knocker

Continuing looking at what the next weekend has in store with the GFS. The 500mb upper anomaly has a deep pool of cold air over the Arctic with, very significantly, a trough down through Scandinavia. Another cold pool Atlantic with warm areas Greenland and Europe. Doesn’t bode well. Surface analysis for Friday through Sunday. Friday Low 1002mb over Norway with a trough stretching into the UK giving a general SE flow. High 1029mb to the SW. Temps cool in west low to mid 60s in east. Saturday Low now east Baltic 996mb with the area of high pressure west of the UK now taken over the influence bringing northerly winds. Because of the origin of the airflow not particular warm, in fact decidedly chilly in the east and thermals the order of the day at Skeggy. Sunday Much the same scenario as Saturday with the winds now more NE but the extreme east may just come under the influence of the low to the east. Strong SES winds in the North Sea as a bit of a squeeze between the low and high pressure Forgot to add the jet is quite insignificant.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=278

Cloudy with Cs, Ac and a little Cu. Temp 13C Wind southerly light Pressure 1008mb falling

Cloudy with Cs, Ac and a little Cu. Temp 13C Wind southerly light Pressure 1008mb falling

Regarding next weekend still no 500mb anomaly conformity between the GFs and ECM. The latter has weakish warm zones running Canada around to Scandinavia and Russia with a warm pool in the eastern Atlantic covering the UK. with a cold trough mid Atlantic. This allows high Pressure to build in the Atlantic and the east over the UK with an isolated low stuck south east of Greenland. Temps in the UK hovering around the 70s.

Some problems attached to forecasting in the US Frustrating Bureaucracy Leads to Ridiculous Tornado Forecast

Latest GFS has front lying Devon at 00z with some developing rain in mid Channel. By 06z this rain has developed to cover most of the Midlands and southern England. At 12z the front lying NW/SE across central England with rain covering the latter apart from the SW.

Heating up in Central Valley California. 100° to 108°, hottest on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/qbeWSoa4Be

Quite clear here now and warm at 17.3C. trouble is quite breezy with a SW 25mph gusting 40.

Yes and still quite interesting with this multi-layer Ac.There would appear to be some Ac Cas. at the lower level estimate around 7000-8000 feet. Some slight rain just now.

The Lake That Supplies Vegas With Most of Its Water Is Now at Record-Low Levels http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/06/05/lake_mead_which_supplies_most_of_las_vegas_water_is_at_record_low_levels.html

Another 5-day GFS tropical cyclone -- this time in Arabian Sea, powerful at 962 mb pic.twitter.com/1no7F2Mnfm Not sure what model he's using but had a look at the 00z and it has it 984mb 12z Tuesday. Not significant on with the ECM.

Regarding the next weekend the GFS and ECM upper anomaly are still at odds but the surface analysis is pretty similar. I'm afraid I had a senior moment during my earlier post which i have corrected.

Morning all. With this weekend looking a bit of a write off a look at next weekend with the GFS. The 500mb anomaly has a deep pool of cold air over the Arctic with a trough stretching into Scandinavia. The warm air is centred over S. Greenland with a ridge in the eastern Atlantic with an arm stretching SE into Europe giving a WSW flow over the UK. The surface analysis for Friday through Sunday. Friday A huge area of low pressure covers most of eastern Europe and Scandinavia with a centre over Stockholm with high pressure to the W/SW leaving the UK in a trough bringing showers to the North from the easterly. Apart from Scotland and the west temps touching the upper 60s. Saturday Low still in the Baltic with trough extended to the North Sea but the high pressure has gained ascendancy giving a northerly flow over the UK. Temps good in England but lower with rain in Scotland. Sunday Low now south of Norway bringing strong northerlies to the North Sea but the UK still in the northerly flow from the anticyclone to the west. Wet in England and Wales and temps fairly depressed except in central and southern England. Confidence naturally very low that this will actually pan out of course.

I'm sure we agree Tasboy it's one of the most interesting aspects being researched at the moment. I posted a snippet in the history section yesterday on similar paradox when the Arctic ice melted in a cooling world. Took years to reach a tentative conclusion on that one.

With a weak warm front in the vicinity some rather complex medium cloud with Ac at two or three levels. Temp 13C Wind SE 15 mph Pressure 1008mb falling

With a weak warm front in the vicinity some rather complex medium cloud with Ac at two or three levels. Temp 13C Wind SE 15 mph Pressure 1008mb falling

Some interesting cloud today. Ranging from some small Cu to two layers of Ac with Cu and now a veil of Cs with Ac and some type 1 Cu.

Probably a Sc HP.

A huge sandstorm and record winds killed at least four people Monday in Tehran, plunging Iran’s capital into darkness during rush hour and forcing thousands to run for cover. http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2014/06/03/Freak-Tehran-sandstorm-kills-four-dozens-injured-.html

Deep Future: the ultimate destiny of humankind http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/deep-future-ultimate-destiny-of.html

Just bought a book (really must curtail this) by Ugo Bardi, Extracted: How the quest for mineral wealth is plundering the planet. Should be an interesting read.

A new study unequivocally points to humans as the cause of the mass extinction of large animals all over the world during the course of the last 100,000 years. http://scitech.au.dk/en/current-affairs/news/show/artikel/climate-not-to-blame-for-the-disappearance-of-large-mammals/

GEFS looking at slightly above average temps next week

Being in introspective mode today I got to musing awhile about an interesting puzzle that baffled many for years. That was why, in the summers of 1816 and 1817-while the inhabitants of temperate zones from China to New England shivered and starved-, the Arctic Circle basked in relative warmth and shed its ice at an amazing, unprecedented rates? Answers to why this should be so may be found in studies of the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines. The Pinatubo eruption has served scientists well as a model from which environmental impacts of the nearby Tambora event might be extrapolated. A notable consequence of Pinatubo's eruption, and the global cooling it produced, was the "substantial decrease" in rainfall overland for a year following the eruption and a subsequent "record decrease" in runoff to the oceans. The cause was the chilled, volcanic atmosphere, which repressed evaporation and reduced the amount of water vapor in the air. Put in its broadest terms, reduced solar radiation in Pinatubo's aftermath altered the flow of energy through the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, with significant implications for the global hydrological cycle. Accordingly, the first post-Pinatubo year, 1992, witnessed the largest recorded percentage of the global landmass suffering drought conditions. A recent computer simulation of the influence of volcanic activity on global climate since 1600 produced the same "general precipitation decrease" in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere, especially pronounced over land. In the case of Tambora, a volcanic event six times the magnitude of Pinatubo, hydrological disruption at the hemispheric scale must have been nothing short of catastrophic. In 1816 and 1817, with extreme drought conditions prevailing across the high North American landmass, the Atlantic Ocean received only a fraction of its standard allotment of warm freshwater discharge from rivers and streams. As a result, surface waters in the North Atlantic became colder and saltier, sinking with greater force. The subsequent destabilization of the water column in turn enhanced the motive energy of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Convective currents released increased quantities of heat into the Arctic Circle, melting the ice cap, while a bulked-up southward current delivered great volumes of Greenland glacial ice into the Atlantic. The increased surface temperatures likewise inhibited the formation of new ice in the subpolar region, hence the magical-seeming open seas visible from the mastheads of British whalers off the coast of Greenland in 1816 and 1817. Volcanic enhancement of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is produced not only by reduced air temperature, which suppresses evaporation. Wind also plays its part in draining water vapour and energizing ocean circulation. Gales swept across the North Atlantic with unusual force and frequency in the Tambora period. A major tropical eruption enhances the normal gradations in temperature between the equator and the poles. Differentiated temperatures in turn influence the density and pressure gradients that power winds, strengthening wafts into breezes and stiff breezes into gales. For the North Pole region, this meant an amplified, positive phase of the Artie Oscillation, its major circulatory weather system. These stronger-than-usual winds further cooled the sea-surface temperatures of the North Atlantic, adding to the positive inputs at work on the AMOC. In short, environmental change in the Arctic in the Tambora period was driven mostly by changes in oceanic currents and winds, which overrode the general atmospheric cooling of the planet. And because wind and ocean currents behave nonlinearly in response to atmospheric change, the Arctic ice pack was vulnerable in turn to extreme transformations. References Gillen D’Arcy Wood, Tambora:the eruption that changed the world, Princetown University Press Effects of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on the hydrological cycle as an analog of geoengineering Kevin E. Trenberth and Aiguo Dai http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/adai/papers/TrenberthDai_GRL07.pdf Volcanic signals in oceans Georgiy Stenchikov, Thomas L. Delworth, V. Ramaswamy, Ronald J. Stouffer, Andrew Wittenberg, and Fanrong Zeng http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~atw/yr/2009/stenchikov_jgra_2009.pdf