bobbydog
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Posts posted by bobbydog
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6 minutes ago, More Snow said:
Yes i guess so, but the milder air has finally won out here this evening and im having to say goodbye to my 2 days of lying snaw, i feel like ive been robbed by the milder air, snaw stealing poxy Atlantic how dare it. oh well still got around 4 months more when i might see it come back. i for one still think that January is gonna be a stonking month for many of us and it will all be smiles and hugs at the end of the day.
2 days of lying snaw?! That's a whole winters worth down here!
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13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:Well it's the 17th December, a week before Christmas, and where do things stand in model world?
Well unfortunately we seem to have taken a few steps back from only a few days ago. We're about to see a significant warming of the stratosphere but unfortunately what once looked like a split event, now looks like it may only be a displacement. The GFS para was looking good up until yesterday but now even that has gone backwards- we can only see temperatures here but you get the gist-
GFS operational is similar-
It's not bad as far as displacements go, but without a follow up wave 2 warming, the vortex would regroup.
So, what is the upshot?
Well I've always been very clear that the seasonal models showing HLB for the core of winter were, in my opinion, factoring a split SSW event. Without this, I fail to see how we have the ability to pull a prolonged cold outbreak out of the bag. I am not precluding a cold spell sometime early to mid January however, seeing as the displacement could open the door for us (however fleetingly).
I have a nagging feeling, something in the back of my mind, that the much maligned CFS could have nailed this winter season- in as much as it has consistently plumped for a mixed winter period with a sustained blocking signal towards February and March...
Something that Interitus said in the strat thread yesterday resonated with me with regards to it possibly being February when we see another chance to take the SPV down completely- that would totally tally with the CFS prognosis.
I don't think we should be too downbeat at present but the modelling is drifting away from what I wanted to see continue as we headed towards Christmas and we should be aware that the much talked about early to mid Jan cold spell may not transpire in any meaningful way.
Onwards and upwards!
Shut up Aaron! The CFS?? No-one believes in that! Go and write a note to Santa and tell him how sorry you are!
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6 minutes ago, More Snow said:Bloody hell the petty squabbling in here today is probably the worst ive ever seen during winter months.. come on guys and girls lets stop it, yes we are all here to hunt cold and snaw but there is a real world outside with real dung happening affecting real people and yet here we are with you lot all going on at each other like a flake of snaw or not is the be all and end all of days. get a grip.
Really?? Today's nothing! You've obviously missed some of the best ones! There's been some proper handbag swinging in here in the past
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34 minutes ago, Stuie W said:Probably due to me not completely understanding the potential but I`m getting pretty tired of hearing about SSW/charts of SSW in this thread. There is a thread for that.
Sorry not being grumpy but if we are talking about the models then unless someone shows the effect combined with a model chart then it`s a hard watch in here.
To be fair though mate, it's very difficult to provide a trop chart to back up a strat chart. There is usually a delay of around 2 weeks before we see the effects of an SSW. As the longest range we can see ahead in the freely available models is 2 weeks, we can only speculate and watch for signs. We can't just ignore an SSW as this is the type of event we watch for and hope for. Also it will have a huge effect on the model output eventually. Again, also to be fair, this IS a model chart -
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2 minutes ago, weirpig said:
Frosty start on Christmas day? Para 12z
The high is more amplified again. The trend is our friend...
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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:The potential for a very cold Arctic blast is still there, on Day 16...In the absence of any deep cold to our east (none that looks like coming this way just yet, anyway?) a wee bit of extrapolation might just keep our moods up...?
Aye Pete, can't wait to have a potential-ball fight with the kids, build a potential-man, luckily I had potential tyres fitted to my landy the other day so I'm all prepared. Potentially....
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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
But still a pretty hefty chunk over Greenland...
Lets see where EC takes us..
Doesn't necessarily mean bad news though...
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Main core of the vortex on the 'right' side of the hemisphere on this run
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It's worth pointing out to people, that whilst we are expecting a quick trop response to this SSW, they can take anything between two and six weeks to have an effect. So just because we're not seeing much evidence of a response in the NWP, it doesn't mean we won't. In reality, if anything dramatic is going to happen, we might have to wait a few days for it to show up in the models. Nothing to worry about at this stage.
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27 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
Meanwhile, back in the troposphere, we see a continued and growing signal for the return of the trop PV to exactly where we don't want it....
Is it returning though?
From that point, it then begins a slow steady shift towards northern Europe, allowing heights to build towards Greenland-
All hypothesis at that range but sooner or later we'll start to see big changes in the trop profile. How they affect us remains to be seen but for now we're still in the game...
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2 hours ago, bluearmy said:
I have noted that the gfsp continues to show a temperature split but we cannot see the heights re any reversal or split
It's also worth noting that the GFS(P) is due to become the Operational in January.
If that's the case, we should probably be taking more notice of the Parallel than the Op.
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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
I think some of you are expecting Santa to be real if you think there will be a favourable response in the trop to events in the strat before new year ...... it’s just about feasible to expect to see a trop response a couple days AFTER a ssw at 10hpa but given that we have seen poor strat trop coupling thus far this winter, thats certainly not a given - the question of whether we see trop zonal flow ease off in week 2 as upper strat flow weakens is also questionable as often, stronger flow is flushed down through the strat ahead of any downwelling reversal ...... at the moment, I think everything the nwp is showing at 500hpa is trop led ..... that may change as we get towards mid week but I note the gfs ops have backed away from a technical ssw over the past few runs
I don't think anyone is expecting a trop response before new year Blue, anything between now and months end would be unrelated and simply a bonus if it happened.
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17 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:
Can you back that claim with charts from today please
5 minutes ago, Devonshire said:I suspect the comment related to there being a lot of babble on here without any model evidence or discussion - I feel the same. And just as frustrated when a chart is posted with a one liner like 'extraordinary', without saying why, or just '18z' etc. All of which happen now and then
End of the last two GFS runs showing significant ridging -
Evidence that the GFS is toying with a trop response to the strat warming. That would be a quick response as well...
Xmas week aside, the charts could start to get very interesting from now on....
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This chart from the end of the GFS seems to offer little encouragement,
But then this one seemed to offer even less.....
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59 minutes ago, North East Blizzard said:
If only i was at the pub, girls are ill so my evening is pretty unexciting, In all seriousness guy is legit, cant make up the kind of knowledge he has, tbf he is only saying what many an expert is now predicting. Wont post links to his tweets because that isn't something i am comfortable with, Anyway guys on here just as knowledgeable predicting similar, so nothing new, hes just very bullish
Or just full of "bullish"....
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20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:FV3 strat chart at T360:
Total consistency with the 6z and 0z for the split vortex, positioning and all sorts.
Yes it was one GEFS member 30 hrs ago that started this, but this was always going to be the model to show a consistent signal, with ~13km resolution out to day 16.
Well for us that is, seems GloSea5 had the evolution nailed by 3rd Dec!
Yep, GFS(P) consistently obliterates the strat vortex.
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23 minutes ago, IDO said:Yes, changes run to run, but each run maintaining the same theme, just timing and spatial variations. The 06z compared to the 0z on GFS differ but are both pretty zonal from start to finish. If we were getting some blocked charts or some other potential run to run then I would agree on your implied comment, but at the moment (usual caveats) that is far from the case.
D10 ECM mean:
All can change and no doubt will, but when is the pertinent question?
But it was showing blocked charts only yesterday. Which had been "a variation on a theme" It's showing 'zonal' today but it could show blocked again tomorrow, or even later today. Funny you only seem to comment when "zonal" charts are showing...
Anyway, any cold weather before new year was always going to be a bonus. Plenty of "potential" in the GFS today...
And that IS "run to run"
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Yep... second, even stronger warming showing. (It was also there on the 06z) up to a toasty +12°c!
Greeny high not as strong on this run but nothing to worry about, a variation of a theme. As long as that theme keeps showing up, it's all good.
I never get too excited about snow prospects showing in the models until I see the same showing up in the Met Office forecasts.
This time, they are....
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So the GFS gives us a Greenland high,
A white Christmas in The East
And even a little love for Scandi...
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1 minute ago, Dacyfo said:
Hi All, quite new to this and trying to learn but there's something I don't understand. The models are predicting a SSW for just after Xmas. So why the sudden if it's being predicted 2weeks ahead.
It's referring to the speed at which it happens. It's "Sudden" not "Surprise!"
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Well... some of us might see a bit of snow before Christmas. A bonus I think, a taster of what's to come...
A consistent signal for an SSW to arrive around the big day,
Zonal winds predicted to tank,
That's (tantalizingly) as far as that chart goes but it's a reversal from that point.
Looks like my investment in a set of snow tyres was a good one...
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Really.....?
See you next year guys, maybe there'll be no dispute as to professional opinions when we hit the 'epic' winter we've all been waiting for. It really could happen this year. I hope it does. Even though my family could have to temporarily live in a caravan through mid winter. Good luck...
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4 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:
Because its just the norm for UK winters nao is going to go positive I think and also the Atlantic is so warm and mild after that long hot summer we had
Which "Atlantic" are you referring to?...
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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Don't be silly. I only ever post rubbish and I'm still here!