[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Started well here about 9am, had a decent covering within half an hour, my 8 year old daughter got all dressed up to go out and build her first ever snowman. 

Then it turned to rain/sleet and melted within minutes....

One disappointed tearful little girl 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

Just now, nick sussex said:

This evolution unfortunately is possible if you get this early phasing .

All the se momentum to the cold stops.  These phasing issues will remain unless you get the ECM type evolution which is much cleaner with a large gap between the low heading se and the low near the Azores .

 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

For all 'Les Miserables' in here...

(ECM 240)

 

"I dreamed a dream"...

[Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?]

Ok.... we want the low over Iceland to stall and sink..

This was a much weaker feature on the ECM

Let's see...

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

5 minutes ago, Alexis said:

I think everybody needs to temper their excitement. The only model showing anything interesting is an experimental beta that never usually gets mentioned!

Worth mentioning though, the GFS(P) to which you are referring, becomes the operational next month..... 

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

Hemispheric patterns are something to watch for...

I've just seen the ECM at 240 (yes ... I know...)

It immediately reminded me of this...

Just saying...

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

4 minutes ago, wolvesfan said:

Evening all

spent years watching the models,very seldom they are wrong,even more rarely they backtrack.nothing but cold rain in the output and tbh anyone who can see anything but,are kidding themselves. 

Well thats a result then because the GFS has been showing snow for me all week! 

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Unfortunately patience is going to be the key word as we wait and see if we can tap into the bitter cold spilling into mid latitudes. 

I think we're looking at post the 20th of January.

That could well be the case. Though I think we will still see huge swings in the output in the next few days. 

Patience could well be the key...

 

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

4 minutes ago, Trom said:

Yes but how the algorithms cope with such rare event's it uncertain.  It's way away from climatic norms.

Exactly. That's my point... 

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

I do chuckle when I see comments like "the models haven't got a clue" or "they haven't factored in the SSW yet".

They do and they have....

They are computer algorithms fed with a vast amount of information regarding current atmospheric conditions. The fact they vary so wildly right now, demonstrates the fact that these conditions are very volatile due to the fact we have an SSW happening at this moment and subject to change at very short notice, hence the multitude of possible outcomes we are seeing. They are also fed this information at different times. So what data one model is given, may have changed by the time another is given its input. 

So, what the models are showing us is that the weather itself is currently highly unpredictable.... 

Whatever happens, just watch and enjoy the show....  

[Model output discussion - Into 2021]

5 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Good. Is there an earlier chart? The earlier the better.

Ok, well here's what's happening right now-

 

And here's a week's time-

We'd normally see temps of down to -88c in a strong vortex. As you can see, its a shadow of its former self in just a week's time.

(It's trying to look happy but it's a strained smile...)    

 

[Model output discussion - Into 2021]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But i have seen these things before, it started with an uptic in temperature graph at the end of both main suites, saw it coming and when i told people they laughed, and now people are starting to see it in reality, its like they just cannot bring themselves to admit it, it happens every year.

12z GEFS.

But then we haven't seen a smashed polar vortex like this in years. 

Seriously mate if you want to see the vortex any more split than its going to be, you're gonna need one of these...

[Model output discussion - Into 2021]

2 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Or as I see it, according to that chart, the Atlantic train is forecast to have lost its engine by 16 days from now.

Long before then mate. Thats just the nuts and bolts the scrap men left behind...

[Model output discussion - Into 2021]

I wouldn't discount anything verifying at this time, however unlikely it seems.

However, those worrying about the Atlantic train returning, don't....

The train has lost its engine... 

[Model output discussion - Into 2021]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Torrential rain for most of the south.

Before the low slides south and east, dragging in much colder air from the north and east....

[Model output discussion - Into 2021]

Hold your horses, nearly there...

If the centre of that low keeps heading ESE, everyone is in the game...

 

[Model output discussion - Into 2021]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Ha no sense of humour..

216 ECM crucially shows residual heights over greenland which is very important in sustaining the cold spell  > which is somewhat expected given the eastward momentum is rapidly decelerating...

The irony.... 

Anyway, I think we need that Russian high to hang on as long as possible to let the low sink further and give us a cracking cold easterly feed 

[Model output discussion - Into 2021]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

As said its not going to drop....

Look at the nose...

Look south for the squeeze up for energy flushing the continental cold WSW

 

Just don't write "Kent" on it again... 

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

Happy New year!! 

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

Ok... point to note... these are '2020' charts we're looking at. At midnight, we're hoping for a happier new year... 

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

15 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Errr  .  Synoptically? Jetstream?

BFTP

Honestly? Not sure Fred but I'd like to see the next chart after 240, 

Would that low sink enough to allow the heights over Russia to link up with Greenland? Maybe?.. I do hope so....

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Look where all the incredible cold has gone...seeped away from North America to Siberia and Greenland

 

haven’t seen that...what would that mean and lead to?

 

BFTP

An incredibly cold Siberia and Greenland?....

[Model Output Discussion - Into the new year]

9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

South of the M4 event tomorrow according to HARMONIE 12z at T33:

But at least some of us are seeing snow on this run.

Yep. GFS still going with it also,

 

Meto forecast update still says snow risk with warnings still in place. I believe the weather icons are produced from raw model data and updated hourly. This has actually increased the snow chances for me here in Sussex.

This is going to down to radars and lamp-posts....

[Model Output Discussion - Into the new year]

28 minutes ago, West is Best said:

This may fall on deaf ears but I continue to urge caution. The easterly scenario is by no means nailed on. With these ensembles I continue to think it's 60:40 high pressure will settle (topple) back over the UK after the northerly:

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into the new year]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Bartlet?

'Bugger' off...