Polar Maritime
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Posts posted by Polar Maritime
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M9.3 solar flare this evening around sunspot 1996 near the west limb.
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Aye Triple, he was certainly trying to tell me who was boss ! Strutting his stuff on top of that rock he was, the place wouldn't be the same without them.
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Hot days (nothing over 30c as work outside and it's hell !) and cool nights, with storms. But no drought please..
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Went for a stroll up Ringing Low early'er, was a little hazy but other than that can't grumble, Top temp 12.8c, but still feeling cool in that wind !
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Crystal clear blue sky's have now opened up !
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Fog starting to clear now with the sun burning through in places.
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Fog is persisting here although not as thick as early'er, feeling cool again in the N/E breeze. Temp 5c
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Yesterday was glorious according to my climbing friends on Ben Nevis, plenty of sun cream was used ! some massive cornices starting to drop now so picking routes carefully. Hope people play safe over the next few weeks as things are on the move.. Another bluebird day today with perfect conditions, could be the last for a while as more unsettled conditions start to move in Thursday with Storm Force winds and snow by the weekend.
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Thick Fog, Temp 1.3c, E/S/E 2mph.
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I think one of these is needed here this morning..
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Can people not except others opinions.. It was 9c here yesterday which is mild for my location in March, but it felt very chilly in the N/E wind !
Another run from GFS still showing it's wild swings out 7 days in FI, hopefully over the next 2/3 days we will have a better picture on the upcoming cool and unsettled spell as it creeps into the reliable time-frame.
Yes Knock, a big drop in temps for the US next week again, a 30 degree difference in temps by Thursday !
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GROWING CHANCE OF FLARES: Sunspot AR2002 poses a growing threat for solar flares. Since the week began, the active region has more than tripled in size. It now has more than a dozen dark cores and sprawls across 100,000 km of solar terrain. http://www.spaceweather.com/
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Yet that is mild for your altitude in March!
Correct, and yet it still feels cool in the N/E wind !
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Clear blue skys here now after a cloudy start. Feeling cool especially in the N/E breeze, Temp 9.8c.
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But it was consistently shown up on many runs at 9/10 days out then kept getting pushed back, obviously if it is going to happen it needs to get closer to the reliable time frame to even start to believe it is going to happen but it never got any closer.
As one very good poster pointed out yesterday the models are having a difficult time past day 5 at the minute and to expect anything at day 9 to verify is just hopecasting.
The MET are very keen on a cooler unsettled end to March and have been for a good few days now, maybe they are hope-casting to...? I doubt it. The models we have access to are still playing/toying with the idea.
It's all about timing and trends im afraid, not one run, And the over-ruling trend is that of cooler unsettled conditions to take over by last 1/4 of March. A typical March affair is what i expect.
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Looking majestic up there today, still battling every morning to clear the lifts.. Lovely bluebird day for the lucky few who have managed to bunk off work!
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Indeed this settled spell however was picked up quite a way out in FI by the models
Yes Gav, as was/has this cooler unsettled spell for over a week now.
The settled spell is now upon us for the next few days.. overcast here 3.7c.
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I'm waiting for the Ecm 00z ensemble mean to see how that is trending rather than paying much attention to the op..hoping for a cold snap beyond the rather cloudy benign anticyclonic interval...yep I'm a hopecaster and proud of it!
Yes Frosty, At worst we could be looking at a few Northerly topplers maybe..
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As people will have learned with last "winter" until any cold snap / spell comes into the t144 range and lower extreme caution should be take at all times regardless of what agreement we have shown
The same applies with a warm snap Gav...
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Ext ecm now saying no to any cold spell developing, with everything being pushed further east - as we saw all winter. What is of interest, is how cold the eastern us/canada is forecast into the mid term, with colder air once again leaking out into the Atlantic - and we know what that can mean for the UK.overall, disappointing for coldies. Seemingly, the ens led us up the garden path, again!
Plenty of time yet as the models get to grips with the change to cooler more unsettled weather for the last 1/4 of March, Nothing disappointing this morning, as timing being another week/10 days away, expect many more variations over the coming days. M.E.T are still very confident in there outlooks, will be interesting watching it unfold as usual.. But im not expecting anything other than a typical March affair.
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CRACKLING SUNSPOT: The eastern limb of the sun is crackling with M-class flares. http://www.spaceweather.com/
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Yes John, The M.E.T have indicated the change to cooler and more unsettled weather last third of month for a few day's now, it's interesting watching the models pick this up, hands up to the GFS for spotting it first! The timing is the difficult bit as usual. .
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18.5c in the sun here now
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CONTINUED CHANCE OF MINOR STORMS: NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of minor geomagnetic storms on March 9th when a solar wind stream is expected to brush against Earth's magnetic field. http://www.spaceweather.com/
Solar and Aurora Activity Chat
in Space, Science & nature
Posted · Edited by Polar Maritime
ALMOST-X FLARE: Departing sunspot AR1996 erupted on March 12th at 2234 UT, producing an M9-category blast that almost crossed into X-territory. http://www.spaceweather.com/