Polar Maritime
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Posts posted by Polar Maritime
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There are always the same precorsions whether cold or hot, for which are naturally taken into consideration at 6 days out, but the models and MET have continually shown a PM flow bringing with it an unsettled cool down by the weekend for a good while now, how cold/cool is the question, there will be some big temperature differences with the far South holding on to average temps, while the North could well see below average. As I said a few posts back "time will tell" but I dont expect anything out the ordinary for the time of year.People are acting like the cold weather is confirmed.
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Yes Frosty, as I and others have been saying, by weeks end there is still good potential for some Wintry weather especially from the Midlands North over high ground, with even short lived low level coverings possible in any heavy bursts giving evaporative cooling with hail/sleet.
And with the crap Winter we have all had it would be nice to see some white stuff before Spring proper arrives, time will tell..
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It was pretty bad but there a couple that were worse. I'm afraid I can't manage dates these days but one of the worst experiences was in a F10/11 and I was out filling the radiosonde balloon (which was dodgy anyway) when I suddenly realised the wind was blowing into the balloon shed which meant the ship wasn't hove to into the wind. The blasted cold front had gone through whilst I was out there.
With hindsight I'm amazed nobody was killed over the years as in 60-80 foot seas the balloon deck was periodically completely underwater. Fortunately you got to know when this would happen so you clung on to whatever was handy. The dodgy bit was when you were actually launching the balloon when you were completely exposed. A good friend of mine got caught like this and got washed along the deck but luckily got away with broken ribs.
Well time to get the violin out........................................
Thanks for the little insight, would of loved to experience the vast power and strength of the high seas. The worst i have been in would be a F4/5 while out charter fishing in the North Sea, but that's not a patch on F10/11.. You must have had balls of steel!
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Some great shots there MS of CMD Arete, about as Alpine as it gets!, planning on getting up there early April after the next unsettled spell. Very dangerous conditions up there now with massive cornice collapses.
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Iv'e a bet you have many an interesting story to tell from being out on the high seas Knock.., not everyone's cup of tea!
Was this the worst storm you endured during your time on a Weather Ship?
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Showing 26.6c in the direct sun light here, not bad.. 7c in shade.
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My bad
Still I must say that from the models, the only white thing I will see in the morning will probably be going in my breakfast cup of tea
Maybe an Atlantic ridge will rise from the depths in future output to bring cold air down from the north, otherwise it just looks rather wet with low pressure residing close to the UK after a rather cloudy and average first half of the week.
Edit - Nice unrealistic low resolution run from the GFS there. How it pulls a blocking high to our north east from T192 I have no idea
Yes, don't expect snow in the morning Capt, as the models have never shown such thing. The end of next week looks much more promising if it's Snow your after, especially from the Midlands North over high ground.
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Cloud is now clearing here with long sunny spells, but still very blustery.
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Hmm the GFS really need to fix their model as those predictions looks way over the top considering the predicted air temperatures
6-9C here
Surface pattern shows it being pretty windy, but not enough to create very low wind chill temperatures.
These are the MAX surface temps for the same time period as the Wind Chill chart i posted.
Your chart posted is for mid-day..12noon. no wonder you thought the model needed fixing..
Even then it will feel bitter with frosts catching the early Spring growth if left unattended. -
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After a temporary decrease in wind strength during the late afternoon it's been another windy evening here with a mean speed of 39 mph, gusting to 59.
Yes T.M, another windy night and morning here gusting 53mph,
Currently cool overcast with a blustery N/W Wind here, Temp 5.6c
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This Wind Chill chart shows just how cold it could feel by next weekend
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A very disturbed Wintry look to the GFS this morning, with a much colder Polar Maritime pattern now setting up until at least the end of the month, with wintry showers rattling in from the N/W, especially across the Midlands North where it will feel bitter in the wind, time to get the thermals out !
Also in line with the ECMWF
FI the cold and unsettled theme continues with the Jet way South of the UK.
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Very ambient Knock, nice pics there..
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Wind has really picked up here, was not expecting it this strong, now gusting 52mph
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Down the local Middleton Dale here there is masses of frog spawn on the mud flats at the edge of the river, which is slowly drying up as it does every year due to poor river management and local mining, is it best to move the spawn to another location or let nature take it's course ?
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Correct nothing screaming Winter... But could well be colder than anything we have had all winter, so on that note a Wintry spell seems apt going by the latest model runs.Typical cold incursions during Spring, nothing screaming Winter in the model output at all in my book?!
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Fog has lifted here, but very hazy.
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Yes Karl, the models are slowly firming up on the cool/cold unsettled spell from around the 19th, pushing cold Polar Maritime air S/E across the UK. Will be a shock to the system after the settled spell we are currently having, with snow showers even down to low levels, and a biting wind with -4/-8uppers covering most of the UK. This could be a colder period than we have had all winter !
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A nice sunny afternoon here again after the Fog lifted, top temp 14.8c.
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Yes we nearly have full on lift off here..
Temp 11.1c
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Getting there slowly.. not clearing as fast as i thought. Some nice sunny spells now here.
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Fog starting to lift already here, hopefully would of burnt off within the next hour. Temp 6.3c
Even then it will feel bitter with frosts catching the early Spring growth if left unattended. 
Model output discussion 13th Feb onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Sunday looks nippy..