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bobbydog

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    Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    51 minutes ago, IDO said:

    So some indication as we head through FI that we may get a three-wave mid-lat blocking pattern. At the moment it does not look like a long-term quasi-amplified wave but that could change assuming the signal is correct:

    GEM Control, GFS 06z and GFS 12z:

    gensnh-0-1-348.thumb.png.2cdf73acc331d153ca96d02e1bdc7e7c.pnggfsnh-0-330.thumb.png.234ea26178ee9a2a5b01e853b5685edf.pnggfsnh-0-312.thumb.png.c09bedf6a0336ead45c8e4d0bef80174.png

    Of the three waves the one in our sector seems to have the most potential to dig further north. It is where the troughs fall that could see the UK hit by some of that bottled up cold? Keeping an eye on this development.

    Before that we have the HP for 5-days followed by repeated attempts by mini-ridges to give us a cold flow, again all subject to where the high sits and upstream variables.

    Certainly interesting potential with the usual caveats.

    Well I never...! IDO being optimistic??!!

    Dust off the sledges!! Winter's back on!

    • Like 26

    Model output discussion - into Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Mcburns said:

    Loves a "break from model watching" does our Damian. As if it's gonna magically make things better on his return.

    It probably won't but why depress yourself watching the same old rubbish churned out by the models. It does change, it can take time, so why not concentrate on real life in the meantime? Weather/model watching can become an obsession. It's good to take a break sometimes... 

    • Like 9

    Model output discussion - into Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Maybe there is some hope for this winter. Pure speculation of course but maybe the GFS is showing us the route out of this "zonal" rut. We have a very strong, monster of a trop PV in the latter stages of the run-

    gfsnh-0-252-2.thumb.png.cdce2d50cca3201cebbbdcd534eaa4cd.png

    However, with what's going on 'up there'

    gfsnh-10-372.thumb.png.912908c5083a3a18da56f04c2f3ae02c.png

    It's enough to de-stabilise the PV causing it to rip itself apart by the end of the run.

    gfsnh-0-384-10.thumb.png.6c66097d9b4e7836450131a386ee7513.png

    You just never know....

    • Like 7

    Model output discussion - into Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, swfc said:

    The theme is mild tho tbh not really mentioning snow etc on that update.that said they were not great last year but havnt been far off with this year generally mild and unsettled outlook

    Ah, no, they only mentioned "considerable uncertainty". It was me who mentioned snow. The GFS has shown the possibility so it's not off the table...

    Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

    Best chances of cold weather usually happen at the start of the new solar cycle, especially if it is an odd to even solar cycle so I have little hope this one will deliver much as we are even to odd this time. Best chances of cold are around 2029 to 2032.

    Going by the 11 year (roughly) cycle, we are at the equivalent of 2008/2009 by timescale and we have surpassed the space-age record minima this year. There was a decent snowfall in february 2009 and 2009/10 and 2010/11 were two of the snowiest winters I have experienced since living in the south east (30 years) after moving down from the north east. Obviously there are no fixed rules where the weather is concerned but we are long overdue a decent spell of snowy weather. Bear in mind some of the most memorable snowfalls have only really lasted a week or two...

    Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Blessed Weather

    1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

    Basically a load of tosh. We’re looking for -5/-10 850s and we’re getting +5/+10 instead. Relentless since October, wind and endless rain. Loads of areas suffering flooding....I didn’t think in September that autumn and the first chunk of winter would be this bad. We’ve seen 1/3 of it pass us by with literally nothing to cheer. It’s a bit of a sorry state.

    Not great is it? I had some optimism for this winter due to the deep solar minimum we have entered.

    Model output discussion - into Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just to reiterate what Carinthian said regarding model volatility and of course the fickle nature of the weather itself, here's a snapshot of the 00z-

    uksnowrisk.thumb.png.ab139532634281494bc237f3b65cb7bf.png

    It shows a countrywide snow event lasting a few days. However unlikely it is, it at very least shows we are not necessarily stuck in a mild rut for the rest of winter.

    Keep the faith- things can and do change at very short notice....

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    Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Why all the doom and gloom about F.I.?

    The trop vortex is showing no signs of getting itself together,

    gfsnh-0-384-8.thumb.png.56f1233789daf101c6316dddcba94486.png

    The colder 850's are creeping ever closer,

    gfsnh-1-384-1.thumb.png.a2a84d6eed8458744d35a143e904eea2.png

    And the strat, which is always more reliable in modelling terms, is showing a potential warming event.

    gfsnh-10-384-7.thumb.png.56609c598d9dc9becd10dada7c3228b6.png

    This only takes us up to the 3rd of December!

    Give winter a chance, it hasn't even started yet....

    • Like 22
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