knocker

But it's not just about food. Of course we can produce enough food to feed twice as many people. That's about distribution. But do have finite reserves of important minerals that are more and more important these days. I'd like to see you justify the statement that 'green' energy is less environmentally friendly than the coal fired power stations we are closing down . Or the shale oil deposits we are opening up.

An update with the ens for period.

Next weekend the ECM ops gets quite droll. The 500mb anomaly shows an ridge west of the UK with latter being attacked by a pincer movement of the cold air to the NE and the upper low to the SW with some success. On the surface all is reasonable well on Saturday with HP hanging on tenuously but come Sunday and Monday the low to the south has continued to stick it's beak in and the cold air to NE is also staking a claim leading to a temporary breakdown in the fine weather in the south, east and especially the north. Some quite cold air being introduced with negative 850s in the far north but this, I suspect, will be modified later. Oh the joy.

Drought in store as El Niño’s western cousin to grow stronger http://theconversation.com/drought-in-store-as-el-ni-os-western-cousin-to-grow-stronger-27826

Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v510/n7504/full/nature13327.html

I think there is a problem with resources when one considers resource depletion. Several studies have concluded that we are, indeed, approaching a point at which the gradual depletion of low-cost mineral resources is becoming a major limitation to economic growth and even to maintaining the present level of economic output. The problem of dwindling mineral resources is all the more crucial because it is arriving in tandem with accelerating ecosystem disruption and rapid growth of the human population. Global temperatures are rising, severe weather events caused by climate change are increasing, and a host of further problems, from ocean acidification to droughts and loss of biodiversity, are before us. These problems can't just be boiled down to the perils of "running out of something" or of a modest increase in atmospheric temperatures. Instead, they represent a complete transformation of the whole Earth's ecosystem, generated by the human influence on the planet. The need for action is becoming more and more urgent. We need to face the problems of ecosystem disruption and mineral depletion with better efficiency in all sectors of industry, with the use of renewable resources, and with the development of effective recycling processes to lengthen the life of the remaining resources. Food is the least of the problems.

Best ignore the 06z GFS and mark it, "will not verify".

Not sure I'd like today's 06z if I was going to Glastonbury. It has a low with associated fronts moving in on Wednesday 25th..The low over Scotland by Thursday and into Scandinavia by Saturday. Total grot for two days.

This fantastic graphic clearly explains what an ElNiño winter means for North America pic.twitter.com/W7lhqT216x via @NOAAClimate

Interesting video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTLgpd4Wyxw#t=11

The ECM ens 500 anomaly not so bullish with the western movement of the eastern cold air or the the incursion from the south with a ridge still in place to the west of the Uk. The jet is shooting around this ridge to the north. perhaps a build up of heights from the SW in time for Glastonbury. That's my punt anyway but off to consult Joan the Wad for confirmation.

900mb wind speed.

Taking a peak into the future and the GFS is going for a breakdown of the HP/warm scenario by early next week. Following the evolution of the 500mb anomaly Tuesday of this week has the warm air Greenland to a ridge just to the west of the UK with a trough in the western Atlantic. There then follows a fairly rapid transition in the next few days. The warm air over Greenland weakens and moves south with a weak ridge mid Atlantic. An upper low forms mid Atlantic and moves east to a position west of Spain whilst the same time the cold air over Scandinavia intensifies and moves west north of the UK. On the surface this has the affect of moving the HP westwards with a low west of Spain. This develops further by the beginning of the following week with low pressure adjacent in northern France. By Tuesday the low is over Cornwall with moderate rain. Just as well this won’t verify.

Cloudy with St. Temp 13C Wind NW light Pressure 1026mb falling

Any particular reason the cold temps in SA are not in the relevant weather thread?

Can you see this breaking down quickly J? Seems unlikely to me but then...............

The ECM ens is similar to the ops apart from dropping the 850 temps a bit. The 500mb anomaly is essentially the same.

Looking at the back end of the ECM ops run there seems no obvious reason for the end of the fine spell. In fact it's quite warm. The 500mb anomaly shows the quite intense HP west and over the UK with the cold air stretching eastern seaboard/Greenland/Scandinavia. The cut-off low west of Spain remains just that. Surface remains under HP with a front edging towards N. Scotland. Very respectable temps apart from N. Scotland.

Hopefully you and the NMME are correct. New June NMME today shows classic El Niño rainfall pattern for US this Oct-Nov-Dec. Above normal rains psbl for CA. pic.twitter.com/glI5vPHUqq

Also near Abilene, TX last night: Chihuahua head size hail... pic.twitter.com/97KfFO9MLe via @svrwxtweets & @NWSAmarillo DVD-sized hail fell yesterday near Abilene, Texas https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=807477562597477&set=a.376992752312629.94660.208741279137778&type=1&theater … via @NWSAmarillo pic.twitter.com/pt2TTKTQfA

Drought Outlook: ‘Disastrous Consequences’ If 2015 Is Dry http://blogs.kqed.org/science/2014/06/11/drought-outlook-disasterous-consequences-if-2015-is-dry/

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2700

That's why I've ceased posting Mushy.

Purely as a matter of interest the latest ECM monthly mean anomaly.