bobbydog
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Posts posted by bobbydog
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5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
Vortex all over the shop, anything is possible. Let’s play spot the rabbit
The GFS seems stuck on the rabbit...
While we wait, here's the next frame on the previous 12z run-
massive differences at day 10...
No fine margins there, this is not resolved by a long way...
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5 minutes ago, Beanz said:
It’s not a case of giving up on winter, it’s completely the opposite - you’re showing snow charts at +10days away, they’re about as much use as a handbrake on a canoe. They’re not even accurate at +24 hours!!
i'm well aware of that...
its an example of the possibilities still open. you might not be giving up on winter- but some are...
im not...
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Strange....
The GFS is showing snow, somewhere in the UK, on 12 of the 14 days it covers. Virtually every part gets some, with some significant snowfall shown.
for example-
Even my snow starved location is shown to get it on 6 days out of 14...
Yet people seem to be giving up on winter already. looks to me like we're all in with a good shout...
I'd be happy with just one snowman's worth, so my youngest daughter can build her first ever. (she's 10 in March!)
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8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
I do like to be positive, but too much positivity can mislead - so, calling a spade a spade, ECM ensembles tonight have 50% runs with a white Christmas in Scotland, 20% for some areas midlands/north, and maybe 5-10% for the south.
Considering many op runs had a white Christmas on parts of the south coast in the past 48 hours, probably wise to wait 2 more runs until firming up predictions any more, though.
give it another 48 hours, i'm sure someone will be fairly confident of a white christmas....
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16 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
The mood here is far too downbeat, given what the 12z data actually shows:
If a few of you lowered the bar & took a more glass half full approach, this place would be far more tolerable.
or if people remembered that the weather controls the models... not the other way round....
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a couple of points...
solar activity doesn't work that quickly... so let's leave that for now.
a white christmas was only briefly on the cards and who really expects one anyway?... (though its still on for some...)
in reality, the upper atmosphere is in chaos. there's nothing "zonal" in the output, the professionals have stated how much uncertainty there is due to this. short term, the south of the country looks to be having a near miss but its still game on for the north - for xmas anyway...
beyond that, we have a potential warming -
(someone said earlier it's only a displacement - it is in this frame but its only at the beginning stage. give it a chance lol)
don't worry. this winter still has a few surprises up it's sleeve yet...
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A long way off I know but at the end of week 2, the GFS is fairly similar in the overall pattern to the CFS (regarding the siberian high).
GFS-
CFS-
Look what happens a week later on the CFS-
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2 minutes ago, snowhope said:
Pretty sure snow in March or April is more likely than December!
Probably... but it's also much more likely in January or February...
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Hmm...
A little too much desperation in here on only day 5 of winter. December snow is fairly rare, yet a few people have already had a decent amount. Some of the most memorable snowy winters didn't get going until January or even February. Even the famous '62-'63 winter started its main event on boxing day, currently outside of the range of the models...
Anyway, the GFS is throwing up some far from "uninteresting" scenarios.
This storm we are expecting in a couple of days looks impressive on this chart-
this is the wind gust chart for the same time-
further on at 216 hrs (probably too far out to be accurate anyway), this chart looks fairly unimpressive for most of the UK-
However, this is what that would translate to-
Anyway, I'm certainly not giving up on winter yet...
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I'll take the control at +384hrs
I'm not desperate...
honest...
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Just a snapshot from November 1962...
You just never know....
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3 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
Came to post today's Masie, which after the last week is very mergh...
But before that I still have no access to the NSIDC data, and the snow looks more interesting today across the North..
It just displays a home page that has nothing on it apart from USNIC.
Did you have to or are you already registered?.
By the way from your maps above the sea ice now looks identical to me to 2010...... One can but hope...
Masie today an increase (breather?) of just (+21K), to a total of 7,748K Km2)..
Baffin (-7K) and CAA (-8K) again struggled.
All other areas recorded no real change except for Kara (+18K), which is now in high speed re-freeze mode.
One thing that has caught my eye today though is the Arctic DMI average 80 degrees temperatures. (Produced from ECM data).
These have dropped by a large 3C in the last couple days. In actual fact from 258.9K to 255.8K (-15C to -18C).
I had been expecting a fall but this is quite large by current standards.
(By the way there is still no change in the Arctic anomaly data though which is still at +2C).
I have noticed in the past that a large increases in ice extent seems to encourage further temperature falls.
Looking at Climate Re-analyser (GFS), I can see that the major change is in the area of ESS/ Laptev/ Chukchi.
These are the areas that have 'suffered' the large sea ice increases (and also temperature part falls) recently.
They are still higher than the rest of the Arctic, but have cooled by quite a bit. Now I understand that the water vapour will stop any rapid drop in 2meter temperatures, and that this seems to be the reason for it.
The problem I have though is that looking ahead to the 3day and particularly the 10days outlook profile ----
We can still see the same 'warmth' profile. This despite the fact that all of Laptev and ESS will be iced shortly as will most of Kara, Beaufort and Chukchi, and hence I believe will drop to similar temperatures to the rest of the pack at that point.
It would appear, therefore that the outlook forecast temperature maps do not take any updated 'forecast' for the ice outlook.
To check this out it would need to see the outlook for the snow and ice map for 10 days time. But none is produced!!!!.
This is clearly yet another symbiosis situation of which causes which. Does the ice formation cause a temperature drop due to less moisture (which keeps the temps up) OR has the 'new found' cold just caused the ice to freeze?
It does seem to lead to this apparent symptom of sudden drops in temperatures forecast only after the sea freezes over.
I will have to check again in the Spring when refreeze takes place to verify.
MIA
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Hi MIA, they updated the website a while back and I discovered my link didn't work. After a little digging, I found it again.
Try this-
IMS Snow and Ice Products
USICECENTER.GOVU.S. National Ice Center's Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) section for daily Northern Hemisphere snow and ice products. -
Latest update-
Very little change from yesterday, plenty of snow forecast in the coming days and we should see advances into Western Europe soon.
All looking good for now...
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1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:
Statistically speaking it's the snow cover south of 60N which is important to the AO feedback so actually the current pattern is probably not good Vs a year like 2012.
That said the SAI has not performed well, 2016 was notably stellar and flopped.
As you say, Cohen's SAI theory hasn't really held up. From my observations over the years, the advance of snow cover into Western Europe, regardless of how much is south of 60N, has been more important for the UK.
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Just for comparison, here are the same dates for 2009, 2010 and 2012. (3 winters with memorable snow events)
2009-
2010-
2012-
I don't think we can draw any conclusions from these really, just a case of wait and see...
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11 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
How does it compare to last year? Also I think there’ll be a massive expanse over the next week or so
BFTP
Not much in it compared to last year regarding snow, maybe a bit less. Not really an issue at this stage, so long as it advances into scandi (which it is..) Arctic ice is much better though.
Last year-
This year-
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6 minutes ago, snow freak said:
At least you lot in the east and south east have had 'some' snow. Here is Swansea, south wales, the most we've had are a few flurries and hardly anything settling. Can't believe even the Channel Islands get more snow than we do here.... and the are an island hundreds of miles further south. Go figure!
Well at least you enjoyed "at least one decent snow event" in every one of the 35 years you lived in the south east....
Haven't had a "decent snow event" for 8 years here in Horsham....
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3 minutes ago, matty40s said:
The base model Evoque is only 2 wheel drive.
Hairdressers car...
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30 minutes ago, fujita5 said:
In my experience, more off road vehicles end up in ditches than any other type because the drivers seem to think they can drive however they want because they have "special" vehicles.
Very true. (Though I wouldn't call most 4x4's "off road) I've owned Land Rovers for 9 years and I'm well aware that though I have more traction, when it comes to braking on ice and snow, it's the same as any other vehicle. You have to know how to drive them...
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4 minutes ago, jright35 said:
The end is near unfortunately
Not necessarily, the end you refer to 'might' allow convective showers to start, like further north.
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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:
Not here unfortunately, looking at the radar I'd have thought there would be something to show but Nada on the ground or anywhere.
Admittedly not much, but you might see something falling out of the sky in the next couple of hours...
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Ok, winds taking on a slightly more easterly direction. Light snow showers feeding through to west and south Western areas of our region. Some who thought they would get nothing might get a dusting at least. For me, it's probably going to need a Thames streamer to fire up. Keeping a close eye on the Thames estuary....
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6 minutes ago, lottiekent said:
Hello! My parents live in Capel Court Park so probably not a million miles from your mother in law then.
It’s very pretty up there isn’t it? Has its own climate at times; often snowy or foggy when nowhere else around it is.
My dad said they were up to 3” at lunchtime and it hasn’t stopped all day so they must be approaching 6” by now.
Hi lottie, everything you said is true, except I was talking about Capel near Dorking, apparently there's a Capel near Folkestone as well
Our Capel nearly always gets snow when we get none and its only a few miles up the road.
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20 minutes ago, masked_firefly said:
Just popped my curtains open - I live pretty much a Lampost!
honestly didn't think it would still be going here tonight earlier this evening!.
Lampost watch a go for tonight! Currently mini blizzards everytime the wind whips up!
That 'Fuzziness' around the lamp? It's snow!
Nearly spat my beer out when I read the first line of your post...
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Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Just been browsing through the archives and out of curiosity, bearing in mind the ideas and hints being put forward that we might see something colder beyond the range of the main models, I focused on 1990-91. What I found is that the hemispheric profile and weather patterns are remarkably similar to now and what is being modelled on the GFS. (I recall xmas '90 being wet and mild and January being cold wet and windy) Beyond that 2 week range, we ended up with high pressure over us (similar to what the Met Office are hinting at - frost and fog for the latter part of January)
We also had a displacement warming, not a particularly strong one either, very similar to what is being modelled now...
I know it's a long shot and people would rather not wait but @feb1991blizzard didn't pick his name at random....