Cold air still Arctic and Scandinavia eastwards. The synoptic analysis is quite simple Saturday through Tuesday. On Saturday the HP is just NW of Ireland and thereafter centred over Scotland 1030mb. Giving partly cloudy conditions for first couple of days then clear skies and a very slack flow over all of the UK. Temps are very warm. These are for 12z Saturday mid 60s to 70F except N. Scotland. From then on gradually warming until Tuesday is positively hot with temps at midday low to mid 70s. Olez

At the moment cloudy with Cu and moderate rain shower, Temp 12C South west light Pressure 1013mb falling

Out of Africa: Nigerian environment minister warns of devastating climate impacts http://hot-topic.co.nz/out-of-africa-nigerian-environment-minister-warns-of-devastating-climate-impacts/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+co%2FRbRF+%28Hot+Topic%29

HWRF 12z & GFDL 12z both take Invest 94E in Eastern Pacific to hurricane status. GFDL stronger than HWRF by 20 mb pic.twitter.com/LolL5combR

Quite warm in California at the moment.

The ECM at the end of the run has the 500mb anomaly with what is suspiciously like a transient ridge just to the west of the UK. Knife edge comes to mind.

The ECM still has the HP SW/W of the UK maintaining the northerly flow and average temps.

Well there is hope, or is there? Pick the bones out of this.

http://www.sfgate.com/science/article/Sierra-rises-quakes-erupt-as-Central-Valley-5532519.php

The Met Office’s outlook for the UK summer 2014 http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/06/09/the-met-offices-outlook-for-the-uk-summer-2014/

Contribution of light-absorbing impurities in snow to Greenland’s darkening since 2009 http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2180.html?utm_content=bufferacd11&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

I had a dream.............................................. It’s all so obvious! AGW is a hoax…no really!

Not much to be said regarding the ECM ops run that is much different to the GFS so i won't say it. The key regarding the regional weather and temps for the UK would appear to depend on the exact position of the HP.

Sorry should have said regarding the 500mb anomaly. I'm having these frequent senior moments of late. I'll correct the post. Thanks.

The GFS thoughts for the upcoming weekend. The 500mb anomaly has the cold pool over the Arctic troughing down to Scandinavia and the cold pool stretching way to the east. The warm air western Atlantic/Greenland with large ridge NS over the UK to Azores high. Leading to a relatively simple surface analysis. Saturday through Monday an area of high pressure to the W/NW of Ireland 1032mb. Northerly winds becoming NE by Monday. Saturday wet over the UK otherwise fairly dry. Temps on Saturday slightly above normal but cooler through the next couple of days and slightly below normal by Monday.

Bright but partly cloudy with Ci and some ragged St. Temp 13C Wind southerly light Pressure 1015mb falling