Polar Maritime

Yes as stated by the Met Office update earlyer this morning.

Good to see the GFS on board at last, even if it is at the end of the run. CFS also looking good for quite a potent N/NW after around 222hr http://www.meteociel...&carte=0&run=10 which could easly turn into a N/NE airflow in the later stages.

Do you mean Polar Continental ?

http://www.grough.co.uk/magazine/2012/01/02/family-pays-tribute-to-teenager-in-scafell-pike-tragedy R.I.P It's been a cold raw day here, With the odd snow shower blowing through on a N/W wind this evening. 2.5C

Yes, pretty amazing. Think i will get the scope out. Thanks for pointing this out, i would'nt of noticed otherwise.

Consciousness is something that science has never been able answer.

Some promising sighns from the charts today if youre a cold fan. Certainly a change mid month showing at last. But to what degree... Who knows. Still lot's of flip flopping in the models befor things start to firm up with details over the next week to 10 days. GFS has been hinting this change from the Zonal rutt for the last week. ECM's also starting to show the Vortex Splitting and weakening. And getting more proggresive with it. Some real interesting model watching now. Thank God ! Looks like our patience has paid off. Happy New Year.

I would say for me in my location it's been a fairly average/normal December.

Nature will win. Nature is infinite, Humans will eventually go extinct. The Earth is only a small part of natures infinite scale. Happy New Year.

2.7C is my guess. Happy New Year.

http://vimeo.com/21294655 some very nice footage here.

Hi Tellow. I think you need to change the title of this thread as this is confusing some people. To "write off" winter i dont know. My answer is the time i would start to get worried, as you state above.

Is it that La Nina winters keep the Jet Stream in a more Northern track... Which helps keep a much stronger Polar Vortex = Harder to get Northen Blocking.....? Just my 10 pence worth

It's been a very stormy day here with severe gusts & heavy persistant rain. Which is more than wellcome after the 4th Dryest year in this catchment area since records began. Im very surprised there's not been more discusion about this event. A max gust of 67mph.

I would say for deep cold/snow 2nd week in Febuary. But remember we can still get heavy snowfalls and frosts in March, as we did last November which isn't even a winter month. I would'nt be worrying yet, we are only 1/3 into Winter proper.

Going on past experience, The modols always flip/flop about a little when they can sniff a change on the way, This does not mean there will be one. This has been the case now for the last 4/5 days. We have a long way to go befor/if things start to firm up on the ouput's regarding deep Cold/Snow. Typical British Cool Zonal winter pattern for the next 10 days. With colder interludes clipping the North of the uk from time to time, which could bring some big dumpings for the Scottish Highlands, and maybe a wintery mix here in the Pennines from time to time. We should get a good idea what January has to offer over the comeing week. Nothing is set in stone at the moment.

Thanks WX, & CR. Very informative posts, Im new to this subject so im still learning. Keep the updates comeing Merry Christmas http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smiliz19.gif

Hi WX. Could you tell me if this recent Solar activity will produce any kind of Aurora activity. And if so how far South could this be visible, If weather conditions are on our side ? Thanks.

I saw one of these cloud formations yesterday while walking the mutt. It's the first time i have ever seen one, and was quite spectacular, just a shame i did'nt have my phone on me to take a picture typical...

Im shure there is a sence of realism when we are all looking at the charts, Thats common sense. The charts this morning are the best we have had all winter. As others have stated the Polor Vortex had to give at some point, and its now starting to show in the models at last.

GFS looking very promising at the end of the run http://www.meteociel...?mode=0&ech=204 The Jet Stream is heading south at last. Very cold from N N/E. First sighn's of a pattern change showing in the models. Things are starting to look promising ! Merry Christmas Everyone !! :smiliz19:

Think Jeremy Clarkson...... Its a joke. Merry Christmas everyone, here's hopeing a cold and snowy Feb/Jan !

Yes in thinking Phillip White would be more knowledgeable than me on the subject. I think i will leave this subject with you, its well above my head and im clearly not up to date with the fine details. Is this jan... or W.S ?

Temp 0c Wind Chill -5.4c Dew Point -3 Wind blowing heavy Snow showers around this morning on a N/W Wind. Gusting to 28mph at times. Around an inch here, but with this snow now falling it should top it up nicely. Will be going a nice walk with my mutt later i think

There are two major soughs draining this area, with Hill Carr sough being the one of major interest. This runs from near Youlgrave on the banks of the River Bradford right down the Lower Lathkill dale to the River Derwent in Darley Dale. It was once large enough to take a rowing boat a very long way up it and is still quite a substantial stream even today, despite a number of rock falls. The other sough that affects the river is the one draining the Magpie Mine into the Wye upstream of Ashford in the Water. Modern folklore has it that in the 1970's potholers blew out an underground obstruction in this Magpie Mine area which materially affected the height of the water table underground, right over to the head of the Lathkill Dale. Whilst scientists dispute this, there is little doubt in the minds of many locals that the river levels in the upper and middle reaches of the Lathkill were never the same after that incident. Who knows where the fissures in the limestone are and how far underground they travel? Add to this areas of tufa - a form of very porous limestone - and you have a tremendous amount of underground water percolation.