[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

GFS is a mess...

A very cold mess...

And it still manages to deliver the goods

( for some reason I can't upload the precip type charts but they show copious amounts of snow...)

You know, this stuff -

uksnowrisk.webp

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Write off the GFS?....

We see the classic 'angel fish' 2 wave pattern taking shape here- 

GFS(P) (last available run)

GFS op -

And.... December 1962 -

If my land rover sees this, there'll be a puddle of engine wee in the morning...

 

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Well... I've been very busy over the past week, moving out of our house, so not really been keeping track of the models or even the forecasts.

Just seen today's FV3 and the meto forecast and nearly spat my coffee out!

My land rover must have seen it first and spat it's turbo out!

Still, I suppose it's better it's happened  now than having a blown turbo in the middle of a blizzard....

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

5 minutes ago, Ashme said:

It's all I need to control my language!

 

Blizzards everywhere........

 

Oh no it's I need to control my language!!

 

2ft of powder snow incoming!!

 

Maybe not................we've had at least 7 pages of this! Let's just stop the sniping!! It's not going to make any difference to the weather! 

Children should be seen and not heard! Pipe down and just listen to the more knowledgeable people on here. No need for half of the comments.

Probably this one too, but I'm ready to leave this group, even though I never contribute as I'm nowhere near as good as most in here but it's getting beyond a joke!!

 

Sorry mods

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Just now, swilliam said:

This is a forecast nearly 15 days away

If you carry on posting like this, it'll only be 2 days away...

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

4 minutes ago, Simon SWales said:

We went through exactly the same situation 4 years ago, same day too. Thoughts are with you and your family. Only consolation I can give is it is only bricks and mortar. Hope all works out for you.

Thanks mate, if it comes to it, I've got 2 decent family sized tents in storage-  that'll teach the kids some survival skills!  

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

I came back on here tonight hoping to see some positivity. (I shouldn't really, I've been here long enough to know how it works), yet we are in the midst of a December SSW, a very rare beast. It could and should, give us the winter we've been waiting for, for years. It might not... however, we are in the best position we've been in for years. The models are struggling with an outcome and it's a fact that an SSW will play havoc with numerical weather prediction. We (My family) are losing our home on the 7th January. We will be ok somehow. One of our Netweather members has just been given the all clear from cancer. Is it really worth any animosity over the weather? Something which is out of our control?

 It's Christmas eve tomorrow, real winter weather is coming (allegedly at some point...)

Just enjoy the hunt for cold and have a merry Christmas.... 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Having looked through the final frames of the GEFS, it seems our main choices are snow, a monster storm or both at the same time...

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Just had a thought... @Glacier Point 's "torpedo" is still out there somewhere.... unexploded....

Sudden Stratospheric Warming?...

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Isn't that just a warming, rather than a sudden one? At 10hPa, it has begun to drop back down, so I would expect it to do so on the 30hPa in the coming days. 

Looks fairly sudden to me. Bear in mind that's the temp reading over the pole. As the PV is displaced, we should see it continue to rise. Unless the warming made it directly over the pole, we wouldn't see the true peak of temps in that chart.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

While we're waiting for the 12z, good to see the SSW is well underway- 

And I found some good learning material for the newbies.

...

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Snow. 

And so it begins.... 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yes, i detect a step change in the gefs low res ………..

Many showing building HLB, wave 2 activity, strong signals that we'll be seeing some epic eye candy charts in the next few days.

This forum should be buzzing!

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Only just looked at the panel GEFS.

There's some crackers in there at the end of the run!

It seems at least the ensembles are picking up on major changes...

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

3 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

.......In other words In January it's possibly going to get a little bit colder?

 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Ok....

The SSW is due to be in full swing around Xmas eve. The approximate time-lag for the effects to be seen in the troposphere is 2 weeks.

That theoretically takes us up to the 7th January before we see a response.

The current range of the GFS extends to the 4th January.

Therefore, (in theory) we shouldn't be seeing any response in the models for another 3 days.

Now consider the wording of the Met Office forecast-

"Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds."

No problem there as far as I can see.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The GFS 18z is absolutely dyer.

It can't be that bad...

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Here we go... this is a trend we want to see repeat and improve as we head to new year-

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

And the Jet Stream is off to Spain!

Olèèè olè olè olèèè!! 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

8 hours ago, CreweCold said:

It was looking a lot more impressive just two days ago. However, a lot can change (deteriorate) from a modelling perspective in that time.

I maintain, the split SSW event was imperative for the progression into Jan. When you consider a descending wQBO and a SPV not satisfactorily pulled apart, getting any meaningful HLB in place going forward is going to be a slog (NOT saying it would be impossible by any means).

Several hours later.... It's looking impressive again...

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Oh well, winter's over then... 

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

10Hpa temps are at -80 in the vortex core at day 16

But not in the last GFS(p)- which is due to become the new operational in January.

Is everyone giving up on this SSW before it's even happened??

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

5 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

GFS OP has now given up on the SSW. Deep cold recovering quickly after a minor warming. What do the GEFS say?

Sorry, which planet are you referring to?