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bobbydog

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    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    Oh my f**king god.

    How many times does it need saying?

    1. The amber doesn't expire until tomorrow midday

    2. Widespread heavy showers & streamers are going to follow later, tonight, and through much of the day tomorrow.

    Stop calling it a "bust" just because your area hasn't been buried by 10 foot of snow yet. The event has barely even started.

    To be fair, there has been less snow than forecast up to this point. That is probably due to the delay in the colder temps arriving,  which has left ground temps slightly on the high side, making it more difficult to achieve laying snow initially. The MetO forecast is still going for heavy snow for the south east area. As you say, I think the heaviest falls associated with the warnings will come from showers and streamers. The problem will be how far inland the showers make it and the direction of any streamers 'if' they set up. Some will hit the jackpot whilst others will miss out (probably me lol)

    • Like 1

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Anyway... don't give up hope just yet...

    I was looking at the fax charts for tomorrow and noticed this little fella...

    20210207_050138.thumb.jpg.42a6ecb68f0c740b6be83f8fa733cbfa.jpg

     

    It's for around midday tomorrow.

    Here's the NOAA explanation-

    TROugh of Warm Air ALoft. Typically used during winter weather, it is a "tongue" of relatively warm/moist air aloft that wraps around to the north and west of a mature cyclone. ... During a winter storm, the heaviest snowfall amounts frequently occur along and north of the TROWAL axis.

    Game on still?... 

    • Like 5

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, snowrye said:

    It all kicked off in the mad thread, and some unsavoury words were used by mr murr

    So he got banned... not before time... 

    I had his number a long time ago. He was a fairly knowledgeable 'snow-ramper' who never admitted when he was wrong...

    It grated on me how people would hang on his every word when he would say things like "expect upgrades" which rarely actually happened. There are far more knowledgeable and balanced members on this forum who give a much more realistic idea of what the weather is likely to do...

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, Great Plum said:

    Not normally - Epsom is in a good spot for a streamer. The story I’ve often told on here was when my wife got stuck driving back in the snow from Epsom in December 2010 when pregnant - she left at 3pm and got to Reigate at 1.30am!!

    Horsham has been rubbish the last few years hasn’t it? My memories of living in St Leonard’s forest as a kid in 87 and 91 were fun though! 

    I remember 2010 well, I remember offering to go and rescue her, I had a 4x4 volvo at the time. I have a proper 4x4 now, (land rover) which has barely seen snow since...

    • Like 3
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    Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    It is but people don't want to discuss the possibility...perfectly fine for those in the E and S of the UK that are guaranteed snow during the initial spell of cold. However it is more concerning for those of us in the west who will be reliant on something just that little bit more special in order to see a decent snowfall. 

    Hmmm... not all of us Aaron...

    The 2018 "BFTE" delivered about 0.5 cm to my location. It lasted less than 24 hours.  The snow which hit the south a couple of weekends ago, delivered about 1cm which lasted about half an hour before it turned to rain. My youngest daughter who will be 9 in just over a month, has never built a snowman. (She cried after getting all dressed up to go out and then watched it melt before her eyes within minutes...)

    I really hope you, and everyone everywhere else, gets a decent chance at some significant snowfall. I just wouldn't mind seeing some myself for a change... 

    • Like 25

    Model output discussion 24/01/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by bobbydog

    20 minutes ago, Noob said:

    Thanks for the replay Paul, so if thats the case how come models can show complete opposites at the same time frame ? Is there some human input involved or more a case of models see outcomes differently ? 

    Think of the "butterfly effect". The models are computer algorithms which try to predict the state of the atmosphere at any given time. Small changes early on can lead to big changes later. They do use more or less the same data sources but this changes as the weather itself changes. Therefore, due to the fact they run at different times, they will have the new, updated data. Also, they have differing levels of accuracy depending on which part of the world they are set up for. It also depends on the amount of money spent on the supercomputer doing the job....

    The ensembles are the operational runs with slight tweaks to allow for the potential minor changes of the weather patterns, which is why they can throw up so many different scenarios at longer range.

    Hope that helps 

     

    Edit-  Oh... whatever @Paul.... stealing my thunder.... 

     

    • Like 4

    Model output discussion 24/01/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Anyone in the south, who says this is a poor run for us, needs to look at the bigger picture and look at the synoptic evolution and avoid the 850’s. We have a wonderful looking NH profile, very post SSW look to it.

    19E8B408-7149-4205-B9F3-83593F363EEF.thumb.jpeg.5ca3618c51110a2dfb98f2013cc99684.jpeg

    Just look at the Arctic high being matched by the eastern Iceland high. Great alignment to deliver long lasting deep cold to all areas of the UK. The Atlantic low here is set to trigger the colder air further south, and encourage a deep cold air flow across the warm North Sea.

    Of course this wonderful scenario may not come to fruition, but lots of variations would still deliver.  A good day with the models, and one I have been waiting for ( expecting) for a while now.

    Some cracking charts over the past few days really Ed, if people as you say, look at the bigger picture. A bit 'knife edge' for us in the south but I would take the risk for some potential big rewards....

    • Like 8
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